\u0130\u015fte se\u00e7im \u00f6ncesi ABD’de yap\u0131lan son 14 anketin sonucu:<\/p>\n
ABC\/Washington Post: Clinton 47, Trump 43<\/p>\n
NBC\/Wall St. Journal: Clinton 44, Trump 40<\/p>\n
Morning Consult: Clinton 45, Trump 42<\/p>\n
FiveThirtyEight: Clinton 48, Trump 46<\/p>\n
Fox News: Clinton 45, Trump 43<\/p>\n
USA Today: Clinton 45, Trump 43<\/p>\n
Rasmussen: Clinton 44, Trump 44<\/p>\n
McClatchy\/Marist: Clinton 46, Trump 44<\/p>\n
Ipsos\/Reuters: Clinton 44, Trump 40<\/p>\n
Lucid\/The Times-Picayune: Clinton 44, Trump 39<\/p>\n
YouGov\/Economist: Clinton 46, Trump 43<\/p>\n
New York Times\/CBS News: Clinton 47, Trump 44<\/p>\n
Pew: Clinton 46, Trump 40<\/p>\n
CNN: Clinton 49, Trump 44<\/p>\n\n
\u00d6te yandan 1984’ten beri ba\u015fkanl\u0131k se\u00e7imlerinde hangi aday\u0131n kazanaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 do\u011fru tahmin eden siyasi tarih\u00e7i Allan Lichtman ise bir kez daha do\u011fru tahminde bulundu.<\/p>\n
69 ya\u015f\u0131ndaki Lichtman bu se\u00e7imlerdeki favorisinin Trump oldu\u011funu s\u00f6ylemi\u015fti.<\/p>\n
Lichtman, tahminleri i\u00e7in kamuoyu yoklamalar\u0131ndan ya da kendi siyasi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcncelerinden yararlanm\u0131yor. 1860\u2019tan 1980’e kadarki t\u00fcm ba\u015fkanl\u0131k se\u00e7imlerini inceleyen deneyimli akademisyenin belirledi\u011fi 13 kriter var. Lichtman, bu kriterler temelinde 1984’ten beri yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 sekiz tahminde de hakl\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<\/p>\n
Washington Post’a konu\u015fan Lichtman, “Beyaz Saray’\u0131n Anahtarlar\u0131 ad\u0131n\u0131 verdi\u011fim sistem, tarih temelli bir tahmin sistemi. Anahtarlar, 13 do\u011fru\/yanl\u0131\u015f sorusundan olu\u015fuyor. Hali haz\u0131rda ba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 elinde bulunduran parti, bu 13 kriterden alt\u0131 ya da yedi tanesine uymuyorsa, ba\u015fkanl\u0131k di\u011fer partiye gidiyor. Be\u015f ya da daha az\u0131na uymuyorsa, d\u00f6rt y\u0131l daha iktidarda kal\u0131yor. Demokrat Parti \u015fu an bu kriterlerden be\u015f tanesine kesin olarak uymuyor” demi\u015fti.<\/p>\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
ABD’de se\u00e7im \u00f6ncesi yap\u0131lan anketler duvara toslad\u0131! T\u00fcm anketler Hillary Clinton’\u0131n kazanaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcrken Donald Trump b\u00fcy\u00fck s\u00fcrpriz yaparak ba\u015fkan se\u00e7ildi. 1984’ten beri ba\u015fkanl\u0131k se\u00e7imlerinde hangi aday\u0131n kazanaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 do\u011fru tahmin eden siyasi tarih\u00e7i Allan Lichtman ise bir kez daha do\u011fru tahminde bulundu. \u0130\u015fte se\u00e7im \u00f6ncesi ABD’de yap\u0131lan son 14 anketin sonucu: ABC\/Washington Post: Clinton 47, Trump …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":241715,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[6768,6665,6155,5005,349],"tags":[1887,90402,52600,199658],"class_list":["post-241713","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-amerika","category-dunya","category-gundem","category-manset","category-son-dakika","tag-abd","tag-abd-baskanlik-secimi","tag-abd-secim","tag-donald-trump"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/241713","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=241713"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/241713\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/241715"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=241713"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=241713"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=241713"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}