{"id":201628,"date":"2014-12-08T17:29:36","date_gmt":"2014-12-08T15:29:36","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/?p=201628"},"modified":"2022-09-11T14:50:07","modified_gmt":"2022-09-11T11:50:07","slug":"abd-dolari-1-5-ayin-zirvesinde-201628","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/abd-dolari-1-5-ayin-zirvesinde-201628\/","title":{"rendered":"ABD Dolar\u0131 1.5 ay\u0131n zirvesinde"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"<\/p>\n

K\u00fcresel piyasalarda dolara olan talebin devam etmesiyle yurt i\u00e7inde dolar\/TL 2,2810’a \u00e7\u0131karak son bir bu\u00e7uk ay\u0131n en y\u00fcksek seviyesini g\u00f6rd\u00fc.<\/h1>\n

Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc beklentilerden \u00e7ok iyi gelen ABD verilerinin ard\u0131ndan 2,26’n\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kan dolar\/TL, bu haftan\u0131n ilk i\u015flem g\u00fcn\u00fcnde de y\u00fckseli\u015fini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. Bug\u00fcn bankalararas\u0131 piyasada g\u00fcne 2,26 seviyelerinden ba\u015flayan dolar\/TL, k\u00fcresel piyasalarda dolara olan talebin devam etmesiyle 2,2810’u g\u00f6rerek 16 Ekim’den beri en y\u00fcksek seviyesine ula\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n

Analistler, hafta boyunca yurt i\u00e7inde 3. \u00e7eyrek GSYH, ekim ay\u0131 cari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 verisi ile T\u00fcrkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (TCMB) 2015 y\u0131l\u0131 Para ve Kur Politikas\u0131 sunumunun a\u00e7\u0131klanaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirterek, beklentilerin olduk\u00e7a \u00fczerinde gelen ABD tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam verisinin ard\u0131ndan k\u00fcresel piyasalar\u0131n Fed’in 16-17 Aral\u0131k’taki toplant\u0131s\u0131na odakland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 kaydediyor.<\/p>\n

Teknik olarak dolar\/TL’de s\u0131ras\u0131yla 2,28 – 2,2860’\u0131n \u00f6nemli diren\u00e7 seviyeleri oldu\u011funa dikkati \u00e7eken analistler, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketlerde ise 2,2640’\u0131n destek konumunda oldu\u011funu bu seviyenin k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 durumunda iyimser bir havan\u0131n olu\u015fabilece\u011fini dile getiriyor.<\/p>\n

\u00d6te yandan T\u00fcrkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankas\u0131 (TCMB) son g\u00fcnlerde d\u00f6viz kurlar\u0131ndaki oynakl\u0131kta g\u00f6r\u00fclen art\u0131\u015f nedeniyle g\u00fcnl\u00fck d\u00f6viz sat\u0131m ihale tutar\u0131n\u0131n yar\u0131ndan itibaren “en az 20 milyon dolar”dan “en az 40 milyon dolar”a y\u00fckseltti\u011fini duyurdu. TCMB bug\u00fcnk\u00fc en az 20 milyon dolarl\u0131k d\u00f6viz sat\u0131m ihalesini de 40 milyon dolar olarak a\u00e7t\u0131. Dolar\/TL, TCMB’nin duyurusu ve 2,28’in \u00fczerinden gelen kar sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n etkisiyle \u015fu dakikalarda tekrar 2,27 seviyelerinde i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n

AA muhabirine konuya ili\u015fkin de\u011ferlendirmede bulunan Ziraat Yat\u0131r\u0131m Ekonomisti Bora Tamer Y\u0131lmaz, Japonya ve \u00c7in aras\u0131ndaki kur dinamikleri nedeniyle TL \u00fczerindeki belirleyici risk fakt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn Fed merkezinden uzakla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n

Her ne kadar cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc ABD’de tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam g\u00fc\u00e7 kazan\u0131p ABD faizlerini yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131sa da Japon Yeni’nin dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda psikolojik 120 seviyesini ge\u00e7mesinin TL ve di\u011fer kurlar \u00fczerinde ciddi etkilere sahip as\u0131l belirleyici rol\u00fc oynad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 kaydeden Y\u0131lmaz, gelecek hafta 17 Aral\u0131k Fed A\u00e7\u0131k Piyasa Komitesi (FOMC) toplant\u0131s\u0131na ili\u015fkin karar metninde tahminen “makul s\u00fcre” ifadesinin yer almayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 dile getirdi.<\/p>\n

Piyasada bu beklentinin \u015fu anda fiyatland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 vurgulayan Y\u0131lmaz, bu nedenle Asya-Pasifik’teki geli\u015fmeleri daha yak\u0131ndan takip ettiklerini kaydetti.<\/p>\n

