Anayasa de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi referandumuna 1 aydan az bir zaman kalm\u0131\u015fken ara\u015ft\u0131rma \u015firketleri de yapt\u0131klar\u0131 anket \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n\u0131n sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 kamuoyuna a\u00e7\u0131klamaya devam ediyor. Son olarak SONAR, 10-24 Mart tarihleri aras\u0131nda 5 bin ki\u015fiyle ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdi\u011fi \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n\u0131n sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Buna g\u00f6re, \u2018Hay\u0131r\u2019 oylar\u0131 y\u00fczde 51.02\u2019yle \u00f6nde. Ara\u015ft\u0131rma ayr\u0131ca, referandumun kaderinin karars\u0131z se\u00e7menin elinde oldu\u011funu da g\u00f6sterdi.<\/p>\n
Sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 RS FM\u2019de yay\u0131nlanan Yavuz O\u011fhan\u2019dan Bidebunudinle program\u0131nda de\u011ferlendiren SONAR Ara\u015ft\u0131rma \u015eirketi Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Hakan Bayrak\u00e7\u0131, 15 Temmuz\u2019da ya\u015fanan darbe giri\u015fimi sonras\u0131 ilan edilen OHAL ve ma\u011fdurlar\u0131yla ilgili \u00f6nemli bir fakt\u00f6re dikkat \u00e7ekti. Bayrak\u00e7\u0131, \u00e7o\u011fu karars\u0131z se\u00e7menin siyasi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fleri nedeniyle damgalanmamak ad\u0131na anketlerde kendisini, \u2018karars\u0131z\u2019 olarak nitelendirdi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnde. Yani \u2018karars\u0131z\u2019 se\u00e7men asl\u0131nda oyunu sakl\u0131yor olabilir.<\/p>\n
Anket \u015firketleri i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli olan\u0131n do\u011fru sonucu bulmak oldu\u011funu kaydeden Bayrak\u00e7\u0131, objektif bir \u015fekilde yap\u0131lan \u2018ham\u2019 anketlerde sonucun ba\u015fa ba\u015f oldu\u011funu belirtti. Bayrak\u00e7\u0131, karars\u0131zlar\u0131n hesap edilmedi\u011fi anketlerin sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 42\u2019ye 42 ya da y\u00fczde 41\u2019e 42 oran\u0131nda oldu\u011funu ifade etti.
\nAnketlerde karars\u0131zlar\u0131n \u2018orant\u0131sal\u2019 olarak da\u011f\u0131t\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yleyen Bayrak\u00e7\u0131, \u015fu de\u011ferlendirmeyi yapt\u0131:<\/p>\n\n
\u201cBurada \u00f6nemli olan \u015fudur: Ham anketlerde ister 1 puan \u2018Evet\u2019 ya da \u2018Hay\u0131r\u2019 \u00f6nde \u00e7\u0131ks\u0131n, \u00f6nemli olan karars\u0131z kalan y\u00fczde 15\u2019lik k\u0131sm\u0131n karar\u0131d\u0131r. Ancak karars\u0131z olarak adland\u0131r\u0131lan o k\u0131sm\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00e7o\u011funlu\u011fu, asl\u0131nda kendi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc \u00e7e\u015fitli nedenlerden \u00f6t\u00fcr\u00fc s\u00f6yleyemeyen ki\u015filer. \u00d6rne\u011fin, T\u00fcrk se\u00e7menin y\u00fczde 6\u2019s\u0131 memur. Ben \u00f6\u011fretmen olsam, g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm de \u2018Hay\u0131r\u2019 olsa, kap\u0131ma gelen anket\u00f6re oyumu s\u00f6yleyemem. Niye? \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc OHAL var, 1 dakikada atarlar i\u015ften. Eskiden devlet memurlar\u0131 kolay kolay i\u015ften at\u0131lam\u0131yordu. Ancak \u015fimdi OHAL oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in KHK ile at\u0131labiliyorlar. Ben devletten maa\u015f alan birisi olsam ben kap\u0131ma gelen \u2018Hay\u0131r\u2019 oyu verece\u011fim diyemem. Yani bir kere, devlet memurlar\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015flerini katiyen s\u00f6yleyemiyor. Art\u0131k devlet ile i\u015fi olmayanlar da \u00e7ekiniyor.\u201d<\/p>\n
