![\"\"](\"http:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/06\/sinan-gonen.jpg\" "\\"Sinan")
Neler Oluyor?<\/h1>\nNeler Oluyor?<\/h1>\nUzun bir aradan tekrar birlikteyiz sevgili okuyucular.. Sizlerle\u00a0birlikte olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z s\u00fcre zarfinda Avrupa’da ciddi bir bor\u00e7 krizi\u00a0oldu\u011fu ortaya \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<\/strong><\/p>\n Ba\u015fta Yunanistan olmak \u00fczere \u0130spanya, \u0130rlanda ve\u00a0Portekiz’in b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n gayri safi milli has\u0131lalar\u0131n\u0131n %10 unun Cuma bu krizdeki \u00fclkelere Macaristan eklendi. Ba\u015fbakan\u0131n\u00a0s\u00f6zc\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131na g\u00f6re sene sonu b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 %3-3,5 olmas\u0131\u00a0beklenen Macaristan b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 yeni veriler \u0131\u015f\u0131\u011f\u0131nda %7,5 civar\u0131nda\u00a0olacakm\u0131\u015f. Daha \u00f6nce a\u00e7\u0131klanan \u0130ran Merkez Bankas\u0131’n\u0131n 45 milyar EURO\u00a0sataca\u011f\u0131 haberi ile bu haber birle\u015fince euro\/dolar paritesi 1,20 nin\u00a0alt\u0131na indi borsalarda g\u00fcnl\u00fck %3 lere varan kay\u0131plar ya\u015fandi. Dolar\/Tl\u00a01,6, \u0130MKB 54613, g\u00f6sterge bono faizi 8,81 kapand\u0131.<\/p>\n Ge\u00e7en cuma k\u00f6t\u00fc haberler bu kadarla da s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 de\u011fildi. Bir\u00a0ay\u0131n en piyasa hareketlendiren verilerinden olan Amerikan Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131\u00a0\u0130stihdam Raporu 550 000 olan beklentinin olduk\u00e7a alt\u0131nda kalarak 431\u00a0000 olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Baz\u0131 okuyucular ”6ay evveline kadar i\u015f\u00a0yaratamayan Amerikan Ekonomisi 400 000 den fazla istihdam yaratm\u0131\u015f bu Peki bundan sonra ne olur? Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc 10000’in alt\u0131ndan kapatan\u00a0Dow Jones’un etkisiyle bilhassa borsada etkili sat\u0131\u015flar olur. Dikkat\u00a0ederseniz bizim borsam\u0131z di\u011fer belli ba\u015fl\u0131 borsalar\u0131n aksine bu sene\u00a0g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc en y\u00fcksek yerden %10 dan daha az d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc dolay\u0131s\u0131yla biz biraz\u00a0daha pahal\u0131y\u0131z gibi geliyor bana. Bu durum \u00fclkemizin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bor\u00e7\u00a0dinamikleri ile a\u00e7\u0131klanabilinir. B\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z %4,5, toplam bor\u00e7\/GDP\u00a0ise %59 civar\u0131nda yani bir\u00e7ok Avrupa \u00fclkesinden Maastricht kriterleri\u00a0a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan daha iyi durumday\u0131z ama unutmamak laz\u0131mki bizim de kendimize\u00a0ait \u00f6zel risklerimiz var(\u0130srail ile olan gerginlik ve Anayasa\u00a0Mahkemesi’nin anayasa de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fini reddedip h\u00fck\u00fcmetin erken se\u00e7ime\u00a0gitme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131).<\/p>\n D\u00fczg\u00fcn bor\u00e7 dinamiklerimizden dolay\u0131 TL g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc\u00a0kalmaya devam edebilir euro\/dolar paritesi etkisiyle dolar belki Bonoyu 9un alt\u0131nda\u00a0almaktansa en mant\u0131kl\u0131 hareket %9,5-10 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan mevduat yapmak gibi\u00a0geliyor bana en az\u0131ndan \u015fu karga\u015fa ge\u00e7ene kadar..<\/p>\n Kazan\u00e7l\u0131 bir hafta olmas\u0131 dile\u011fiyle..<\/p>\n
