{"id":208251,"date":"2015-03-19T11:47:44","date_gmt":"2015-03-19T09:47:44","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/?p=208251"},"modified":"2015-03-19T15:53:45","modified_gmt":"2015-03-19T13:53:45","slug":"iktidara-sok-akp-yuzde-40in-altinda-hdp-baraji-geciyor-yuzde-77-baskanlik-sistemine-karsi-208251","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/iktidara-sok-akp-yuzde-40in-altinda-hdp-baraji-geciyor-yuzde-77-baskanlik-sistemine-karsi-208251\/","title":{"rendered":"\u0130ktidara \u015fok! AKP y\u00fczde 40’\u0131n alt\u0131nda, HDP baraj\u0131 ge\u00e7iyor, y\u00fczde 77 ba\u015fkanl\u0131k sistemine kar\u015f\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"secim<\/p>\n

Gezici Ara\u015ft\u0131rma \u015eirketi\u2019nin mart ba\u015f\u0131nda yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 ankete g\u00f6re AKP’nin oy oran\u0131 y\u00fczde 39.3. Baraj\u0131 ge\u00e7en HDP\u2019ye gelen oylar\u0131n y\u00fczde 82-84\u2019\u00fcn\u00fc AKP se\u00e7meni olu\u015fturuyor. Ankete g\u00f6re halk\u0131n y\u00fczde 77.1\u2019i ba\u015fkanl\u0131k sistemine kar\u015f\u0131.<\/h1>\n

Gezici Ara\u015ft\u0131rma\u2019n\u0131n Mart 2015 anket sonu\u00e7lar\u0131na g\u00f6re, bug\u00fcn se\u00e7im yap\u0131lsa, AKP\u2019nin oy oran\u0131 y\u00fczde 39.3. CHP y\u00fczde 29.6, MHP y\u00fczde 17.7. HDP ise y\u00fczde 11.4 ile baraj\u0131 a\u015f\u0131yor. Karars\u0131z se\u00e7men, y\u00fczde 45-50 gibi bir oranla MHP\u2019ye oy verece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Halk\u0131n y\u00fczde 71.17i ba\u015fkanl\u0131k sistemini desteklemiyor. AKP\u2019ye oy verenlerin y\u00fczde 64\u2019\u00fc de ba\u015fkanl\u0131k sistemine kar\u015f\u0131. Gezici Ara\u015ft\u0131rma Genel M\u00fcd\u00fcr\u00fc Murat Gezici, \u201cMHP\u2019nin ula\u015fabilece\u011fi oy potansiyeli y\u00fczde 20 – 23 olabilir. AKP\u2019den kopan se\u00e7menin y\u00fczde 50-55\u2019i MHP\u2019ye oy verece\u011fini s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. MHP oy patlamas\u0131 ya\u015fayabilir\u201d dedi.<\/p>\n

AKP\u2019nin oylar\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc s\u00f6yleyince, \u015eubat ay\u0131nda Maliye operasyonu d\u00fczenlenen \u015firketin, bask\u0131ndan sonraki ilk anketi d\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131. 36 ilde, toplam 4.860 kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131yla g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fclerek haz\u0131rlanan ara\u015ft\u0131rmaya g\u00f6re, HDP\u2019ye gelen oylar\u0131n y\u00fczde 82 – 84\u2019\u00fcn\u00fc AKP se\u00e7meni olu\u015fturdu. K\u00fcrtlerin y\u00fczde 36\u2019s\u0131 AKP\u2019ye, y\u00fczde 50\u2019si HDP\u2019ye, y\u00fczde 14\u2019\u00fc ise di\u011fer partilere oy verece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. HDP\u2019nin oy oran\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015fta, Dengir Mir Mehmet F\u0131rat\u2019\u0131n etkisi saptand\u0131.<\/p>\n

