{"id":37720,"date":"2010-08-30T10:05:49","date_gmt":"2010-08-30T08:05:49","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/?p=37720"},"modified":"2019-03-28T11:08:24","modified_gmt":"2019-03-28T08:08:24","slug":"emre-gollu-sicak-cok-sicak-17452398","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/emre-gollu-sicak-cok-sicak-17452398\/","title":{"rendered":"S\u0131cak, \u00c7ok S\u0131cak"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"<\/a>Ada\u015f\u0131m, de\u011ferli solist Emre Altu\u011f\u2019un \u015fark\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n s\u00f6zlerine atfedercesine bir yaz mevsiminin son demlerini ya\u015f\u0131yoruz. Al\u0131\u015f\u0131lagelmi\u015fin d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda y\u00fcksek hava s\u0131cakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 hepimizi olumsuz etkilerken bir di\u011fer s\u0131cakl\u0131k etkisi de ekonomi piyasalar\u0131 \u00fczerinde s\u0131cak paran\u0131n kendini yeniden g\u00f6stermesiyle ortaya \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/strong><\/p>\n

DPT\u2019nin verilerine g\u00f6re, 2010 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n ilk alt\u0131 ayl\u0131k d\u00f6neminin sonunda cari a\u00e7\u0131k 20,7 milyar USD\u2019ye y\u00fckselmi\u015f. 2010 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n sonu i\u00e7in belirlenen cari a\u00e7\u0131k hedefinin 18 milyar USD oldu\u011funu dikkate al\u0131rsak, daha y\u0131l\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n sonunda bu hedefin % 15 \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131k\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Y\u0131l\u0131n sonunda, cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n 40 milyar USD mertebesine ula\u015fmas\u0131 bekleniyor. S\u00f6zkonusu bu cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n finansman\u0131 ise temeli k\u0131sa d\u00f6nemli ve spek\u00fclatif hareketlere dayanan s\u0131cak para ile ger\u00e7ekle\u015fiyor. Yine DPT\u2019nin verileri, \u00fclkemizdeki s\u0131cak para stokunun geride b\u0131rakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z Haziran ay\u0131n\u0131n sonunda 93 milyar USD mertebesine ula\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ortaya koyuyor ki bu mertebe son \u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131l\u0131n en y\u00fcksek d\u00fczeyini i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n

Cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n finansman\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flayan s\u0131cak para, \u00fclkemize y\u00fcksek faiz – d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kur politikas\u0131n\u0131n uygulanmas\u0131n\u0131n sonucunda giriyor. 14 Nisan 2001 tarihinde, IMF\u2019nin deste\u011fi ile as\u0131l unsuru enflasyonla m\u00fccadeleye odakl\u0131 para politikas\u0131 olan G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc Ekonomiye Ge\u00e7i\u015f Program\u0131 (GEGP) uygulamaya konuldu. GEGP\u2019nin y\u00fcr\u00fcrl\u00fc\u011fe girmesinden sonra ya\u015fanan s\u00fcre\u00e7te, y\u00fcksek faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131n s\u0131cak paray\u0131 adet\u00e2 m\u0131knat\u0131s gibi \u00fclkemize \u00e7ekti\u011fini g\u00f6rd\u00fck. Bu \u015fekildeki s\u0131cak para giri\u015finin sonucunda piyasada d\u00f6viz arz\u0131 artt\u0131 ve buna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak d\u00f6vizin de\u011feri d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc, T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131 ise k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 de\u011ferli duruma geldi. Bu durum, ithalatta \u00f6nemli d\u00fczeyde bir art\u0131\u015fa neden olurken, ithalattaki bu art\u0131\u015f da cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n \u015fiddetle b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi sonucunu getirdi.<\/p>\n

Cari a\u00e7\u0131k, s\u0131cak para giri\u015fi ve d\u0131\u015f bor\u00e7lanma ile finanse edildi\u011finden, bu finansman\u0131n \u00f6zellikle s\u0131cak para giri\u015fiyle s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilmesi i\u00e7in y\u00fcksek faiz \u2013 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kur politikas\u0131na devam ediliyor. Bu politikaya devam edildik\u00e7e s\u0131cak para giri\u015fi de s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla bu \u015fekilde bir k\u0131s\u0131r d\u00f6ng\u00fcn\u00fcn varl\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan bahsetmek m\u00fcmk\u00fcnd\u00fcr. Cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n ve bor\u00e7 stokunun ula\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 boyutun, ekonomideki k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131\u011f\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131p, ekonomiyi krize a\u00e7\u0131k h\u00e2le getirdi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. \u00d6zellikle, \u00fcnl\u00fc ekonomist Prof. Dr. Nouriel Roubini\u2019nin de belirtti\u011fi gibi, bu y\u0131l\u0131n sonunda cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n mill\u00ee gelirin % 4,4\u2019\u00fc oran\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi bekleniyor ve ayr\u0131ca 2011\u2019de de cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n finansman\u0131n\u0131n s\u0131cak para ile ger\u00e7ekle\u015fece\u011fi tahmin ediliyor. AB b\u00f6lgesindeki ekonomik durgunluk dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, buradan ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi olas\u0131 yabanc\u0131 sermaye yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n yeterli d\u00fczeyde olmayaca\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclebiliyor ki bu da cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n s\u0131cak para ile finansman\u0131 tahminini ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

\u00d6zetle, ekonomimiz krizden \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor, iyile\u015fme sinyalleri artt\u0131 derken yaz rehaveti i\u00e7inde g\u00f6zard\u0131 edilmemesi gereken ger\u00e7ekler var ki bunlar ciddi tedbirlerin al\u0131nmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Tatil y\u00f6relerindeki d\u00f6viz kurlar\u0131 bile \u00e7alan birer tehlike \u00e7an\u0131 gibi kan\u0131mca. Enseleri karartmayal\u0131m ama ger\u00e7ekleri de g\u00f6rmezden gelmeyelim, kriz riskinin fark\u0131nda olal\u0131m.<\/p>\n

Emre G\u00f6ll\u00fc<\/strong><\/p>\n

Yazar\u0131n t\u00fcm yaz\u0131lar\u0131na g\u00f6zat \u00bb<\/span><\/a><\/div>\n\nError, group does not exist! Check your syntax! (ID: 102)<\/span>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Emre G\u00f6ll\u00fc: S\u0131cak, \u00c7ok S\u0131cak<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":9192204,"featured_media":35755,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[6199,6748,5005],"tags":[42660,42661,6103,1900,42662,195983,42659,42658,38147,11398,42663,12917],"class_list":["post-37720","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ekonomi","category-is-dunyasi","category-manset","tag-cari-acik-nedir","tag-dpt-verileri","tag-dunya-ekonomisi","tag-emre-altug","tag-emre-altug-sicak-cok-sicak","tag-emre-gollu","tag-emre-gollu-ekonomi","tag-emre-gollu-ekonomi-yazilari","tag-emre-gollu-futbol-yazilari","tag-emre-gollu-yazilari","tag-sicak-cok-sicak","tag-turkiye-ekonomisi"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37720","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/9192204"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=37720"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37720\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/35755"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=37720"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=37720"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=37720"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}