{"id":34811,"date":"2010-08-06T11:08:56","date_gmt":"2010-08-06T09:08:56","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/?p=34811"},"modified":"2022-09-10T17:03:18","modified_gmt":"2022-09-10T14:03:18","slug":"mali-kural-omer-demir-4129683","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/mali-kural-omer-demir-4129683\/","title":{"rendered":"Mali kural"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"<\/a>T\u00fcrkiye son \u00fc\u00e7 ayda d\u0131\u015f piyasalardan ayr\u0131\u015ft\u0131. <\/strong><\/p>\n

B\u00fct\u00e7e ve kamu bor\u00e7 sto\u011funundaki iyile\u015fme, k\u0131saca OVP* denilen orta vadeli program 2011-2012 her ne kadar Ekim ay\u0131na kalm\u0131\u015f olsa bile, bankalar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan rahat bor\u00e7lanabilmesi, T\u00fcrk tahvillerine yo\u011funla\u015fan ilgi vergi bar\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan da olsa \u015firketlerin yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan getirdikleri d\u00f6vizin makroekonomik etkiler \u00fczerindeki olumlu etkisi ile dolar\u0131n gerilemesi, AB\u2019deki stres sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n olumlu yans\u0131mas\u0131, ba\u015fta Moody\u2019s olmak \u00fczere kredi derecelendirme kurulu\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n AB\u2019de en k\u00f6t\u00fc geride kald\u0131 ama ABD\u2019nin bor\u00e7 y\u00fck\u00fcne dikkat \u00e7ekmesi de usd\/tl kurunu a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekmeye yard\u0131mc\u0131 olurken, \u00c7in\u2019in s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma \u00e7abalar\u0131n\u0131n etkisinin azalmaya ba\u015flamas\u0131 Euro\/dolar paritesinin 1,3250\u2019ye kadar \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131na sebep oldu.<\/p>\n

Global \u00e7apta ise B\u00f6lgesel g\u00fc\u00e7 olmaya yolundaki ad\u0131mlar\u0131m\u0131z ki bu da son olarak Suriye, L\u00fcbnan ve \u00dcrd\u00fcn\u2019le yap\u0131lan anla\u015fmalarla beraber \u00fclkemize y\u00f6nelik hem beklentilerimizi g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi hem de arg\u00fcmanlar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131.. Fakat hep akl\u0131m\u0131zda bir tek muamma vard\u0131 o da Siyasi kaynakl\u0131 bir kriz.\u00d6nce H\u00fck\u00fcmetin da\u011f\u0131tt\u0131\u011f\u0131 Anayasa kitap\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 inceleme f\u0131rsat\u0131 bulduk ,tv kanallar\u0131na ,yorumlara da bak\u0131nca \u00f6nce Anayasa profes\u00f6r\u00fc olduk 367\u2019inin \u00f6nemi nedir diye ? parti kapatma nedir,nas\u0131l olur diye ? onu \u00f6\u011frendik, siyasette kim giderse ne olur kim gelirse ne olur yorumlar\u0131\u2026.buna piyasan\u0131n tepkisi ne olur ,bunun ekonomiye etkisi ne olur varsay\u0131mlar\u0131nda bulunduk.\u015eimdi YA\u015e kararlar\u0131ndan ne olursa ne oluru \u00f6\u011freniyoruz.\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczde referendum s\u00fcreci var.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/strong>\u0130lgin\u00e7tir,12 Eyl\u00fcl de yap\u0131lacak referandumun sadece anayasada yap\u0131lmas\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclen de\u011fi\u015fikliklere olumlu veya olumsuz tercihi belirtmeyece\u011fi art\u0131k \u00e7ok a\u00e7\u0131k.Toplumun \u00f6nemli bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fcn yeni anayasa paketideki maddelerin demokratikle\u015fme y\u00f6n\u00fcnde at\u0131lm\u0131\u015f \u00f6nemli bir ad\u0131m oldu\u011fu a\u015fikar fakat toplumdaki anayasa maddeleri okunmadan onlar yapm\u0131\u015flarsa hay\u0131r anlay\u0131\u015f\u0131 da bi o kadar \u00fcz\u00fcnt\u00fc verici. Art\u0131k evet \u00e7\u0131karsa ne olur ? Hay\u0131r \u00e7\u0131karsa ne olur? ne kadar evet \u00e7\u0131karsa ne olur ? ne kadar hay\u0131r \u00e7\u0131karsa ne olur? tahmininde bulunaca\u011f\u0131z.Yani ekonomiyi bir kenara b\u0131rakarak Ramazan\u2019\u0131n verdi\u011fi rehavetle de siyasetin yeniden \u00f6n plana \u00e7\u0131kaca\u011f\u0131 bir s\u00fcrece giri\u015f yapt\u0131k,k\u00f6pr\u00fcden \u00f6nceki son \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f gibi ,d\u00f6n\u00fclmez ak\u015fam\u0131n ufkunday\u0131z \u015fimdi..<\/p>\n