\u201cAKP\u2019nin hata yap\u0131p yapmad\u0131\u011f\u0131\u201d y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki bir soruya, kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n y\u00fczde 71.8\u2019i, AKP\u2019lilerin de y\u00fczde 68.7\u2019si \u201cevet\u201d yan\u0131t\u0131n\u0131 verdi. AKP\u2019nin ge\u00e7im s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131s\u0131 yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnenlerin oran\u0131 y\u00fczde 59.3, i\u015fsizli\u011fi \u00e7\u00f6zemedi\u011fini s\u00f6yleyenlerin oran\u0131 y\u00fczde 48.6. Y\u00fczde 40.5\u2019lik bir oran \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm s\u00fcrecini y\u00f6netemedi\u011fini ifade ederken, y\u00fczde 34.4 ise Ak Saray\u2019\u0131 hata olarak g\u00f6rd\u00fc. AKP\u2019nin yolsuzluk yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yleyenler, y\u00fczde 28.7. AKP\u2019nin di\u011fer hatalar\u0131 \u015f\u00f6yle s\u0131raland\u0131: \u201cBa\u015fkanl\u0131k sistemi iste\u011fi, e\u011fitim sistemi, medyaya bask\u0131, yarg\u0131ya m\u00fcdahale, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019yi kutupla\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131 ve AB ili\u015fkileri.\u201d Halk\u0131n, y\u00fczde 71.8\u2019i, h\u00fck\u00fcmetin \u00fclkeyi y\u00f6netmekte ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z oldu\u011funu belirtti.<\/p>\n

Halk\u0131n y\u00fczde 66,8\u2019i ge\u00e7im s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131s\u0131 ya\u015farken, y\u00fczde 48.6\u2019s\u0131 ge\u00e7inemedi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. \u0130\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 ise y\u00fczde 21.2. Resmi rakamlar i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fczde 10\u2019un alt\u0131nda g\u00f6steriyor. \u00dclke gidi\u015fat\u0131n\u0131n yanl\u0131\u015f y\u00f6ne do\u011fru oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yleyenler ise y\u00fczde 67.1. PKK\u2019nin silah b\u0131rakaca\u011f\u0131na inanmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yleyenler y\u00fczde 85.4.<\/p>\n

Erdo\u011fan tarafl\u0131<\/p>\n

Kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n \u00e7o\u011fu yani y\u00fczde 65.8, Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Recep Tayyip Erdo\u011fan\u2019\u0131n g\u00f6rev s\u00fcresince tarafs\u0131z olamayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti. Son \u00fc\u00e7 ayda, AKP se\u00e7meni de y\u00fczde 38.7\u2019lik bir oranla, Erdo\u011fan\u2019\u0131n h\u00fck\u00fcmetin \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131na m\u00fcdahalesinden rahats\u0131z oldu\u011funu ifade etti. Halk\u0131n y\u00fczde 67.2\u2019si T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de h\u00fck\u00fcmet veya Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 taraf\u0131ndan medyaya planl\u0131 bir bask\u0131 uyguland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti.<\/p>\n

HDP\u2019ye \u00f6neri<\/p>\n

Murat Gezici, HDP\u2019nin baraj\u0131 ge\u00e7ip ge\u00e7meyece\u011finin kendi elinde oldu\u011funu ifade ederek, \u201cSe\u00e7mene ula\u015f\u0131rken kulland\u0131\u011f\u0131 kampanya, hikaye ve s\u00f6ylemler sol, marjinal ve entelekt\u00fce propaganda olmamal\u0131. Muhafazakar ve dindar oylar\u0131 ka\u00e7\u0131rabilir. Do\u011fru isimleri do\u011fru yerlerden aday g\u00f6stermeli. Dengir F\u0131rat \u0130stanbul\u2019dan aday olmal\u0131. Kervan\u0131 yolda d\u00fczmemeli\u201d dedi.<\/p>\n