Bayrak\u00e7\u0131, Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Recep Tayyip Erdo\u011fan ve Ba\u015fbakan Binali Y\u0131ld\u0131r\u0131m ba\u015fta olmak \u00fczere pek \u00e7ok siyasinin a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131\u011f\u0131 anket sonu\u00e7lar\u0131yla ilgili de konu\u015ftu. \u201cCumhurba\u015fkan\u0131na verilen \u00fc\u00e7 anketten birinde y\u00fczde 53 \u2018Evet\u2019, di\u011ferinde y\u00fczde 52 \u2018Evet\u2019, bir di\u011ferinde y\u00fczde 53.5 \u2018Evet\u2019 \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015f\u201d diyen Bayrak\u00e7\u0131 \u015f\u00f6yle devam etti:<\/p>\n
\u201cBu sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 \u00e7\u0131karan arkada\u015flar\u0131m\u0131z hile yap\u0131yor ya da liderlere ho\u015f g\u00f6z\u00fckmek i\u00e7in bu rakamlar\u0131 buluyor demiyorum. Karars\u0131zlar\u0131 orant\u0131sal olarak da\u011f\u0131tt\u0131klar\u0131nda bu sonu\u00e7 \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. \u00d6te yandan \u015firket sahiplerinden biri bana \u2018Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131na y\u00fczde 52 \u2018evet\u2019 dedim ama tedirginim. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc karars\u0131zlar sand\u0131kta orant\u0131sal olarak da\u011f\u0131lmayacak. Karars\u0131zlar i\u00e7inde \u2018hay\u0131r\u2019 fazla gibi geliyor\u2019 dedi. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla ham anketlerde sonu\u00e7 ba\u015fa ba\u015f gidiyor ve neredeyse her \u015firkette rakamlar ayn\u0131. Ancak karars\u0131zlar\u0131n da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131nda farkl\u0131 sonu\u00e7lar \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.\u201d<\/p>\n
SONAR\u2019\u0131n son anketinde \u2018Hay\u0131r\u2019 oylar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6nde \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131na da de\u011finen Bayrak\u00e7\u0131 \u201cYapt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z bir ankette \u2018Evet\u2019 1 puan \u00f6nde \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Ba\u015fka bir ankette ise \u2018Hay\u0131r\u2019 1 puan \u00f6nde \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. En sonunda yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131m hesaplara g\u00f6re 52-53 oran\u0131nda \u2018Hay\u0131r\u2019 \u00e7\u0131kabilir gibi geliyor. Ama ara\u015ft\u0131rma rakamlar\u0131na sad\u0131k kalarak ve temkinli yakla\u015farak bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda 51 k\u00fcsurluk \u2018Hay\u0131r\u2019\u0131 bulduk. Ama bu rakam 52 olursa da \u015fa\u015f\u0131rmam\u201d dedi.<\/p>\n
ANAR Ara\u015ft\u0131rma Genel M\u00fcd\u00fcr\u00fc \u0130brahim Uslu\u2019nun \u2018MHP se\u00e7meninin b\u00fcy\u00fck bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131n \u2018Hay\u0131r\u2019 oyu verecek\u2019 a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131na da de\u011finen Bayrak\u00e7\u0131 \u201cMHP Genel Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Devlet Bah\u00e7eli ne kadar k\u0131zarsa k\u0131zs\u0131n, b\u00fct\u00fcn ara\u015ft\u0131rma \u015firketleri MHP se\u00e7meninin en az 3\u2019te 2\u2019sinin \u2018Hay\u0131r\u2019 oyu kullanaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor\u201d ifadelerini kulland\u0131.<\/p>\n
AKP se\u00e7meninin ne kadar\u0131n\u0131n \u2018hay\u0131r\u2019 oyu verece\u011fi de merak edilen konulardan biri. Bu konuyu de\u011ferlendiren Bayrak\u00e7\u0131, AKP se\u00e7meninin oyunu daha saptayamad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ancak g\u00f6zlemlerine g\u00f6re se\u00e7menin bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131n teredd\u00fct i\u00e7erisinde oldu\u011funu belirtti. Bayrak\u00e7\u0131, Erdo\u011fan\u2019\u0131n 15 Temmuz darbe giri\u015fiminden sonra pop\u00fclaritesinin artt\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve AKP\u2019nin oylar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 43\u2019ten y\u00fczde 49\u2019lara \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
