T\u00fcrkiye, ge\u00e7mi\u015f y\u0131llarda AB ortalamas\u0131ndan daha y\u00fcksek do\u011furganl\u0131k h\u0131z\u0131yla dikkati \u00e7ekiyordu. Ancak do\u011furganl\u0131k h\u0131z\u0131 2023 y\u0131l\u0131nda AB’de 1,54 \u00e7ocuk olurken, T\u00fcrkiye’de 1,51’de kald\u0131. T\u00fcrkiye’nin do\u011furganl\u0131k h\u0131z\u0131 27 AB \u00fclkesinden 16’s\u0131n\u0131n gerisinde yer ald\u0131.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrkiye’nin do\u011furganl\u0131k h\u0131z\u0131 2022’de 1,62 \u00e7ocuk olurken, AB ortalamas\u0131 1,53 olarak belirlenmi\u015fti. Do\u011furganl\u0131k h\u0131z\u0131 2021’de de 1,70 ile AB ortalamas\u0131n\u0131n \u00fczerinde yer al\u0131yordu. T\u00fcrkiye’nin 2001 y\u0131l\u0131ndaki do\u011furganl\u0131k h\u0131z\u0131 ise 2,38 seviyelerinde bulunuyordu.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrkiye’nin do\u011furganl\u0131k h\u0131z\u0131 ge\u00e7en y\u0131l itibar\u0131yla d\u00fcnya ortalamas\u0131n\u0131n da alt\u0131nda yer al\u0131yor. BM verilerine g\u00f6re 2023’te d\u00fcnya ortalamas\u0131 2,31 \u00e7ocuk olurken, T\u00fcrkiye 1,51 ile s\u0131ralamada ilk 100 \u00fclke i\u00e7erisinde bulunmuyor.<\/p>\n
Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Recep Tayyip Erdo\u011fan da T\u00fcrkiye’nin n\u00fcfusun kendini yenileme e\u015fi\u011fi olan 2,1 seviyesinin alt\u0131nda oldu\u011funa dikkati \u00e7ekerek, “N\u00fcfus, millet olarak en b\u00fcy\u00fck g\u00fcc\u00fcm\u00fczd\u00fcr ve bunu korumak zorunday\u0131z. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nemde bu konuda daha kararl\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131z.” de\u011ferlendirmesinde bulunmu\u015ftu.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de n\u00fcfus azalmaya ba\u015flayabilir<\/strong><\/h3>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/dogurganlik.jpg\" "\\"\\"")
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Hacettepe \u00dcniversitesi N\u00fcfus Et\u00fctleri Enstit\u00fcs\u00fc \u00d6\u011fretim \u00dcyesi Do\u00e7. Dr. Ay\u015fe Abbaso\u011flu \u00d6zg\u00f6ren, konuya ili\u015fkin de\u011ferlendirmesinde, T\u00fcrkiye’de toplam do\u011furganl\u0131k h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n 1950’lerden bu yana genel olarak d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f e\u011filiminde oldu\u011funa i\u015faret etti.<\/p>\n
Do\u011furganl\u0131k h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fmesi sonucu n\u00fcfusun ya\u015flanmas\u0131 olgusuyla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirten \u00d6zg\u00f6ren, \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma \u00e7a\u011f\u0131ndaki n\u00fcfusun azalmaya ba\u015flamas\u0131 ve ya\u015fl\u0131 n\u00fcfus oran\u0131n\u0131n artmas\u0131 sonucu n\u00fcfusun do\u011frudan azalmaya ba\u015flayabilece\u011fi uyar\u0131s\u0131nda bulundu.<\/p>\n
\u00d6zg\u00f6ren, do\u011furganl\u0131k h\u0131z\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn uzun s\u00fcrecin sonucu oldu\u011funu ve bu e\u011filimi durduracak veya yava\u015flatacak politikalar\u0131n 2008’den bu yana g\u00fcndemde oldu\u011funu an\u0131msatt\u0131.<\/p>\n
BM taraf\u0131ndan demografik f\u0131rsat penceresinin “40 ya\u015f \u00fczeri n\u00fcfusun toplam n\u00fcfusun yar\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 olu\u015fturdu\u011fu noktadan \u00f6nce, 15 ya\u015f alt\u0131 n\u00fcfusun toplam n\u00fcfusun y\u00fczde 30’undan az oldu\u011fu ve 65 ya\u015f ve \u00fcst\u00fc n\u00fcfusun toplam n\u00fcfusun y\u00fczde 15’inden az oldu\u011fu d\u00f6nem” olarak tan\u0131mland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirten \u00d6zg\u00f6ren, \u015fu de\u011ferlendirmede bulundu:<\/p>\n
“T\u00fcrkiye i\u00e7in demografik f\u0131rsat penceresi halen a\u00e7\u0131k ancak bu f\u0131rsat 2040’lara kadar s\u00fcrecek, bunu yakla\u015fmakta olan bir alarm gibi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnebiliriz. T\u00fcrkiye’de do\u011furganl\u0131k h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fcnya ortalamas\u0131n\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131karmak yerine 11. ve 12. Kalk\u0131nma planlar\u0131nda da belirtildi\u011fi gibi do\u011furganl\u0131\u011f\u0131 yenilenme d\u00fczeyinin \u00fczerinde tutmak daha ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i bir hedef olacakt\u0131r.”<\/p>\n
Ya\u015f yap\u0131s\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fiyor<\/strong><\/h3>\n\u200b\u200b\u200b\u200b\u200b\u200b\u200bAnkara Sosyal Bilimler \u00dcniversitesi Sosyal ve Be\u015feri Bilimler Fak\u00fcltesi Sosyoloji B\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc \u00d6\u011fretim \u00dcyesi Prof. Dr. Sutay Yavuz da T\u00fcrkiye’nin demografik d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm s\u00fcrecinde olan \u00fclkeler aras\u0131nda yer ald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve b\u00fcy\u00fck oranda bu s\u00fcreci tamamlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
