{"id":24101,"date":"2010-05-20T09:33:54","date_gmt":"2010-05-20T06:33:54","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/?p=24101"},"modified":"2019-03-28T11:24:05","modified_gmt":"2019-03-28T08:24:05","slug":"1-euro-1-dolar-olur-mu-9827491","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/1-euro-1-dolar-olur-mu-9827491\/","title":{"rendered":"1 Euro = 1 Dolar olur mu ?"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"Art\u0131k ortada bir ger\u00e7ek var o da Yunanistan krizinin Yunanistan’la s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalmayaca\u011f\u0131 ger\u00e7e\u011fi.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Di\u011fer Avrupa ekonomilerine de bula\u015f\u0131r m\u0131” diye sorman\u0131n gere\u011fi de yok, \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc halihaz\u0131rda bula\u015fmaya ba\u015flad\u0131 bile.Ge\u00e7en yaz\u0131lar\u0131m\u0131n birinde de\u011findi\u011fim CDS (Credit Default Swap – Kredi iflas takas\u0131 sigorta primleri) piyasas\u0131nda Yunanistan, Portekiz, \u0130spanya, \u0130rlanda ve \u0130talya’n\u0131n risk primleri hala T\u00fcrkiye’nin \u00e7ok \u00fczerinde seyrediyor.Tam global ekonomik toparlanma ray\u0131na oturdu ve yava\u015f da olsa kriz \u00f6ncesi \u00fcretim seviyelerine ula\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik bir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm ortaya \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 derken, bir anda d\u00fcnyay\u0131 saran yeni kriz dalgas\u0131 Avrupa ekonomilerindeki sorunlar\u0131n \u00f6n plana \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 ile ekonomik riskler bir kez daha a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nde olu\u015fmaya ba\u015flad\u0131.<\/p>\n

Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Trichet’nin krizi yat\u0131\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131 bekleniyordu ama o da tabir yerinde ise yang\u0131na k\u00f6r\u00fckle gitti ve Yunan tahvillerini almak gibi planlar\u0131 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6ylemesi ve Avrupa bankalar\u0131n\u0131n kasalar\u0131nda Yunan ve Portekiz tahvilleri gibi \u015fu anda \u00e7ok muteber olmayan k\u00e2\u011f\u0131tlarla dolu oldu\u011fu tezat\u0131 piyasalar\u0131n nabz\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fckletti. Bir umut Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 bu k\u00e2\u011f\u0131tlar\u0131 al\u0131p, destekleyecek ve b\u00f6ylece bankalar\u0131n bilan\u00e7olar\u0131 d\u00fczelecekti. Ama Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Trichet banka y\u00f6netim kurulu \u00fcyelerinin b\u00f6yle bir \u015feyi aralar\u0131nda tart\u0131\u015fmad\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 bile s\u00f6ylemesi piyasalarca AB ‘ye olan g\u00fcveni azallt\u0131.Bu ne kadar s\u00fcre devam eder bilinmez ama \u015fu ana kadar Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 birg\u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fc vermedi diyebiliriz .Nihayi karar\u0131 vermek i\u00e7in hik\u00e2yenin sonunu g\u00f6rmeliyiz.<\/p>\n

AB’ye al\u0131nmayan T\u00fcrkiye euroya bak\u0131p k\u0131s k\u0131s g\u00fcl\u00fcyor…<\/strong><\/p>\n

Bu s\u00f6zler Alman Die Welt gazetesine ait…. Die Welt yaz\u0131da ,Avrupa Birli\u011fi (AB) \u00fcyesi \u00fclkeler ekonomik krizlerle bo\u011fu\u015furken, y\u0131llarca k\u00fclt\u00fcrel ve ekonomik a\u00e7\u0131dan birli\u011fe kat\u0131lmaya haz\u0131r olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u015feklinde ele\u015ftirilere maruz kalan T\u00fcrkiye’nin, bug\u00fcn AB’den \u00e7ok daha fazla bir ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131na sahip oldu\u011funu yazd\u0131.”Sevilmeyen kom\u015fudan \u00f6\u011frenmek” ba\u015fl\u0131\u011f\u0131yla yay\u0131mlanan yaz\u0131da, “T\u00fcrkler ,Yunanistan, Portekiz, \u0130spanya ve de\u011fer kaybeden euroya bak\u0131yor ve g\u00fcl\u00fcmsemeden ge\u00e7emiyor denildi .Yaz\u0131n\u0131n devam\u0131nda T\u00fcrkiye’nin eksikleri olabilir ama kesinlikle AB \u00fcyesi olan Yunanistan kadar de\u011fil denildi ve T\u00fcrkiye’nin AB’den \u00f6\u011frenmesi yerine tersi daha iyi olmaz m\u0131?ifadesi kullan\u0131ld\u0131.Yaz\u0131n\u0131n devam\u0131nda Yunanistan’da ya\u015fanan kriz sonras\u0131 T\u00fcrkiye’nin AB \u00fcyesi olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131na sevindi\u011fi yorumu yap\u0131ld\u0131 ve Ankara’n\u0131n IMF’den destek almad\u0131\u011f\u0131 hat\u0131rlat\u0131ld\u0131.Bu haber i\u00e7 piyasalarda ise y\u0131llard\u0131r krizlerle bo\u011fu\u015fan T\u00fcrkiye’nin art\u0131k krizlere kar\u015f\u0131 ba\u011f\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131k kazand\u0131\u011f\u0131 yorumlar\u0131na sebep oldu.<\/p>\n

