{"id":41202,"date":"2010-10-02T13:34:19","date_gmt":"2010-10-02T11:34:19","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/?p=41202"},"modified":"2019-03-28T11:25:09","modified_gmt":"2019-03-28T08:25:09","slug":"omer-demir-altin-satilir-mibeklenir-mi-14569379","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/omer-demir-altin-satilir-mibeklenir-mi-14569379\/","title":{"rendered":"Alt\u0131n; sat\u0131l\u0131r m\u0131, beklenir mi?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong><a href=\"http:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/09\/omer-demir-enyeni.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignleft size-full wp-image-39021\" title=\"\u00d6mer Demir\" src=\"http:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/09\/omer-demir-enyeni.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"88\" height=\"115\"><\/a>Alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131 tarihi zirvelerini bug\u00fcnlerde zorlamaya devam ediyor.Bug\u00fcn bir ons (31.1 gr) alt\u0131n spot piyasada 1.310 dolar\u0131 a\u015ft\u0131.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Bu fiyatla alt\u0131n y\u0131l ba\u015f\u0131na g\u00f6re  dolar baz\u0131nda % 22 de\u011ferlendi.Asl\u0131nda alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fckseli\u015fine piyasan\u0131n i\u00e7indekiler al\u0131\u015fk\u0131n tam on y\u0131ld\u0131r.\u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc son on y\u0131lda alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131 neredeyse baz ald\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z g\u00fcnden bu yana  be\u015f kattan fazla artt\u0131.Baz ald\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z g\u00fcn ise 11 Eyl\u00fcl 2001.Amerikan halk\u0131 11 Eyl\u00fcl sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n hemen ard\u0131ndan Devletin fi\u015fleme skandallar\u0131n\u0131n etkisiyle korkuyla evlerine kapand\u0131.Bu d\u00fcnyada yeni bir s\u00fcrecin ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 i\u015faret ediyordu.Amerika\u2019da ba\u015flayan bu korku psikolojisi, k\u00fcresel d\u00fcnyada  da etkisini g\u00f6steriyordu \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc art\u0131k hi\u00e7bir yer g\u00fcvenli de\u011fildi.Amerikal\u0131lar\u0131n, ya\u015fad\u0131klar\u0131 bu psikolojik travmay\u0131 ve i\u00e7e kapanmay\u0131 ve biriktirme tutukusunu atlatmas\u0131 i\u00e7in de\u011fi\u015fik \u00e7evrelerden t\u00fcrl\u00fc t\u00fcrl\u00fc fikirler ortaya at\u0131ld\u0131 bir\u00e7ok yollar denendi.Halk\u0131n i\u00e7e kapan\u0131\u015f\u0131 ve Amerika gibi h\u0131zl\u0131 t\u00fcketen bir toplum anlay\u0131\u015f\u0131 i\u00e7in \u00e7ok zor gelebilir \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc T\u00fcrk toplumundan en b\u00fcy\u00fck farklar\u0131 bizim korumac\u0131,bikirtirici yap\u0131m\u0131zla tezat olmas\u0131\u2026Amerkadaki bu g\u00fcven monolo\u011fu  ister istemez Amerikan halk\u0131n\u0131 zor g\u00fcnler i\u00e7in bikirim yapmaya te\u015fvik etti.Ama d\u00fczen, t\u00fcketim \u00fczerine kurulmu\u015ftu ve acilen halk\u0131n psikolojisini de\u011fi\u015ftirmek gerekiyordu halk\u0131n g\u00fcvende oldu\u011funu 11 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019\u00fc ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirenlerin \u00fclkede veya sakland\u0131klar\u0131 her nereyse acilen cezaland\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fi kanaatine var\u0131ld\u0131.Hemen sava\u015f a\u00e7\u0131ld\u0131 ,su\u015flular\u0131 