Anket sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendiren Bah\u00e7e\u015fehir \u00dcniversitesi Ekonomik ve Toplumsal Ara\u015ft\u0131rmalar Merkezi (BETAM) Direkt\u00f6r\u00fc, Yazar Prof. Dr. Seyfettin G\u00fcrsel \u201cE\u011fer bu tahmin do\u011frulan\u0131rsa, AKP\u2019nin oyu y\u00fczde 40 olursa da do\u011frulanm\u0131\u015f olur. B\u00fcy\u00fck s\u00fcpriz demektir bu. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de siyaset taban\u0131n\u0131 de\u011fi\u015ftirir. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc HDP\u2019nin de baraj\u0131 ge\u00e7ti\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. HDP baraj\u0131 ge\u00e7ecek hem de AKP y\u00fczde 39-40 olacak. Bu AKP\u2019nin Meclis\u2019teki \u00e7o\u011funlu\u011fu kaybetmesi demek. Mecburen bir koalisyon yapacak, yapamazsa da mecburen ba\u015fka bir koalisyon olacak. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla \u00e7ok b\u00fcy\u00fck bir iddia bu. Ben \u015fahsen bu kadar AKP\u2019nin oy oran\u0131 d\u00fc\u015fer mi emin de\u011filim. Benim \u015fahsi beklentim y\u00fczde 42, 43. Anket yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131m i\u00e7in de\u011fil, ba\u015fka analizlerle vard\u0131\u011f\u0131m sonu\u00e7 bu\u201d dedi. AKP\u2019nin oyunun y\u00fczde 50 g\u00f6sterildi\u011fi anketlerin de oldu\u011funu belirten G\u00fcrsel, \u201cKim hakl\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kacak bilmiyorum. Bu \u00e7ok \u00f6nemli, b\u00fct\u00fcn T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin siyaseti de\u011fi\u015fir\u201d ifadesini kulland\u0131. Ankette yer alan oy ge\u00e7i\u015fini de de\u011ferlendiren G\u00fcrsel \u201cAKP\u2019nin oylar\u0131 e\u011fer ger\u00e7ekten d\u00fc\u015fm\u00fc\u015fse ankette oylar\u0131n bir k\u0131sm\u0131 HDP\u2019ye gidiyor ama \u00e7o\u011fu MHP\u2019ye gidiyor. MHP\u2019ye gitme meselesi do\u011fru \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc AKP\u2019nin oyu d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fc zaman \u00e7ok b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde MHP\u2019ye kay\u0131yor. 2009 yerel se\u00e7imlerinde de net b\u00f6yleydi. Ona kat\u0131l\u0131yorum. HDP\u2019ye gitmesi de bana mant\u0131kl\u0131 geliyor. AKP\u2019nin K\u00fcrt se\u00e7meni son geli\u015fmelerle HDP\u2019ye y\u00f6nelebilir. HDP\u2019nin baraj\u0131 ge\u00e7mesi ve Meclis\u2019te temsil edilmesi \u00e7ok \u00f6nemli. Hatta CHP taban\u0131ndan bile \u2018baraj\u0131 ge\u00e7sin diye oy verece\u011fim\u2019 diyen var\u201d diye konu\u015ftu.<\/p>\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Gezici Ara\u015ft\u0131rma \u015eirketi\u2019nin mart ba\u015f\u0131nda yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 ankete g\u00f6re AKP’nin oy oran\u0131 y\u00fczde 39.3. Baraj\u0131 ge\u00e7en HDP\u2019ye gelen oylar\u0131n y\u00fczde 82-84\u2019\u00fcn\u00fc AKP se\u00e7meni olu\u015fturuyor. Ankete g\u00f6re halk\u0131n y\u00fczde 77.1\u2019i ba\u015fkanl\u0131k sistemine kar\u015f\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":208264,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[6155,5005,6202,349,6805],"tags":[9476,60425,36910,8723,67358,186792,126747,183494,10829,73893,13867,63898],"class_list":["post-208251","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-gundem","category-manset","category-politika","category-son-dakika","category-turkiye","tag-akp","tag-akp-oy-orani","tag-akp-secim-anketi","tag-chp","tag-chp-secim-anketi","tag-gezici","tag-gezici-arastirma-sirketi","tag-hdp-baraj","tag-mhp","tag-mhp-oylari","tag-secim-anketi","tag-son-secim-anketi"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/208251","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=208251"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/208251\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/208264"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=208251"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=208251"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=208251"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}