Bu durumun, T\u00fcrkiye’nin ya\u015f yap\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n de\u011fi\u015fti\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi\u011fini ve n\u00fcfus piramidinin taban\u0131nda art\u0131k belirgin bir daralma olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bildiren Yavuz, bu piramidin orta k\u0131sm\u0131nda ve yakla\u015f\u0131k 20-30 sene sonra da tepe noktalar\u0131nda geni\u015fleme g\u00f6r\u00fclece\u011fini anlatt\u0131.<\/p>\n
Yavuz, do\u011furganl\u0131k h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n yeniden y\u00fckseli\u015fe ge\u00e7mesi i\u00e7in \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma hayat\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fczenlenmesi ve bar\u0131nma konusundaki sorunlar\u0131n giderilmesinin \u00f6nem ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 aktar\u0131rken, kentlerde \u00e7ocuklu ailelerin daha kolay hareket edebilece\u011fi alanlar\u0131n olu\u015fturulmas\u0131 ve kre\u015f say\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n art\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini bildirdi.<\/p>\n
Bu politikalar\u0131n \u0131srarl\u0131 \u015fekilde uygulanmas\u0131 durumunda etkilerinin g\u00f6r\u00fclebilece\u011fine i\u015faret eden Yavuz, \u015funlar\u0131 kaydetti:<\/p>\n
“Bunlar bir \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde \u0131srarl\u0131 \u015fekilde uyguland\u0131\u011f\u0131nda sonu\u00e7 veriyorlar ama bu sonu\u00e7 hi\u00e7bir zaman do\u011furganl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ikiye katlam\u0131yor. Bunun bizim a\u00e7\u0131m\u0131zdan \u00f6nemli taraf\u0131 bu oranlar\u0131n daha fazla d\u00fc\u015fmemesi. \u00c7ocuk sahibi olmaya yak\u0131n ancak karars\u0131zl\u0131k ya\u015fayan insanlar\u0131 bulup onlar\u0131n ihtiya\u00e7lar\u0131na beklentilerine uygun politikalar tasarlamak laz\u0131m.”
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<\/p>\n\u200b\u200b\u200b\u200b\u200b\u200b\u200bAnkara Sosyal Bilimler \u00dcniversitesi Sosyal ve Be\u015feri Bilimler Fak\u00fcltesi Sosyoloji B\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc \u00d6\u011fretim \u00dcyesi Prof. Dr. Sutay Yavuz da T\u00fcrkiye’nin demografik d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm s\u00fcrecinde olan \u00fclkeler aras\u0131nda yer ald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve b\u00fcy\u00fck oranda bu s\u00fcreci tamamlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
Bu durumun, T\u00fcrkiye’nin ya\u015f yap\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n de\u011fi\u015fti\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi\u011fini ve n\u00fcfus piramidinin taban\u0131nda art\u0131k belirgin bir daralma olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bildiren Yavuz, bu piramidin orta k\u0131sm\u0131nda ve yakla\u015f\u0131k 20-30 sene sonra da tepe noktalar\u0131nda geni\u015fleme g\u00f6r\u00fclece\u011fini anlatt\u0131.<\/p>\n
Yavuz, do\u011furganl\u0131k h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n yeniden y\u00fckseli\u015fe ge\u00e7mesi i\u00e7in \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma hayat\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fczenlenmesi ve bar\u0131nma konusundaki sorunlar\u0131n giderilmesinin \u00f6nem ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 aktar\u0131rken, kentlerde \u00e7ocuklu ailelerin daha kolay hareket edebilece\u011fi alanlar\u0131n olu\u015fturulmas\u0131 ve kre\u015f say\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n art\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini bildirdi.<\/p>\n
Bu politikalar\u0131n \u0131srarl\u0131 \u015fekilde uygulanmas\u0131 durumunda etkilerinin g\u00f6r\u00fclebilece\u011fine i\u015faret eden Yavuz, \u015funlar\u0131 kaydetti:<\/p>\n
“Bunlar bir \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde \u0131srarl\u0131 \u015fekilde uyguland\u0131\u011f\u0131nda sonu\u00e7 veriyorlar ama bu sonu\u00e7 hi\u00e7bir zaman do\u011furganl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ikiye katlam\u0131yor. Bunun bizim a\u00e7\u0131m\u0131zdan \u00f6nemli taraf\u0131 bu oranlar\u0131n daha fazla d\u00fc\u015fmemesi. \u00c7ocuk sahibi olmaya yak\u0131n ancak karars\u0131zl\u0131k ya\u015fayan insanlar\u0131 bulup onlar\u0131n ihtiya\u00e7lar\u0131na beklentilerine uygun politikalar tasarlamak laz\u0131m.”
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