{"id":31868,"date":"2010-07-12T17:09:56","date_gmt":"2010-07-12T14:09:56","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/?p=31868"},"modified":"2019-03-28T11:25:15","modified_gmt":"2019-03-28T08:25:15","slug":"uyusunda-buyusun","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/uyusunda-buyusun\/","title":{"rendered":"Uyusunda b\u00fcy\u00fcs\u00fcn"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong><a href=\"http:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/07\/omer_demir.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignleft size-full wp-image-30590\" title=\"\u00d6mer Demir\" src=\"http:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/07\/omer_demir.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"88\" height=\"115\"><\/a>T\u00fcrkiye \u0130statistik Kurumu (T\u00dc\u0130K), T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin bu y\u0131l\u0131n birinci \u00e7eyre\u011finde y\u00fczde 11,7 b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. <\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Krizin T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisini en \u015fiddetle etkiledi\u011fi d\u00f6nem olan 2009\u2019un ba\u015f\u0131nda milli gelirin  bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131l\u0131n (2008\u2019in) ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemine (ocak-mart 2008\u2019e) g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 14.5 oran\u0131nda k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclm\u00fc\u015f olmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan gelen bu veri , barda\u011f\u0131n dolu yada bo\u015f taraf\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rmek deyimiyle a\u00e7\u0131klanabilir. Ama basit bir hesapla 2009\u2019da ,2008\u2019e g\u00f6re % 14.7 k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fcl\u00fcp sonra %11.7 b\u00fcy\u00fcmek, h\u00e2l\u00e2 2008\u2019in milli gelir d\u00fczeyine gelinmedi\u011fini g\u00f6sterir.Burada e\u011fer var ise ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmeden rahats\u0131z imaj\u0131 vermeyelim tabiki b\u00fcy\u00fcme verileri g\u00fcndelik hayata hemencecik yans\u0131yacak, i\u015fsizlik d\u00fc\u015fecek, gelir da\u011fl\u0131m\u0131nda adalet sa\u011flanacak varsay\u0131m\u0131 do\u011fru de\u011fil ,ama verilerinden do\u011fru okunmas\u0131 kanaatindeyim.<\/p>\n<p>&#8221;TU\u0130K, \u00fcretim y\u00f6ntemiyle hesaplanan GSYH tahmininde, 2010 y\u0131l\u0131 birinci \u00fc\u00e7 ayl\u0131k d\u00f6neminde bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemine g\u00f6re cari fiyatlarla GSYH, y\u00fczde 16&#8217;l\u0131k art\u0131\u015fla 243 milyar 258 milyon lira oldu.Sabit fiyatlarla ise bu d\u00f6nemde ekonomi y\u00fczde 11,7 b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyle 23 milyar 350 milyon lira olarak a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131,bununla beraber takvim etkisinden ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f sabit fiyatlarla GSYH bu y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemine g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 11,7&#8217;lik art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6sterdi. Mevsim ve takvim etkilerinden ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f GSYH de\u011feri de bir \u00f6nceki d\u00f6neme g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 0,1 artt\u0131 denildi.Habere g\u00f6re T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinde 2010 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde en fazla b\u00fcy\u00fcme g\u00f6steren sekt\u00f6r, toptan ve perakende ticaret oldu. 2009 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde y\u00fczde 26,2 oran\u0131nda daralan toptan ve perakende ticaret bu y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 d\u00f6neminde y\u00fczde 22,4 oran\u0131n\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcme g\u00f6sterdi denildi.Yine 2009 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde y\u00fczde 22,3 oran\u0131nda k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclen imalat sanayinde, 2010 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n ayn\u0131 d\u00f6neminde y\u00fczde 20,6 oran\u0131da b\u00fcy\u00fcme ya\u015fand\u0131 denildi.2010 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n ilk \u00fc\u00e7 ay\u0131nda tar\u0131m, avc\u0131l\u0131k