{"id":13805,"date":"2010-01-25T10:15:53","date_gmt":"2010-01-25T08:15:53","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/?p=13805"},"modified":"2011-01-05T21:59:48","modified_gmt":"2011-01-05T19:59:48","slug":"adil-gur-secim-anketi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/adil-gur-secim-anketi\/","title":{"rendered":"Adil G\u00fcr’den yeni se\u00e7im anketi"},"content":{"rendered":"

Yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 kamuoyu ara\u015ft\u0131rmalar\u0131yla se\u00e7imler \u00f6ncesinde en ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 anketlere imza atan Adil G\u00fcr’\u00fcn yeni \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 yine \u00e7ok ses getirecek.<\/strong><\/p>\n

A&G ara\u015ft\u0131rma \u015firketinin yeni anketine g\u00f6re y\u00fckseli\u015fte olan iki parti MHP ve kapat\u0131lan DTP. MHP CHP’nin ensesinde.. Sar\u0131g\u00fcl oylar\u0131n\u0131 CHP’den de\u011fil AK Parti se\u00e7meninden al\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Taraf gazetesinden Ne\u015fe D\u00fczel’in haberine g\u00f6re Adil G\u00fcr se\u00e7menin kimli\u011fi ve tercihiyle ilgili son kamuoyu ara\u015ft\u0131rmalar\u0131n\u0131 26-27 Aral\u0131k’ta ve Ocak’\u0131n ilk haftas\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdi.<\/p>\n

Sadece partilerin ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 oylar de\u011fil orduyla ilgili tespitler de bir o kadar \u00e7arp\u0131c\u0131.. \u0130\u015fte Adil G\u00fcr’\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131..<\/p>\n

Orduya g\u00fcvende ciddi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f<\/strong><\/p>\n