Bundan sonra ne olur?<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u015eu anda tek kesin olan \u015fey Euro’nun k\u0131sa vadede g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda oldu\u011fudur.Ge\u00e7en hafta g\u00f6r\u00fclen euro\/dolar paritesinin 1.22 ler seviyesi son 2 y\u0131l\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesiydi.\u00d6zellikle y\u0131l sonuna do\u011fru ABD faizleri artmaya ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131nda dolar\u0131n euro kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki y\u00fckseli\u015fi h\u0131zlanabilir ve 1 euro = 1 dolar noktas\u0131na yakla\u015fabilir. Ama “Bu i\u015fin sonunda euro \u00e7\u00f6ker mi” sorusunun cevab\u0131 , bana \u015fimdilik \u00e7ok inand\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 gelmiyor.\u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc Euronun de\u011fer kayb\u0131 Avrupa ekonomilerinin rekabet\u00e7i g\u00fcc\u00fcne katk\u0131da bulunacak ve 2011 sonlar\u0131 ve 2012 ba\u015flar\u0131ndaki toparlanmas\u0131na yard\u0131mc\u0131 olacakt\u0131r.Alman \u0130hracat\u00e7\u0131lar Birli\u011fi’ne g\u00f6re euro y\u0131l sonunda 1 dolar seviyesine kadar inebilece\u011fi haberi ve Jim Rogers’in uzun vadede AB nin da\u011f\u0131labilece\u011fi haberi ise piyasalarca hafta i\u00e7i \u00e7ok konu\u015fuldu.<\/p>\n

Ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i fiyatlama d\u00f6nemine haz\u0131rlanal\u0131m <\/strong><\/p>\n

Bu arada Yunanistan gibi ekonomilerin hem piyasalar hem de rating firmalar\u0131 taraf\u0131ndan abart\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 anla\u015f\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in daha do\u011fru ve
\nger\u00e7ek\u00e7i bir fiyatlama d\u00f6nemine de giriyor olabiliriz.Yani d\u00fczeltme oluyor.Olmaya da devam edecek.\u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc Sadece Portekiz, \u0130spanya, \u0130talya,\u0130rlanda de\u011fil, \u015fu anda k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in hi\u00e7 konu\u015fulmayan euro b\u00f6lgesi \u00fcyelerinden G\u00fcney K\u0131br\u0131s da konu\u015fulacak ve yeniden de\u011ferlemeye tabi tutulacakt\u0131r.A notuna sahip bir ekonomi G\u00fcney K\u0131br\u0131s.Burada duygusal milliyet\u00e7ilikten dolay\u0131 G\u00fcney K\u0131br\u0131s’\u0131 ele\u015ftiriyorum denmesin \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc G\u00fcney K\u0131br\u0131s \u015fu anda ciddi bir resesyonda. B\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 milli gelirinin y\u00fczde 7’sine ula\u015f\u0131yor. Kamuborcu ise gayri safi yurti\u00e7i has\u0131las\u0131 kadar.Yetmezmi\u015f gibi bir milligelirin y\u00fczde 8.5’i dolay\u0131nda cari a\u00e7\u0131k veriyor. \u0130lave olarak K\u0131br\u0131s bankalar\u0131 a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 Yunan entegrasyonundan dolay\u0131 ciddi derecede Yunanistan riski ta\u015f\u0131yor. Ve bu ekonomi A notuna sahip. Yani ekonomik durumu T\u00fcrkiye’den \u00e7ok daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen AB \u00fcyesi ve A notuna sahip…<\/p>\n