Referandumun sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 \u00fczerine basit bir hesap ile herhangi bir taraf\u0131n y\u00fczde 55\u2019i a\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n zor oldu\u011funu ortaya koyuyor. B\u00fct\u00fcn AKP\u2019lilerin \u2018evet\u2019, CHP\u2019lilerin \u2018hay\u0131r\u2019, MHP\u2019lilerin ise \u00fc\u00e7te iki \u2018hay\u0131r\u2019 \u00fc\u00e7te bir \u2018evet\u2019 diyece\u011fini varsay\u0131m\u0131 ile , ortaya \u2018evet\u2019 lehine 45\u2019e 40 bir da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.Bununla beraber BDP\u2019nin referanduma kat\u0131lmayaca\u011f\u0131 ve boykot karar\u0131 ile onu d\u0131\u015far\u0131da b\u0131rakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda bu referandumda kritik fakt\u00f6r BBP ve \u00f6zellikle Saadet Partisi gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.\u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc e\u011fer bu iki parti, deklare ettikleri \u00fczere ki evet derler gibi geliyor.\u0130\u015fte o zaman aradaki fark 10 puana y\u00fckseliyor ve 55-45 gibi bir sonu\u00e7 garanti edilmi\u015f oluyor.Ama t\u00fcm d\u00fcnyada oldu\u011fu gibi t\u00fcm partililerin ayn\u0131 y\u00f6nde oy kullanmas\u0131n\u0131 olmas\u0131n\u0131 beklemedi\u011fim i\u00e7in burada da \u00fc\u00e7te ikiye \u00fc\u00e7te bir da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m olacak gibi duruyor.Bu durumda sonu\u00e7 kabaca 52-48 olacakt\u0131r diye d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum.Fakat siyaset ip \u00fcst\u00fcnde y\u00fcr\u00fcmek gibidir o y\u00fczden dengeler heran de\u011fi\u015febilir varsay\u0131m\u0131 alt\u0131nda partiler bilinmez nedenlerle karar de\u011fi\u015ftirir veya kongre oyunlar\u0131yla farkl\u0131 y\u00f6nlere s\u00fcr\u00fcklenirlerse marj ,muhtemelen daha da azal\u0131r ve siyasi manip\u00fclasyonun etkili olaca\u011f\u0131 bir s\u00fcrece gireriz.<\/p>\n

S\u00f6z konusu bu manip\u00fcle ise zaten d\u00fc\u015fmek i\u00e7in bahane arayan IMKB \u00fczerinde olumsuz etki yapacak ve do\u011fal olarak volatilitiyi art\u0131racakt\u0131r.Bundan riski sevenler mi yoksa IMKB\u2019deki bu y\u00fckseli\u015f yeter biraz kenarda dinlenelim yada piyasa deyimiyle kar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 realize edelim ve sonra yeniden devreye gireriz diyenler mi kazanacak onu zaman g\u00f6sterecek.<\/p>\n

OVP ile ilgili son s\u00f6z ;Ekim ay\u0131na sarkan ve birle\u015ftirilmi\u015f orta vadeli program ile orta vadeli mali plan\u0131n mali kurala ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclmesi zor g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.Mali kural,\u00fclke y\u00fcksek h\u0131zlarla b\u00fcy\u00fcrken b\u00fct\u00e7e fazlas\u0131 vermeyi ve \u00fclke d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck h\u0131zlarla b\u00fcy\u00fcrken veya k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fcl\u00fcrken de b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 vermeyi gerektiren kurallar b\u00fct\u00fcn\u00fcd\u00fcr.Yani ekonomi k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fcl\u00fcrken T\u00fcrkiye ister istemez b\u00fcy\u00fck b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131klar\u0131 veriyor zaten , mali kural\u0131n bu k\u0131sm\u0131 zaten g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor, mali kural\u0131 kural yapan \u2018\u2019ekonomi y\u00fcksek h\u0131zlarla b\u00fcy\u00fcrken fazla verilmesidir\u2019\u2019prensibinide g\u00f6z ard\u0131 etmemek laz\u0131m ve uygulanabilece\u011fine inanmad\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z bir kural\u0131 sonucun da kredibilite riskini alarak neden yasala\u015ft\u0131rmak isteriz bunuda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmek laz\u0131m .<\/p>\n

\u00d6mer Demir<\/strong><\/p>\nError, group does not exist! Check your syntax! (ID: 51)<\/span>\nError, group does not exist! Check your syntax! (ID: 53)<\/span>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

T\u00fcrkiye son \u00fc\u00e7 ayda d\u0131\u015f piyasalardan ayr\u0131\u015ft\u0131. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":9192212,"featured_media":30590,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[6199,5005,6772,6202],"tags":[38702,195988,38704,29321,35390,12188,38703,806],"class_list":["post-34811","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ekonomi","category-manset","category-ortadogu","category-politika","tag-mali-kural","tag-omer-demir","tag-omer-demir-ekonomi","tag-omer-demir-kimdir","tag-omer-demir-turkiye-istatistik-kurumu","tag-omer-demir-yazilari","tag-omer-demir-yazisi","tag-suriye"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/34811","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/9192212"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=34811"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/34811\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/30590"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=34811"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=34811"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=34811"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}