{"id":30589,"date":"2010-07-01T09:32:03","date_gmt":"2010-07-01T07:32:03","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/?p=30589"},"modified":"2019-03-28T11:23:51","modified_gmt":"2019-03-28T08:23:51","slug":"yeni-ekonomik-kriz-6018734","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/yeni-ekonomik-kriz-6018734\/","title":{"rendered":"Yeni bir finansal kriz gelir mi?"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"2008 Krizini \u00f6nceden tahmin eden felaket kahini Roubini, ikinci bir finansal krizin yolda oldu\u011funu buyurmu\u015f. Roubini hen\u00fcz Nostradamus ile ayn\u0131 tak\u0131mda oynamasa da 2008 y\u0131l\u0131ndaki referans\u0131 Roubini’yi kriz tellal\u0131 yapt\u0131.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Asl\u0131nda yukar\u0131daki sorunun cevab\u0131n\u0131 vermek i\u00e7in Nostradamus olmak ta gerekmiyor \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc 2008 krizi sonras\u0131 d\u00fcnyada yeni krizlerin olmamas\u0131 extra bir \u00f6nlem hala al\u0131nmad\u0131 veya var olan yanl\u0131\u015f sistem de\u011fi\u015ftirilmedi sadece sistem \u00fczerine birka\u00e7 k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck rutu\u015fla d\u00fczeltilmesi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc.K\u0131saca ameliyat olmas\u0131 gereken hastaya a\u011fr\u0131 kesici verildi.<\/p>\n

Son 2008 krizinden hangi dersler al\u0131nd\u0131 ki art\u0131k sistem daha sa\u011flam,daha g\u00fcvenli daha az harcay\u0131p daha fazla tasarruf sa\u011flayan ve daha stabil duruma gelsin ve insanlar art\u0131k gelece\u011fe g\u00fcvenle bak\u0131yor diyebilelim? ABD de ba\u015flayan fakat Avrupa Birli\u011fi \u00fclkelerinde daha \u015fiddetli ya\u015fanan krizde en b\u00fcy\u00fck s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131 bankalarda. AB’deki temel bankac\u0131l\u0131k sorunu asl\u0131nda Almanya\u2019n\u0131n di\u011fer \u00fclkeleri kendi gibi g\u00f6rmesi ve AB i\u00e7inde kanser gibi b\u00fcy\u00fcyen bu \u00fclkelerin te\u015fhisini zaman\u0131nda koyamamas\u0131 oldu.Yani Almanya ya bu durumu g\u00f6remedi yada g\u00f6zmezden geldi.<\/p>\n