yakalayaca\u011f\u0131z siz harcay\u0131n eski halinize d\u00f6n\u00fcn denildi.Al\u0131\u015fveri\u015f yapmalar\u0131 i\u00e7in te\u015fvikler yap\u0131ld\u0131,psikologlar vakf\u0131 ,halk\u0131 eski haline d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcrmek i\u00e7in medyay\u0131 kulland\u0131,buna \u00fcreticiler ve mal satanlar da destek Verdi.En \u00f6nemli deste\u011fi ise Amekikan Merkez Bankas\u0131 FED verdi.O zamanlar FED ba\u015fkan\u0131 Bernake\u2019nin talimatlar\u0131 ile  FED uzunca bir aradan sonra gev\u015fek para politikas\u0131 izledi.Burada ama\u00e7 Amerikan halk\u0131n\u0131 tekrar para harcayan,t\u00fcketen toplum haline geri d\u00f6nd\u00fcrmekti.Asl\u0131nda \u00e7ok ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 olundu halk harcamaya ba\u015flad\u0131,Geni\u015fleyen para hacmi Amerikan halk\u0131n\u0131 t\u00fcketime te\u015fvik etti ve piyasalar\u0131 canland\u0131rd\u0131 ama enflasyonda art\u0131\u015f beklentilerini de g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi.Art\u0131k b\u00fcy\u00fck fonlar,kurumlar ve fon y\u00f6neticileri kendilerini enflasyona kar\u015f\u0131 korumak i\u00e7in alt\u0131n pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 short pozisyon ile artt\u0131rd\u0131lar Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131 da y\u00fckselmeye ba\u015flad\u0131.Gev\u015fek para politikas\u0131n\u0131 halk o kadar sevdiki,konut ve di\u011fer emlak sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde balonlar ya\u015fanmaya ba\u015flad\u0131.Rakamlar b\u00fcy\u00fcyordu bol s\u0131f\u0131rlar \u00e7o\u011fal\u0131yordu..<\/p>\n<p>Ekonomide att\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131z ad\u0131m\u0131n sonras\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6rmezseniz,g\u00fcn\u00fc kurtarma mant\u0131\u011f\u0131yla mutlaka ac\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 ilerde \u00e7ekersiniz,Ge\u00e7mi\u015fte bizde ya\u015fad\u0131k ,ge\u00e7elik faizlerin y\u00fczde 2000 oldu\u011fu zamanlar\u0131 unutmad\u0131k.Asl\u0131nda o g\u00fcn H\u00fck\u00fcmette olanlar s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131n\u0131n ac\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7ekiyorlard\u0131 ama yinede bir ad\u0131m \u00f6tesini g\u00f6rememi\u015flerdi.Keza 11 Eyl\u00fcl sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan ABD&#8217;nin izledi\u011fi bu gev\u015fek para politikas\u0131 2008 Lehman Brothers ile ba\u015flayan \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015fe zemin haz\u0131rlad\u0131 ve hala ekonomi eski haline d\u00f6nemedi.Emlak piyasas\u0131 ba\u015fta olmak \u00fczere \u015fi\u015fen fiyatlara hala ula\u015f\u0131lamad\u0131.11 Eyl\u00fcl 2001&#8217;de g\u00fcn\u00fc sabah\u0131 Boston&#8217;dan kalkan 11 sefer say\u0131l\u0131 United Airlines&#8217;e ait Boing 767 tipi yolcu u\u00e7a\u011f\u0131 yerel saat ile 08.45&#8217;te New York Manhattan&#8217;daki D\u00fcnya ticaret Merkezi&#8217;nin Kuzey Kulesi olarak adland\u0131r\u0131lan 1 numaral\u0131 kuleye \u00e7arpmadan alt\u0131n\u0131n onsu 272.2 dolar iken bir anda 300\u2019leri ge\u00e7ti,sonra 2.kule ve Pentagon derken  o g\u00fcn alt\u0131n\u0131n onsu 310 dolar\u0131 buldu.11 Eyl\u00fclden sonra alt\u0131n her y\u0131l y\u00fckseldi.G\u00fcn ,g\u00fcn ,ay ay bazen geriledi ama 10 y\u00fckselince sadece  1 d\u00fc\u015febildi.Fakat bir daha 11 Eyl\u00fcl&#8217;deki fiyat\u0131na hi\u00e7 gerilemedi hatta yakla\u015fmad\u0131 bile\u2026Amerikandan gelen son verileri takip edenler bilir ge\u00e7en haftaki FED faiz tutanaklar\u0131n\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klanmas\u0131 ile Amerikan Merkez Bankas\u0131n\u0131n halen s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc bu gev\u015fek para politikas\u0131na devam edece\u011fi  haberi alt\u0131na yeni zirveler yazd\u0131rmas\u0131na yard\u0131mc\u0131 oldu.