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ANDY-AR Ara\u015ft\u0131rma \u015eirketi’nin anketine g\u00f6re, \u201cBug\u00fcn se\u00e7im olsa hangi partiye oy verirsiniz?\u201d sorusuna se\u00e7menin y\u00fczde 42.8\u2019i AKP, y\u00fczde 27\u2019si CHP, y\u00fczde 15.9\u2019u MHP ve y\u00fczde 12.8\u2019i HDP yan\u0131t\u0131n\u0131 verdi.<\/p>\n
7 Haziran Genel Se\u00e7imi\u2019nde \u201cDi\u011fer partiye oy verdim\u201d diyenlerin y\u00fczdelik dilimiyse 4.7\u2019den, 1.5\u2019e indi. Ankete g\u00f6re son iki ayda AKP ve CHP\u2019nin oy oran\u0131 y\u00fczde 2 y\u00fckseldi.<\/p>\n
Habert\u00fcrk’ten Alper Uru\u015f ve Arif Balkan’\u0131n haberine g\u00f6re, ara\u015ft\u0131rma \u015firketi, koalisyon ve erken se\u00e7ime ili\u015fkin sorular\u0131n\u0131 d\u00f6rt partinin se\u00e7meninin tercihine g\u00f6re de detayland\u0131rd\u0131. Partilere g\u00f6re se\u00e7menin \u201cErken se\u00e7im mi, koalisyon mu olmal\u0131?\u201d sorusuna yan\u0131tlar\u0131 \u015f\u00f6yle oldu.<\/p>\n
AKP’li se\u00e7menin y\u00fczde 78.3\u2019\u00fc, \u201cErken se\u00e7im\u201d dedi. Bu en y\u00fcksek oran\u0131 MHP\u2019li se\u00e7men y\u00fczde 45.4 ile izledi. \u201cErken se\u00e7im\u201d diyen en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oran y\u00fczde 20.1 ile CHP\u2019li se\u00e7men olurken, HDP\u2019lilerin y\u00fczde 24\u2019\u00fc de \u2018Erken se\u00e7im\u2019 cevab\u0131n\u0131 verdi.<\/p>\n\n
\u201cKoalisyon kurulsun\u201d diyen CHP\u2019li se\u00e7menin tercihiyse y\u00fczde 75.2\u2019yi buldu. Koalisyonu destekleyen ikinci se\u00e7mense y\u00fczde 74.7 ile HDP\u2019ye oy verenler oldu. MHP\u2019li se\u00e7menin yar\u0131dan az\u0131, y\u00fczde 42.1\u2019i \u201cKoalisyon\u201d cevab\u0131n\u0131 verirken AKP’li se\u00e7menin y\u00fczde 17\u2019si \u201cKoalisyon olmal\u0131\u201d dedi.<\/p>\n
Erken se\u00e7im ve koalisyon tercihinin cinsiyete g\u00f6re da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131ndaysa kad\u0131nlarda da erkeklerde de \u201cErken se\u00e7im\u201d diyenlerin oran\u0131 \u201cKoalisyon\u201d diyenleri geride b\u0131rak\u0131yor. Bununla birlikte her iki tercih de y\u00fczde 40 pastas\u0131 i\u00e7erisinde yan\u0131t buluyor. Erkeklerin y\u00fczde 49.9\u2019u \u201cErken se\u00e7im\u201d, y\u00fczde 43.8\u2019i \u201cKoalisyon\u201d yan\u0131t\u0131n\u0131 veriyor. Kad\u0131nlar\u0131nsa y\u00fczde 47.4\u2019\u00fc \u201cErken se\u00e7im olsun\u201d cevab\u0131n\u0131 verirken, y\u00fczde 40\u2019\u0131 \u201cKoalisyon kurulmal\u0131\u201d g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc belirtiyor.<\/p>\n
Ara\u015ft\u0131rma \u015firketi ANDY-AR\u2019\u0131n se\u00e7mene ilk sorusu, \u201cBu pazar milletvekili genel se\u00e7imi olmas\u0131 durumunda hangi partiye oy verirsiniz?\u201d oldu. Karars\u0131z se\u00e7menlerin da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131ndan \u00f6nce partilerin ham oy oranlar\u0131 AKP y\u00fczde 35.1, CHP y\u00fczde 22.1, MHP y\u00fczde 13, HDP y\u00fczde 10.5 ve di\u011fer partilere oy verece\u011fini belirten y\u00fczde 1.2 diye s\u0131raland\u0131. Bu sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda ilgin\u00e7 bir veri de ortaya \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Olas\u0131 bir se\u00e7imde \u2018karars\u0131z\u2019 oldu\u011funu belirten, \u2018bo\u015f oy\u2019 ya da \u2018protesto oy\u2019 ataca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yleyen, \u2018sand\u0131\u011fa gitmeyece\u011fini\u2019 ifade eden ve \u201cCevap yok\u201d yan\u0131t\u0131 veren, yani \u201cBelirsiz oy\u201d olarak adland\u0131r\u0131lan se\u00e7menin oran\u0131 y\u00fczde 18.1\u2019i buldu. Ba\u015fka bir ifadeyle \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc parti oldu.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin cevap arad\u0131\u011f\u0131 en can al\u0131c\u0131 soru \u201cerken se\u00e7im\u201d ve \u201ckoalisyon\u201d la ilgili sorular oldu. ANDY-AR, \u201cH\u00fck\u00fcmet kurma \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131 sonucunda koalisyon mu, erken se\u00e7im mi olur?