ve ormanc\u0131l\u0131k y\u00fczde 3,8 ve oteller ve lokantalar y\u00fczde 2,1 oranlar\u0131nda daralma g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc denilen veride Ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemde b\u00fcy\u00fcme rakamlar\u0131 bal\u0131k\u00e7\u0131l\u0131kta y\u00fczde 4,7, madencilik ve ta\u015focak\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131nda y\u00fczde 6,1, elektrik, gaz, s\u0131cak su \u00fcretimi ve da\u011f\u0131t\u0131m\u0131nda y\u00fczde 2,4, in\u015faatta y\u00fczde 8, ula\u015ft\u0131rma, depolama ve haberle\u015fmede y\u00fczde 11,3, mali arac\u0131 kurulu\u015flar\u0131n faaliyetinde y\u00fczde 4,7, konut sahipli\u011finde y\u00fczde 2,4, gayrimenkul, kiralama ve i\u015f faaliyetlerinde y\u00fczde 11,4, kamu y\u00f6netimi ve savunma zorunlu sosyal g\u00fcvenlikte y\u00fczde 0,6, e\u011fitimde y\u00fczde 1,8, sa\u011fl\u0131k i\u015fleri ve sosyal hizmetlerde y\u00fczde 5,2, di\u011fer sosyal, toplumsal ve ki\u015fisel hizmet faaliyetlerinde y\u00fczde 5,5, evi\u00e7i personel \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131ran hanehalklar\u0131nda y\u00fczde 10,2, dolayl\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fclen mali arac\u0131l\u0131k hizmetlerinde y\u00fczde 11,1, vergi s\u00fcbvansiyonlarda y\u00fczde 16,9 oldu denildi.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>Ancak  TU\u0130K &#8216;in a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ,bu d\u00fcnyan\u0131n \u00c7in&#8217;den sonraki ikinci b\u00fcy\u00fck b\u00fcy\u00fcme verisi  yukar\u0131da da belirtti\u011fim gibi ekonominin 2010\u2019un ilk  ceyreginde b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinden de\u011fil 2009 y\u0131l\u0131 gene ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nem olan ilk \u00e7eyrekteki  GSYH\u2019\u0131n y\u00fczde 14.5 gibi b\u00fcy\u00fck bir rakam k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclmesinden kaynaklanmakta.TU\u0130K &#8216;in a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131\u011f\u0131 veride \u00f6nemli olan ba\u015fka bir detay ise mevsim ve takvim etkisinden ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f ibaresi. Buna g\u00f6re 2010 &#8216;un ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde bir \u00f6nceki \u00e7eyre\u011fe g\u00f6re sadece 0.1 b\u00fcy\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f\u00fcz.Yani ekonomi reel olarak bu \u00e7eyrekte b\u00fcy\u00fcmedi.B\u00fcy\u00fcmenin bu kadar yava\u015flam\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131 ise kriz sonras\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme trendinin inan\u0131lmaz yava\u015f olaca\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ederek tedirginli\u011fimizi artt\u0131r\u0131yor.K\u0131saca b\u00fcy\u00fcme d\u00fcnya ikincisi de olsa \u00e7ift haneli olarak Avrupa birincisi olsa dahi ileriye d\u00f6n\u00fck umut vaadetmedi\u011fi kesin.<\/p>\n<p>Keza \u00f6zel t\u00fcketim harcamalar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye olan katk\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n %7.4 olmas\u0131 ve stok de\u011fi\u015fimlerinin %6.4 olmas\u0131 bize i\u00e7 talepteki canlanma umudu vermesin.\u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc bu rakam firmalar\u0131n stok azalmalar\u0131ndan ve nakite ge\u00e7i\u015flerinden ba\u015fka bi\u015fey de\u011fil.\u0130lave olarak , biraz daha yak\u0131ndan mercek alt\u0131na al\u0131nan say\u0131lar, 2010\u2019un ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde i\u00e7 t\u00fcketimin kriz \u00f6ncesinin yani 2008\u2019in \u00e7izgisini yakalayamad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Krizin derinle\u015fti\u011fi 2009 ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde i\u00e7 t\u00fcketim y\u00fczde 10 daralm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. 2010 ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde ise t\u00fcketim, krizde dibe vurulan 2009 ilk \u00e7eyre\u011fini y\u00fczde 9,6 ile a\u015fm\u0131\u015f gibi ama kriz \u00f6ncesinin, yani 2008 ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finin hala y\u00fczde 1,4 alt\u0131nda. \u00dcstelik her y\u0131l 1 milyon artan n\u00fcfusu analize katarsan\u0131z, i\u00e7 t\u00fcketim pazar\u0131n\u0131n reel olarak artmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ger\u00e7e\u011fi ortada.