\u0130\u015fte bugun g\u00f6r\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz 1310 dolar seviyesi alt\u0131n i\u00e7in yeni bir rekor.Ger\u00e7i rakam olarak rekor diyorum \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc art\u0131\u015f rekorunu alt\u0131n daha \u00f6nce zaten yakalad\u0131.\u00d6rne\u011fin, 1970&#8217;li y\u0131llarda alt\u0131n\u0131n onsu 32 dolar dan,3-4 y\u0131lda neredeyse 30 kat artarak 900 dolara kadar y\u00fckselmi\u015fti.11 eyl\u00fclden bug\u00fcne olan art\u0131\u015f 5 kat oldu\u011funu hat\u0131rlat\u0131r\u0131m.\u015eu an d\u00fcnyada Milliyet\u00e7ilik ak\u0131mlar\u0131 ve korumac\u0131 politikalar h\u0131z kazan\u0131yor.Sanki Globalizmin z\u0131tt\u0131.\u00dclkeler de b\u00fcy\u00fcmeden \u00e7ok yeni bir krizle kar\u015f\u0131la\u015fmamak i\u00e7in koruma mant\u0131\u011f\u0131 hakim bu da alt\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fckseli\u015fine destek oluyor.<\/p>\n<p>Uzmanlar alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n s\u00fcrmesini bekliyor.Ama \u00f6nemli bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc pozisyonlar\u0131n yar\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n kar realizasyonu ama\u00e7l\u0131 sat\u0131lmas\u0131 geriye kalan yar\u0131m pozisyonun ise temkinli olarak bekletilmesi y\u00f6n\u00fcnde.Al\u0131m i\u00e7in ise uzun vadede hala riskler mevcut,ger\u00e7i alt\u0131n\u0131n k\u0131sa vadede d\u00fc\u015fmesini bekleyenlerin say\u0131s\u0131 az ama tarihi zirvelerden uzun vadeli bir yat\u0131r\u0131m yapmak \u00e7ok riskli ,unutmamak laz\u0131m.Sadece alt\u0131n al\u0131m yapan fonlardan uzak durmak laz\u0131m \u2026<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u00d6mer Demir<\/strong><\/p>\n<span style=\"font-weight: bold; color: #f00;\">Error, group does not exist! Check your syntax! (ID: 83)<\/span>\n<span style=\"font-weight: bold; color: #f00;\">Error, group does not exist! Check your syntax! (ID: 84)<\/span>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Alt\u0131n;sat\u0131l\u0131r m\u0131, beklenir mi?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":9192212,"featured_media":39021,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5005],"tags":[47262,195946,195988,43335,38704,35391,35390,12188,38703,12917],"class_list":["post-41202","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-manset","tag-altin-yatirimi","tag-ekonomi","tag-omer-demir","tag-omer-demir-aslan-ve-ceylan","tag-omer-demir-ekonomi","tag-omer-demir-ekonomi-yazisi","tag-omer-demir-turkiye-istatistik-kurumu","tag-omer-demir-yazilari","tag-omer-demir-yazisi","tag-turkiye-ekonomisi"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/41202","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/9192212"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=41202"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/41202\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/39021"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=41202"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=41202"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=41202"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}