\u201d diye sordu. Bu soruya \u201cErken se\u00e7im\u201d yan\u0131t\u0131n\u0131 verenlerin oran\u0131 y\u00fczde 69.1 \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. \u201cKoalisyon\u201d kurulaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnenlerse y\u00fczde 14.7\u2019de kald\u0131. \u201cFikrim yok, bilmiyorum\u201d cevab\u0131ysa y\u00fczde 16.2 oran\u0131nda oldu. Ancak, ayn\u0131 se\u00e7mene ara\u015ft\u0131rma \u015firketi, \u201cSizce koalisyon mu, erken se\u00e7im mi olmal\u0131?\u201d sorusunu y\u00f6neltti. \u201cErken se\u00e7im olmal\u0131\u201d cevab\u0131n\u0131 verenler y\u00fczde 48.8 \u00e7\u0131karken, \u201cKoalisyon kurulmal\u0131\u201d diyenlerin oran\u0131 y\u00fczde 42.1\u2019i buldu. Bu oran, ANDY-AR taraf\u0131ndan yine HABERT\u00dcRK i\u00e7in yap\u0131lan ve 30 Haziran\u2019da yay\u0131nlanan \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmada y\u00fczde 36.4 \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Yani son 42 g\u00fcnde t\u00fcm se\u00e7men \u00fczerinden \u2018koalisyon kurulmal\u0131\u2019 diyenlerin oran\u0131 y\u00fczde 6 artt\u0131.<\/p>\n
Se\u00e7menin \u201cErken se\u00e7im mi olsun\u201d, \u201cKoalisyon mu kurulsun\u201d cevab\u0131 da ya\u015fa g\u00f6re da\u011f\u0131l\u0131mda de\u011fi\u015fkenlik g\u00f6sterdi. Gen\u00e7 n\u00fcfusun e\u011filimi erken se\u00e7imin olmas\u0131, ya\u015fl\u0131 n\u00fcfusun tercihiyse koalisyon y\u00f6n\u00fcndeydi. 18-24 ya\u015f aras\u0131 se\u00e7menin y\u00fczde 61.2\u2019si, 25-34 ya\u015f aras\u0131 se\u00e7menin y\u00fczde 52.5\u2019i, 35-44 ya\u015f aras\u0131 se\u00e7meninse y\u00fczde 52.1\u2019i \u201cErken se\u00e7im olsun\u201d cevab\u0131n\u0131 verdi.<\/p>\n
\u201cKoalisyon kurulsun\u201d yan\u0131t\u0131n\u0131 veren se\u00e7mense, en y\u00fcksek y\u00fczdelik oran\u0131 olan y\u00fczde 53.9\u2019a, 55 ya\u015f ve \u00fcst\u00fc skalada \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. 45-54 ya\u015f aras\u0131 se\u00e7menin de y\u00fczde 42.5\u2019i \u201cKoalisyon kurulsun\u201d dedi. \u201cKoalisyon kurulsun\u201d diyen en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oransa y\u00fczde 29.1 ile 18-24 ya\u015f aras\u0131 se\u00e7men oldu.<\/p>\n
\u201cErken se\u00e7im\u201d ve \u201ckoalisyon\u201d iste\u011fini ara\u015ft\u0131rma \u015firketi \u201ce\u011fitim durumuna g\u00f6re\u201d de irdeledi. E\u011fitim durumuna g\u00f6re \u201cErken se\u00e7im olmal\u0131\u201d diyenlerin oran\u0131 lise mezunlar\u0131nda y\u00fczde 51.7, ortaokul mezunlar\u0131nda y\u00fczde 51.1 ve ilkokul mezunlar\u0131nda y\u00fczde 50.9 \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<\/p>\n
E\u011fitimine g\u00f6re \u201cKoalisyon kurulmal\u0131\u201d diyenlerin ula\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 en y\u00fcksek oy oran\u0131ysa y\u00fczde 52.9 ile \u00fcniversite mezunu se\u00e7men oldu. Bu sonucu y\u00fczde 42.9 ile ortaokul mezunlar\u0131, y\u00fczde 40\u2019la lise mezunlar\u0131 izledi.<\/p>\n
ANDY-AR, koalisyon g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerinin s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc \u015fu g\u00fcnlerde se\u00e7menlere, \u201cSizce koalisyon i\u00e7in AKP mi, CHP mi daha istekli?\u201d sorusunu y\u00f6neltti. Bu soruya \u2018CHP daha istekli\u2019 diyenlerin oran\u0131 y\u00fczde 39 oldu. \u2018AKP daha istekli\u2019 yan\u0131t\u0131n\u0131 verenlerin oran\u0131ysa y\u00fczde 37.7 oldu. Her iki partiyi de istekli bulmayanlar y\u00fczde 9.9 olarak belirlendi. Fikrim yok\/Bilmiyorum diyenlerse y\u00fczde 13.4 oran\u0131ndayd\u0131.<\/p>\n