Y\u0131lmaz, haftasonu Japonya’da ger\u00e7ekle\u015fecek genel se\u00e7imleri Ba\u015fbakan Shinzo Abe’nin yeter \u00e7o\u011funlukla kazanabilece\u011fini ve Japon Yeni’nin dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda 125 seviyesine hareketlenebilece\u011fini ve TL \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131n\u0131n artabilece\u011fine dikkati \u00e7ekerek, “Bu nedenle Pazar g\u00fcn\u00fc Japonya genel se\u00e7imlerinin kurlar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki \u00e7ar\u015famba FOMC toplant\u0131s\u0131ndan daha belirleyici olabilece\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcndeyiz. Avro B\u00f6lgesi i\u00e7in Fed benzeri parasal geni\u015fleme, \u00c7in i\u00e7in de faiz indirimi bekledi\u011fimiz konjonkt\u00fcrde TL’nin da de\u011fer kazanmas\u0131 zor g\u00f6z\u00fck\u00fcyor.”<\/p>\n

– “Bu ay TCMB’nin faiz koridorunda \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcl\u00fc bir ayarlama yapmas\u0131n\u0131 m\u00fcmk\u00fcn g\u00f6rmekteyiz”<\/p>\n

Y\u0131lmaz, 2008 y\u0131l\u0131 ba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana \u00c7in Renminbisi’nin T\u00fcrk liras\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda y\u00fczde 125 oran\u0131nda de\u011fer kazand\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve bu s\u00fcre\u00e7te \u00c7in’de i\u015f\u00e7ilik maliyetlerinin art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6stermesiyle T\u00fcrk ihracat\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131n uluslararas\u0131 pazarlarda rekabet g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fcn artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n

\u00d6zellikle tekstil sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn \u00c7in’deki kur geli\u015fmelerinden olumlu etkilendi\u011fini ve yeniden canland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ifade eden Y\u0131lmaz, “\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nemde e\u011fer \u00c7in Renminbisi bekledi\u011fimiz gibi de\u011fer kaybetme e\u011filimine girecekse T\u00fcrk ihracat\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131n rekabet \u015fanslar\u0131n\u0131 koruyabilmeleri i\u00e7in T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131’nda da k\u0131smi bir de\u011fer kayb\u0131 gerekebilir” dedi.<\/p>\n

Y\u0131lmaz, \u015funlar\u0131 kaydetti:<\/p>\n

“Kurun enflasyon \u00fczerindeki olumsuz etkisini g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne ald\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda Merkez Bankas\u0131’n\u0131n 2,50 \u2013 2,60 sepet kur (1 EUR + 1 USD ortalamas\u0131) band\u0131n\u0131 tercih edebilece\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcndeyiz. Zaten bug\u00fcn sepet kur baz\u0131nda TL’nin 2,53 seviyesine hareket etti\u011fini g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu ay Merkez Bankas\u0131’n\u0131n faiz koridorunda \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcl\u00fc bir ayarlama yapmas\u0131 ya da zorunlu kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131klarda d\u00fczenlemeye gitmesini m\u00fcmk\u00fcn g\u00f6rmekteyiz.<\/p>\n

Bu y\u00f6nde at\u0131lacak ad\u0131mlar Lira\u2019ya bir miktar de\u011fer kaybettirebilir. \u015eu anda piyasada bunun fiyatland\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcndeyiz. Sene sonunda sepet kur baz\u0131nda TL 2,55 de\u011ferinde olu\u015fabilir. Ayn\u0131 s\u00fcre\u00e7te avro\/dolar paritesi de 1,21 seviyesine do\u011fru \u00e7ekilirse TL’nin dolar ve avro kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki de\u011ferleri sene sonunda s\u0131rayla 2,30 ve 2,80 seviyelerinde olu\u015fabilir.”<\/p>\n

Japon Yeni’nin de\u011fer kazanmas\u0131 durumunda \u00c7in Renminbisi \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131 azalaca\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in TL’nin de 2,55 yerine 2,50 de\u011ferine do\u011fru g\u00fc\u00e7 kazanma \u015fans\u0131 bulaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6ren Y\u0131lmaz, benzer \u015fekilde avro’da da k\u0131smi bir toparlanma yapabilece\u011fini ve avro\/dolar paritesinin 1,25 seviyesine do\u011fru hareketlenebilece\u011fini ifade etti.<\/p>\n

Y\u0131lmaz, b\u00f6yle bir senaryoda ise T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131\u2019n\u0131n dolar ve avro kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda y\u0131l sonu de\u011ferinin s\u0131rayla 2,22 ve 2,78 olabilece\u011fini tahmin etti.<\/p>\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

K\u00fcresel piyasalarda dolara olan talebin devam etmesiyle yurt i\u00e7inde dolar\/TL 2,2810’a \u00e7\u0131karak son bir bu\u00e7uk ay\u0131n en y\u00fcksek seviyesini g\u00f6rd\u00fc.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":201630,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[6155,5005,349,6805,220816],"tags":[139565,8597,711,26054,66579,48625,8595,170478,170477,863,10463],"class_list":["post-201628","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-gundem","category-manset","category-son-dakika","category-turkiye","category-uzak-dogu","tag-abd-dolari-ne-kadar","tag-amerikan-dolari","tag-cin","tag-dolar","tag-dolar-kuru","tag-dolar-ne-kadar","tag-fed","tag-fed-dolar","tag-fed-tutanaklari","tag-japonya","tag-merkez-bankasi"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/201628","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=201628"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/201628\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/201630"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=201628"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=201628"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=201628"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}