De\u011ferlendirme yaparken hangi oy oran\u0131n\u0131 baz alacaklar\u0131na karar veremediklerini de belirten Bayrak\u00e7\u0131, \u015funlar\u0131 s\u00f6yledi: \u201cG\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm kadar\u0131yla AKP se\u00e7meninin en az\u0131ndan onda biri \u2018Hay\u0131r\u2019 oyu kullanacak. Se\u00e7meni y\u00fczde 43 olarak baz alsak onda biri 4 yapar. Kald\u0131 ki, AKP\u2019nin y\u00fczde 43-45\u2019lik oyunun tamam\u0131 Say\u0131n Erdo\u011fan\u2019\u0131n hayranlar\u0131 de\u011fil. Belki 25 puanl\u0131k k\u0131s\u0131m Erdo\u011fan\u2019a hayran oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in oy veriyordur. Ama geriye kalan 15 puan \u2018istikrar, sa\u011f parti ya da CHP\u2019ye vermiyorum\u2019 diye verilen oylar. O kitle de referandumda \u2018Hay\u0131r\u2019 oyu verece\u011fi tahmin edilen kitle.\u201d<\/p>\n
\u00d6te yandan G\u00fcneydo\u011fu\u2019nun \u00fc\u00e7 ilinde telefonla anket yapt\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yleyen Bayrak\u00e7\u0131 \u201cVan, Mardin ve bir G\u00fcneydo\u011fu ilinden daha al\u0131nan 300\u2019\u00fc a\u015fk\u0131n telefon kay\u0131tlar\u0131n\u0131 tekrar tekrar dinledim ve bana g\u00f6re G\u00fcneydo\u011fu\u2019dan ciddi oranda \u2018Hay\u0131r\u2019 \u00e7\u0131kacak. Yan\u0131labilirim de ama tahminim b\u00f6yle. Baz\u0131 arkada\u015flar\u0131m bana \u2018G\u00fcneydo\u011fu\u2019dan Evet \u00e7\u0131kacak\u2019 diyor. Ama benim g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm \u2018Hay\u0131r\u2019 \u00e7\u0131kaca\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde\u201d diye konu\u015ftu.<\/p>\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 son referandum anketiyle \u2018Hay\u0131r\u2019 oylar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 51\u2019le \u00f6nde oldu\u011funu a\u00e7\u0131klayan SONAR Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Hakan Bayrak\u00e7\u0131 \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n detaylar\u0131n\u0131 anlatt\u0131. Anayasa de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi referandumuna 1 aydan az bir zaman kalm\u0131\u015fken ara\u015ft\u0131rma \u015firketleri de yapt\u0131klar\u0131 anket \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n\u0131n sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 kamuoyuna a\u00e7\u0131klamaya devam ediyor. Son olarak SONAR, 10-24 Mart tarihleri aras\u0131nda 5 bin ki\u015fiyle ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdi\u011fi \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n\u0131n sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Buna g\u00f6re, \u2018Hay\u0131r\u2019 …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":248085,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[6155,5005,6202,349],"tags":[9476,8723,27689,10829,22415,27687],"class_list":["post-248084","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-gundem","category-manset","category-politika","category-son-dakika","tag-akp","tag-chp","tag-hakan-bayrakci","tag-mhp","tag-sonar","tag-sonar-anket-sonuclari"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/248084","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=248084"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/248084\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/248085"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=248084"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=248084"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=248084"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}