\n\u00fcst\u00fcnde olmas\u0131(maastricht kriterlerine g\u00f6re en fazla 3 olmal\u0131) ve bu\u00a0\u00fclkelerin toplam borclar\u0131n\u0131n gayri safi milli has\u0131lalar\u0131na oranlar\u0131n\u0131n\u00a0%70 ila 100 \u00fcn aras\u0131nda olmalar\u0131 (yine maastricht kriterlerine g\u00f6re 60’\u0131n alt\u0131 olmas\u0131 laz\u0131m) bu krizi tetikledi.<\/p>\n
\nneden be\u011fenilmiyor?” diye merak edebilirler hemen cevab\u0131n\u0131 vereyim.\u00a0Amerika’da bu sene sonbaharda n\u00fcfus say\u0131m\u0131 var. \u0130\u015f bulan 431 000\u00a0ki\u015finin 390 000 den fazlas\u0131 bu y\u00fczden ge\u00e7ici olarak istihdam edildi\u00a0yani \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r taraf\u0131ndan i\u015fe al\u0131nan insan say\u0131s\u0131 \u00e7ok az. Amerikan\u00a0Ekonomisi’nin %70 i t\u00fcketici harcamas\u0131ndan olu\u015fur ve i\u015fsizlik bu\u00a0harcamay\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrece\u011finden piyasalar bu veriye \u00e7ok hassast\u0131r. Her ne\u00a0kadar i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 %9,8 den 9,7 ye d\u00fc\u015fm\u00fc\u015fse de bunun sebebi daha \u00e7ok\u00a0insan\u0131n i\u015f bulmas\u0131 de\u011fil, insanlar\u0131n cesaretlerinin k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131p i\u015f aramay\u0131\u00a0b\u0131rakmalar\u0131 ve istihdam piyasas\u0131ndan \u00e7\u0131kmalar\u0131d\u0131r. Ayr\u0131ca son\u00a0a\u00e7\u0131klanan verilere g\u00f6re i\u015fsiz bir amerikal\u0131 i\u015f bulmak i\u00e7in ortalama\u00a034,4 hafta bekliyor yani i\u015fe al\u0131nma h\u0131z\u0131 ger\u00e7ekten \u00e7ok d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck ve\u00a0i\u015fsizlik daha uzun bir s\u00fcre Avrupa’n\u0131n bor\u00e7 y\u00fck\u00fcyle birlikte
\npiyasalar\u0131n \u00fcst\u00fcnde Demokles’in k\u0131l\u0131c\u0131 gibi duraca\u011fa benziyor. E\u011fer\u00a0bilhassa borsada yat\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n\u0131z varsa her ay\u0131n ilk cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanan bu\u00a0detaya \u00e7ok dikkat edin.<\/p>\n
\n1,60\u0131n \u00fcst\u00fcne \u00e7\u0131kar ama oralarda bence fazla kalamaz(yerli yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131\u00a0hemen sat\u0131\u015fa ge\u00e7iyor). Borsadan bence sayd\u0131\u011f\u0131m i\u00e7 ve d\u0131\u015f nedenlerden\u00a0dolay\u0131 bu aralar biraz uzak kalmal\u0131, ben bir k\u0131s\u0131m ekonomist gibi bu\u00a0ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z \u00e7alkant\u0131n\u0131n bir \u00e7ift dip oldu\u011funu de\u011fil bir d\u00fczeltme\u00a0oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc ba\u015fl\u0131ca b\u00fct\u00fcn merkez bankalar\u0131 bu kadar\u00a0para basarken \u00e7ift dip bana mant\u0131kl\u0131 gelmiyor. Teoriye g\u00f6re\u00a0d\u00fczeltmelerde borsalar g\u00f6rd\u00fckleri en y\u00fcksek noktadan %10 ila 20 aras\u0131
\nd\u00fc\u015ferler \u0130MKB daha %10 bile d\u00fc\u015fmedi\u011finden ben biraz daha d\u00fc\u015fmesini\u00a0beklemek taraftar\u0131y\u0131m, 51500 kritik seviye..<\/p>\n