Ergenekon soru\u015furmas\u0131ndan \u00f6nce orduya g\u00fcven y\u00fczde 90 civar\u0131ndayd\u0131. Halk\u0131n orduya g\u00fcveni son darbe ve suikast iddialar\u0131yla y\u00fczde 63.4’e d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc..
\nAra\u015ft\u0131rma yap\u0131l\u0131rken Balyoz daha duyulmam\u0131\u015ft\u0131
\nBug\u00fcne dek T\u00fcrkiye’de orduya g\u00fcven hi\u00e7 y\u00fczde 80’lerin alt\u0131na d\u00fc\u015fmemi\u015fti. \u00dcstelik biz bu ara\u015ft\u0131rmay\u0131 yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda hen\u00fcz Balyoz harekat\u0131 haberleri yoktu.
\nKim daha \u00e7ok orduya g\u00fcveniyor?
\nHer y\u00fcz erkekten 40’\u0131 orduya g\u00fcvenim azald\u0131 derken kad\u0131nlar daha ordudan yana durdular. Orta ve \u00fcst ya\u015f grubundakilerde de gen\u00e7lere oranla orduya g\u00fcven daha fazla d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Bunun nedeni orta ya\u015f grubundakilerin ge\u00e7mi\u015f darbe d\u00f6nemlerinin vahametini bilmeleri olsa gerek.
\nPartilere g\u00f6re orduya g\u00fcvende farkl\u0131l\u0131k var m\u0131?
\nEvet var. E\u011fitim y\u00fckseldik\u00e7e “orduya olana g\u00fcvenim azalmad\u0131” diyenlerin oran\u0131 y\u00fckseliyor. Bunun nedeni bu \u00fclkede e\u011fitimliler CHP se\u00e7menidir. Sadece \u00fcniversite mezunlar\u0131 oy kullansa, CHP bu \u00fclkede tek ba\u015f\u0131na iktidar olur. \u00dcniversite mezunlar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan CHP hep birinci partidir. T\u00fcrkiye’de sadece ilkokul mezunlar\u0131 ve d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck gelir gruplar\u0131 oy kullansa AK Parti y\u00fczde 50’den fazla oy al\u0131r.
\nHangi parti orduya ne kadar g\u00fcveniyor?
\nHer y\u00fcz AK Parti se\u00e7meninin 41.3’\u00fc, her y\u00fcz CHP se\u00e7meninin 24’\u00fc, her y\u00fcz MHP se\u00e7meninin 31’i “orduya g\u00fcvenim azald\u0131” diyor. DTP’lilere yani Bar\u0131\u015f ve Demokrasi Partisi’ne gelince y\u00fczde 71.8’i “orduya g\u00fcvenim” azald\u0131 diyor.
\nAra\u015ft\u0131rma ne zaman ve ka\u00e7 ki\u015fiyle yap\u0131ld\u0131?
\n“Bug\u00fcn se\u00e7im olsa ne olur?” diye hem 26-27 Aral\u0131k 2009’da hem de bu ay\u0131n ilk haftas\u0131nda ara\u015ft\u0131rma yapt\u0131k. Ocak ay\u0131nda 2412 ki\u015fiyle g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015ft\u00fck. Bu ara\u015f\u0131rman\u0131n sonucuna g\u00f6re AK Parti’nin oyu y\u00fczde 32-33 band\u0131na kadar indi. 2009 yerel se\u00e7imlerinde y\u00fczde 38.4 oy alan AK Parti o g\u00fcnk\u00fc oylar\u0131n d\u00f6rt be\u015f puan alt\u0131nda seyrediyor.
\nAK Parti’nin oylar\u0131 kime gidiyor?
\nBe\u015f ya\u0131l \u00f6nce AKP’den vazge\u00e7en birinin MHP7ye veya Saadet partisine gitmesini beklerdiniz mant\u0131k gere\u011fi. Halbuki \u015fimdi MHP CHP’den oy al\u0131yor. CHP de MHP’den.. Abd\u00fcllatif \u015eener ve Saadet’in yan\u0131 s\u0131ra Sar\u0131g\u00fcl de AK Parti’den oy al\u0131yor. Sar\u0131g\u00fcl’\u00fcn yan\u0131ndaki insanlar\u0131n Baykal muhalifi eski CHP’lilerden olu\u015fmas\u0131 nedeniyle kamuoyunda, ‘Sar\u0131g\u00fcl CHP’den oy alacak’ diye yanl\u0131\u015f bir alg\u0131 var. Sar\u0131g\u00fcl CHP’den daha \u00e7ok AK Parti se\u00e7meninden oy al\u0131yor. Biri d\u00fcn\u00fcn sol partisi, d\u00fcn\u00fcn merkezinde sa\u011f\u0131nda olan partisi.
\nBUG\u00dcN SE\u00c7\u0130M OLSA
\nAK Parti: Y\u00fczde 32
\nCHP: Y\u00fczde 21
\nMHP: Y\u00fczde 19
\nDTP: Y\u00fczde 7
\nTDH: Y\u00fczde 6
\nSaadet Partisi: Y\u00fczde 5
\nSar\u0131g\u00fcl neden CHP’den zor oy al\u0131r?
\n\u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc Mustafa Sar\u0131g\u00fcl Tayyip Erdo\u011fan tipinde bir siyaset\u00e7i. “Sar\u0131g\u00fcl’e oy verebilirim” diyen daha \u00e7ok varo\u015flarda ya\u015fayan d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck gelirli ve d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck e\u011fitimli insanlar Sar\u0131g\u00fcl partisinin vitrinine dindar, muhafazakar, milliyet\u00e7i isimler koydu\u011fu takdirde AK Parti’ye alternatif olur.
\nCHP ve MHP’nin durumu
\nOyu 3-4 puan artt\u0131 y\u00fczde 20’ye yakla\u015ft\u0131. CHP toplumun kendisinden bekledi\u011fi de\u011fi\u015fimi yapamazsa MHP de bu arada dindar ve muhafazakar se\u00e7menleri kazanacak politikalar uygularsa MHP CHP’yi ge\u00e7ebilir ve ikinci parti olabilir. CHP y\u00fckselirken MHP d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor, MHP y\u00fckselirken CHP d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor. CHP y\u00fczde 26-27’ye \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131nda MHP y\u00fczde 15 ve alt\u0131na inmi\u015fti. Bu partinin iktidar alternatifi olabilmesi i\u00e7in toplam oyun artamas\u0131 laz\u0131m. Asl\u0131nda \u015fu da var. CHP’nin problemi Deniz Baykal de\u011fil. Partinin problemi CHP’nin s\u00f6ylemi duru\u015fu ve y\u00f6netimi..<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 kamuoyu ara\u015ft\u0131rmalar\u0131yla se\u00e7imler \u00f6ncesinde en ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 anketlere imza atan Adil G\u00fcr’\u00fcn yeni \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 yine \u00e7ok ses getirecek.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":13806,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[6155,5005,6202,6805],"tags":[14459,14460,14462,3557,9476,6869,10829,14463,14461,5271],"class_list":["post-13805","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-gundem","category-manset","category-politika","category-turkiye","tag-adil-gur","tag-adil-gur-secim-anketi","tag-adil-gur-secim-anketleri","tag-ak-parti","tag-akp","tag-dtp","tag-mhp","tag-nese-duzel","tag-secim-anketleri","tag-taraf-gazetesi"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13805","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=13805"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13805\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/13806"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=13805"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=13805"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=13805"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}