ANDY-AR Y\u00f6netim Kurulu Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Faruk Acar, 7 Haziran se\u00e7imlerinin ard\u0131ndan yapt\u0131klar\u0131 \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmada se\u00e7im sonu\u00e7lar\u0131ndan duyulan memnuniyeti sorgulad\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 belirterek \u015fu de\u011ferlendirmeyi yapt\u0131: \u201cHDP se\u00e7meni d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda di\u011fer parti se\u00e7menlerinde mutsuzluk saptam\u0131\u015ft\u0131k. Ancak se\u00e7menlerin y\u00fczde 92\u2019si bir se\u00e7im olsa yine 7 Haziran\u2019da se\u00e7tikleri partiye oy vereceklerini s\u00f6ylemi\u015fti. 1 ayda tablo \u00e7ok de\u011fi\u015fti. MHP\u2019nin uzla\u015fmaz tavr\u0131, Meclis Ba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 se\u00e7imleri, Suru\u00e7 patlamas\u0131, I\u015e\u0130D sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 ve PKK eylemlerinin yan\u0131 s\u0131ra koalisyon kurulamamas\u0131 nedeniyle, se\u00e7mende ciddi bir k\u0131r\u0131lma ya\u015fand\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6zlemliyoruz\u201d dedi.<\/p>\n
\u201cKarars\u0131zlar, kendini gizleyenler ve protesto edenlerin oran\u0131 y\u00fczde 18 dolaylar\u0131nda\u201d diyen Acar, \u201c7 Haziran\u2019dan 3 ay \u00f6nce de b\u00f6yle bir durum vard\u0131. Se\u00e7mende k\u0131zg\u0131nl\u0131k h\u00e2kim; y\u00fczde 18\u2019lik pusuya yatan se\u00e7men kitlesinin 2.5 ay gibi k\u0131sa bir s\u00fcre sonra kar\u015f\u0131m\u0131za \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 \u015fa\u015f\u0131rt\u0131c\u0131. Bu kitle partilerin politikalar\u0131n\u0131n nas\u0131l de\u011fi\u015fece\u011fini, se\u00e7im ortam\u0131n\u0131n nas\u0131l olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131, koalisyon aray\u0131\u015flar\u0131nda sadece bir prosed\u00fcr\u00fcn m\u00fc ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirildi\u011fini yak\u0131ndan izliyor\u201d de\u011ferlendirmesinde bulundu.<\/p>\n
Acar, se\u00e7mende koalisyon e\u011filiminin de artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirterek \u015f\u00f6yle konu\u015ftu: \u201c\u2018Belirsizlik iktidara yarar\u2019 sav\u0131na g\u00fcvenmemek gerekti\u011fini g\u00f6steren bir oran h\u00e2kim. Se\u00e7men, erken se\u00e7im olaca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fcnde bulunuyor. Ancak \u2018Koalisyon mu, erken se\u00e7im mi\u2019 sorusuna koalisyon diyenler y\u00fczde 42, erken se\u00e7im diyenlerse y\u00fczde 48 dolay\u0131nda. Yani se\u00e7menin ikiye b\u00f6l\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc bir tablo var. Koalisyon beklentisi art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6stermi\u015f durumda. Toplumda kanaat \u00f6nderlerinin koalisyon gereklili\u011fi vurgusu se\u00e7mende bu alg\u0131y\u0131 olu\u015fturuyor. Se\u00e7ime gidilirse daha fazla gerilim olur alg\u0131s\u0131 h\u00e2kim.\u201d<\/p>\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
ANDY-AR Ara\u015ft\u0131rma \u015eirketi olas\u0131 bir erken se\u00e7imde partilerin oy oran\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Ankete g\u00f6re erken se\u00e7im olursa partilerin oy oranlar\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fck bir de\u011fi\u015fiklik olmayacak. AKP ve CHP’de k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck art\u0131\u015f, HDP ve MHP’de ise d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f var.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":216945,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[6155,5005,6202,349,6805],"tags":[65140,65141,98092,13867],"class_list":["post-216943","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-gundem","category-manset","category-politika","category-son-dakika","category-turkiye","tag-andy-ar","tag-andy-ar-secim-anketi","tag-faruk-acar","tag-secim-anketi"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/216943","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=216943"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/216943\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/216945"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=216943"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=216943"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=216943"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}