Ge\u00e7en haftaki G20 toplant\u0131s\u0131 da Sistemin yap\u0131s\u0131nda var olan maddi risk nas\u0131l azalt\u0131l\u0131r? Mevduat bankas\u0131-yat\u0131r\u0131m bankas\u0131 ayr\u0131m\u0131 yapmak bize ne kazand\u0131r\u0131r? Varl\u0131k baloncuklar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 para politikas\u0131 kullan\u0131labilir mi? Futures,Cds i\u015flemlerini nas\u0131l daha g\u00fcvenli hale getiririz sorular\u0131n\u0131n kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 gene \u00fclke patronlar\u0131 taraf\u0131ndan cevaps\u0131z kald\u0131. AB \u00fclkelerinin kamu harcamalar\u0131n\u0131 k\u0131sma fikri ile ba\u015flayan ve yeni vergiler,asgari \u00fccret ayarlamalar\u0131,memur maa\u015f indirimleri,b\u00fcrokratik harcamalar k\u0131s\u0131nt\u0131s\u0131 derken \u015fimdide elektirik tasarrufu gibi kemer s\u0131kma politikas\u0131 ilede bu krizin a\u015f\u0131lamayaca\u011f\u0131 a\u015fikar. Asl\u0131nda herkesin bildi\u011fi bu sorulara nedense G20 kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 kulak t\u0131kad\u0131 ve kanserli AB’ye sadece a\u011fr\u0131 kesici verdiler diyebiliriz. Para muslu\u011fu k\u0131sa vadeli a\u011fr\u0131 kesici gibi \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm olsada mikrobun yay\u0131lma h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131 da artt\u0131r\u0131yor. Mikrobun t\u00fcm d\u00fcnyaya bula\u015fmas\u0131 ise art\u0131k ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz. Ba\u015fta sadece bir uzuva-\u00fclkeye yay\u0131lm\u0131\u015f kanserli h\u00fccre art\u0131k b\u00fct\u00fcn vucutta -d\u00fcnyada. G20 toplant\u0131 sonras\u0131nda yap\u0131lan a\u00e7\u0131klamalarda genel olarak bor\u00e7 sorunu olan \u00fclkelerin kendilerine \u00e7eki d\u00fczen verecekleri ve 2013 y\u0131l\u0131na kadar b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131\/GSYIH oranlar\u0131n\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekmek amac\u0131yla b\u00fct\u00e7e dissiplini uygulayacaklar\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131lar. Bu arada Obama \u00e7ok kat\u0131 b\u00fct\u00e7e disiplininin, toparlanmaya ba\u015flayan global b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi sekteye u\u011fratabilece\u011fini, bu nedenle de, \u00e7ok kat\u0131 davran\u0131lmamas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini s\u00f6ylese de, bildiri de b\u00fct\u00e7e disiplinine vurgu yap\u0131ld\u0131ktan sonra, \u00fclke baz\u0131nda, b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi destekleyici esnek politikalar da t\u00fcm\u00fcyle g\u00f6zard\u0131 edildi.<\/p>\n

G\u00fcven g\u00f6stergesi VIX endeksi pek hareketli. Ba\u015fka bir g\u00fcven g\u00f6stergesi olan borsalar ise a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki datadan da anla\u015f\u0131laca\u011f\u0131 gibi genel olarak zay\u0131f. Fakat T\u00fcrkiye \u0130MKB ile d\u00fcnya borsalar\u0131ndan 2010 y\u0131l\u0131 performans\u0131 ile a\u00e7\u0131kara \u00f6nde. \u0130\u015fte bu d\u00fcnyadan ayr\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015f gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcnen durum ve 30 haziranda a\u00e7\u0131klanan b\u00fcy\u00fcme rakamlar\u0131n\u0131n 11.7 gibi y\u00fcksek bir rakam ile G20 \u00fclkelerine g\u00f6re \u00fcst\u00fcn performans g\u00f6stermesi ama \u00f6b\u00fcr tarafta, reel piyasalardaki durgunluk. Talepteki durgunluk,arzada yans\u0131y\u0131nca istihdam,\u00fcretim gibi bir\u00e7ok kalemi etkiliyor ve hem yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131y\u0131 hemde bankalar\u0131 diken \u00fcst\u00fcnde tutuyor.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