Sonu\u00e7 olarak;<\/strong><\/p>\n

T\u00fcrkiye’nin D\u00fcnya ile entegrasyonunun bu kadar i\u00e7i\u00e7e olmas\u0131, D\u00fcnyada neler olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131n bizim a\u00e7\u0131m\u0131zdan \u00e7ok b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6nem ta\u015f\u0131mas\u0131n\u0131n kan\u0131t\u0131.Bundan sonra ne olur sorusunun yan\u0131t\u0131 ise bi hayli kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k.Bu konuda bir\u00e7ok iddia var. Bunlar\u0131n bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc d\u00fcnyada yeni bir \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015f ya\u015fanaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131, bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc ufak tefek dalgalanmalar olsa da bir \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015f daha ya\u015fanmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131, bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc de art\u0131k toparlanman\u0131n ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde.Ben bunlar\u0131n \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnede kat\u0131l\u0131yorum.\u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc baz\u0131 ekonomiler \u00f6nce, baz\u0131 ekonomiler sonra ,k\u0131s\u0131m k\u0131s\u0131m krize girdi. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k krizden \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f hep birlikte olmayacak. Baz\u0131 ekonomiler krizden h\u0131zl\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kacaklar, baz\u0131lar\u0131 ikinci kez dip yapacaklar baz\u0131lar\u0131 daha yava\u015f \u00e7\u0131kacaklar.\u0130\u015fte bu nedenden dolay\u0131 her ekonomi krizden \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015fta farkl\u0131 bir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm i\u00e7inde olacak V veya W \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f ayr\u0131m\u0131 burada” yani kime g\u00f6re neye g\u00f6re’.’ Ben ABD ve T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin krizden en h\u0131zl\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kan ekonomiler olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum. Avrupa da ise durum kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k, \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc Almanya, Fransa gibi ekonomiler \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015fa ge\u00e7erken buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k \u0130talya ve \u0130spanya daha bir s\u00fcre s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131 \u00e7ekecek gibi. ilave olarak Yunanistan\u2019\u0131n bu krizden uzun y\u0131llar \u00e7\u0131kabilece\u011fini sanm\u0131yorum. Uzakdo\u011fu ise krize zaten pek girmemi\u015fti o y\u00fczden uzakdo\u011fu en h\u0131zl\u0131 krizden \u00e7\u0131kan b\u00f6lge say\u0131l\u0131yor.T\u00fcrkiye ise , ekonomisini \u00f6nceden toparlam\u0131\u015f olarak bu krize girdi\u011fi i\u00e7in uzak do\u011fu \u00fclkeleri d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda krizden en az etkilenen ve dolay\u0131s\u0131yla da en \u00e7abuk \u00e7\u0131kacak ekonomi olacak.Bu, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin rakiplerini ge\u00e7mesi i\u00e7in b\u00fcy\u00fck bir f\u0131rsat. Bu f\u0131rsat\u0131 siyasal gerginliklerle harcamamak gerek diye d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum .<\/p>\n

\u00d6mer Demir<\/strong><\/p>\n

Yazar\u0131n t\u00fcm yaz\u0131lar\u0131na g\u00f6zat \u00bb<\/a><\/p>\nError, group does not exist! Check your syntax! (ID: 59)<\/span>\nError, group does not exist! Check your syntax! (ID: 89)<\/span>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Art\u0131k ortada bir ger\u00e7ek var o da Yunanistan krizinin Yunanistan’la s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalmayaca\u011f\u0131 ger\u00e7e\u011fi.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":9192212,"featured_media":24102,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[6199],"tags":[26052,1887,14813,8430,26054,26048,26049,12916,26053,26047,5011,15,26051,195988,5848,26050,12917,1202,22715],"class_list":["post-24101","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ekonomi","tag-a-cds","tag-abd","tag-abd-ekonomisi","tag-die-welt","tag-dolar","tag-dolar-euro","tag-dolar-euro-parite","tag-ekonomi-yazilari","tag-euro","tag-euro-dolar","tag-irlanda","tag-ispanya","tag-italy","tag-omer-demir","tag-portekiz","tag-trichet","tag-turkiye-ekonomisi","tag-yunanistan","tag-yunanistan-krizi"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24101","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/9192212"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=24101"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24101\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/24102"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=24101"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=24101"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=24101"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}