<\/p>\n<p>Gelelim 2010 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde bir y\u0131l \u00f6ncenin ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemine g\u00f6re milli gelirimiz % 11.7; harcamalar\u0131m\u0131z ise % 23.7 artt\u0131 detay\u0131na. Yani bu y\u0131l, ge\u00e7en y\u0131la g\u00f6re kamu olarak devlet \u00e7ok daha fazla harcama yapm\u0131\u015f.  \u015eimdi bu fark\u0131n nereden kaynakland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 anlatay\u0131m. Bir \u00fclkenin harcamalar toplam\u0131, milli geliri ile cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n toplam\u0131 oldu\u011funa g\u00f6re ve cari a\u00e7\u0131k ta , ba\u015fka milletlerin tasarruf edip t\u00fcketim veya yat\u0131r\u0131m i\u00e7in harcamad\u0131\u011f\u0131 paralar\u0131 kredilendirme ile al\u0131p harcamak demek ise ;H\u00fck\u00fcmetimiz 2010 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde 243 milyar liral\u0131k b\u00fct\u00e7esin  \u00fcst\u00fcne 14 milyar lira da bahsetti\u011fimiz bor\u00e7tan koyarak bu toplam 257 milyar tl&#8217;yi harcam\u0131\u015f. K\u0131saca ge\u00e7en y\u0131l, y\u00fczdesel olarak, milli gelir azalmas\u0131ndan daha fazla harcamalar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 k\u0131sarak durgunlu\u011fa yanl\u0131\u015f tedavi yapm\u0131\u015f\u0131z. \u0130\u015fte size resesyon.Di\u011fer dikkat edilmesi gereken konu ise Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ilk 5 ay\u0131na g\u00f6re ihracat %15.6 artarak 45 milyar dolar seviyesine \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015f ithalat ise.. s\u0131k\u0131 durun.. %36.6 artarak 68 milyar dolar olmu\u015f.Ocak &#8211; may\u0131s d\u00f6nemindeki ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 ge\u00e7en y\u0131la g\u00f6re %115.5 artm\u0131\u015f ge\u00e7en sene ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemde ihracat\u0131n ithalat\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131lama oran\u0131 %79 iken \u015fu an %66.9.<\/p>\n<p>\u0130\u00e7 t\u00fcketimin kriz \u00f6ncesi boyuta \u00e7\u0131kamamas\u0131,sonraki \u00e7eyreklerde i\u00e7 t\u00fcketim daha etkili olamayacaksa, b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilmesinin zor oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc ihracat, AB\u2019deki t\u0131kanma ile daha zor g\u00fcnlere gebe. \u0130\u00e7 t\u00fcketim daha fazla k\u0131m\u0131ldam\u0131yor, ihracat tekliyorsa ve hep stoklamak i\u00e7in \u00fcretim yap\u0131lamayaca\u011f\u0131na g\u00f6re,\u00f6zellikle ikinci yar\u0131da b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin vites d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrece\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.Keza Global durgunlu\u011fun hala devam ediyor olmas\u0131 ve Avrupa Birliginin kemer s\u0131kma politikalar\u0131n\u0131n da ihracattaki  daralmaya destek verece\u011fi unutulmamal\u0131.<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u00d6mer Demir<\/strong><\/p>\n<!-- Error, Advert is not available at this time due to schedule\/geolocation restrictions! -->\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Uyusunda b\u00fcy\u00fcs\u00fcn<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":9192212,"featured_media":30590,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[6745,6199],"tags":[35394,35392,35393,195988,35391,29321,35390,12188,3909,7357,7888,1032,7887],"class_list":["post-31868","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-alisveris","category-ekonomi","tag-dunya-ekonomik-kriz","tag-gsyh","tag-gsyh-nedir","tag-omer-demir","tag-omer-demir-ekonomi-yazisi","tag-omer-demir-kimdir","tag-omer-demir-turkiye-istatistik-kurumu","tag-omer-demir-yazilari","tag-tuik","tag-turkiye-ekonomi","tag-turkiye-ekonomik-kriz","tag-turkiye-istatistik-kurumu","tag-turkiye-kriz"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31868","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/9192212"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=31868"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31868\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/30590"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=31868"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=31868"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=31868"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}