E\u011fer, k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcme 2-3 ay i\u00e7inde yeniden h\u0131zlanmazsa, y\u0131l sonuna do\u011fru, ya da 2011 ba\u015flar\u0131nda yeni finansal krizlerden ve 2008 deki finansal krizden yap\u0131s\u0131 ve seyri ile farkl\u0131 yeni bir kriz kap\u0131da diyebiliriz. Ama AB toparlan\u0131r, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar y\u0131l boyunca riskli varl\u0131klar\u0131 temkinli fiyatlarsa, kriz ertelenebilir.Zira ABD bankalar\u0131 bilan\u00e7olar\u0131n\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde temizlediler ve dev sermaye art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 ile likiditeyi art\u0131rd\u0131lar. Arkalar\u0131nda ise koskoca FED var i\u015fler k\u00f6t\u00fc gitti\u011finde seri hareketlerle sorunun \u00fczerine gidebiliyorlar. AB’de ise bankalar\u0131n riskleri bile saklan\u0131yor olu\u015fu \u015feffaf bir y\u00f6netim anlay\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan yoksun olmalar\u0131 yeni krizde ba\u015fl\u0131ca rol alacaklar gibi duruyor. AB Merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n olaylara direk m\u00fcdahele edememesi veya ge\u00e7 kalmas\u0131 ba\u015fka bir sorun. Bankalar demi\u015fken sistemin kriz sonras\u0131 en b\u00fcy\u00fck yanl\u0131\u015flar\u0131ndan biri olan reel ekonomiden \u00e7ekilme politikas\u0131 ise tutmad\u0131. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc, bankalar reel ekonomiye kredi vermek yerine, portf\u00f6ylerinde finansal varl\u0131klar\u0131 (D\u0130BS, \u00fclke tahvilleri,G20 CDSlerini) artt\u0131r\u0131yor geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclke borsalar\u0131nda takas yap\u0131yor ve alt\u0131n gibi de\u011ferli metallere y\u00f6neliyorlar. B\u00fct\u00fcn d\u00fcnyada tart\u0131\u015f\u0131lan finans denetim mimarisinin temel amac\u0131, bankalar\u0131n t\u00fcrev finansal \u00fcr\u00fcnlerde daha fazla risk almas\u0131n\u0131 engellemek, ama kredi vermelerini kolayla\u015ft\u0131rmak olmal\u0131yd\u0131. Bunun yerine bankalar reel ekonomiye daha az kredi vererek riskten ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131r oldu. Bankalar\u0131n kredilerden dolay\u0131 d\u00fc\u015fen gelirlerinin yerine extra gelir aray\u0131\u015flar\u0131 ise halen devam ediyor.<\/p>\n

Di\u011fer taraftan yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131m kurulu\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131\u011f\u0131 raporlarda T\u00fcrkiyeden \u00f6vg\u00fc ile bahsedilse de \u00f6zellikle politik geli\u015fmelere ve se\u00e7im riskine dikkat \u00e7ekilmeye ba\u015fland\u0131. T\u00fcm yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131m kurulu\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n laf birli\u011fi etmi\u015fcesine \u00f6zellikle politik alandaki geli\u015fmeler, Anayasa mahkemesinde \u00e7\u0131kacak bir karar \u00fczerine erken se\u00e7im riski nedeniyle T\u00fcrkiye ‘de borsan\u0131n y\u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fcn de\u011fi\u015febilece\u011fi yorumlar\u0131na kat\u0131l\u0131yorum. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalar T\u00fcrkiye i\u00e7in \u00e7ok \u00f6nemli olacakt\u0131r.\u00d6zellikle se\u00e7im konusunda yo\u011fun tart\u0131\u015fmalar ya\u015fanabilir ve bu da \u00e7ok ciddi anlamda piyasalar\u0131 etkileyebilir diye d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum. K\u0131saca bundan sonra e\u011fer USD-TL paritesinde yukar\u0131 ve IMKB de a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 hareket olacaksa temel sebep politik fakt\u00f6rler olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n

\u00d6mer Demir<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n


\n<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

2008 Krizini \u00f6nceden tahmin eden felaket kahini Roubini, ikinci bir finansal krizin yolda oldu\u011funu buyurmu\u015f. Roubini hen\u00fcz Nostradamus ile ayn\u0131 tak\u0131mda oynamasa da 2008 y\u0131l\u0131ndaki referans\u0131 Roubini’yi kriz tellal\u0131 yapt\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":9192212,"featured_media":30590,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[6199,6155,5005,6805],"tags":[2174,33665,195946,12916,686,28547,33666,8212,195988,33661,33662,12917,33663,33664],"class_list":["post-30589","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ekonomi","category-gundem","category-manset","category-turkiye","tag-almanya","tag-almanya-ekonomi","tag-ekonomi","tag-ekonomi-yazilari","tag-ekonomik-kriz","tag-g20","tag-g20-toplantisi","tag-imkb","tag-omer-demir","tag-roubini","tag-roubini-tahminleri","tag-turkiye-ekonomisi","tag-yeni-ekonomik-kriz","tag-yeni-finansal-kriz"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30589","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/9192212"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30589"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30589\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/30590"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30589"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30589"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30589"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}