{"id":49414,"date":"2010-11-29T17:10:35","date_gmt":"2010-11-29T15:10:35","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/?p=49414"},"modified":"2019-03-28T11:25:05","modified_gmt":"2019-03-28T08:25:05","slug":"omer-demir-piigs-irlanda-291110","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/omer-demir-piigs-irlanda-291110\/","title":{"rendered":"PIIGS ve \u0130rlanda"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"<\/a>National Turk yorumcular\u0131ndan ekonomi uzman\u0131 \u00d6mer Demir’in ‘PIIGS ve \u0130rlanda’ ba\u015fl\u0131kl\u0131 son yaz\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 sizlerle payla\u015f\u0131yoruz.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Asl\u0131nda t\u00fcm insanlik tarihi, ayni olaylarin farkl\u0131 zamanlarda ya\u015famas\u0131ndan ba\u015fka bi\u015feye \u015fahit olmuyor . Buna ister \u2018\u2019Tarih tekerr\u00fcrden ibarettir \u2018\u2019deyin yada hep ayn\u0131 nakarat,sonu\u00e7 de\u011fi\u015fmiyor. Para piyasalar\u0131nda bu bayram sonras\u0131 yine ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n kopyas\u0131 denilecek geli\u015fmeler ya\u015fand\u0131, sadece akt\u00f6rler farkl\u0131yd\u0131 sonu\u00e7 yine ayn\u0131. Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l Dubai ve Yunanistan krizi ile sars\u0131lan piyasalar bu y\u0131l \u0130rlanda s\u00fcprizi ile kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya kald\u0131. Yunanistan\u2019\u0131n ge\u00e7irdi\u011fi a\u011f\u0131r ekonomik kriz sonras\u0131 bor\u00e7lanma-CDS fiyatlama aras\u0131nda ba\u011f kurulurken ismi Portekiz ve \u0130spanya ile birlikte riskli \u00fclkeler kategorisinde yeralm\u0131\u015ft\u0131 \u0130rlanda\u2019n\u0131n. Asl\u0131nda \u0130rlanda\u2019n\u0131n i\u00e7inde bulundu\u011fu durum t\u00fcm ekonomi kitaplar\u0131nda bahsedilen temel sebep sonu\u00e7 ilkesine dayan\u0131yor. \u0130rlanda\u2019n\u0131n 2005 y\u0131l\u0131ndan bug\u00fcne i\u00e7 mevduat kadar d\u0131\u015far\u0131dan (sendikasyon ve banka bor\u00e7lanmalar\u0131) finanse edilen hesaps\u0131z kredi geni\u015flemesi ve bu kredi geni\u015flemesinin tamam\u0131na konut ba\u015fta olmak \u00fczere gayrimenkul yat\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na y\u00f6nlendirilmesi ve haliyle gayrimenkul fiyatlar\u0131nda balonlar olu\u015fmas\u0131, sonras\u0131nda Global kriz sonucu bu gayrimenkul balonunun patlamas\u0131yla, banka bilan\u00e7olar\u0131n\u0131n s\u0131f\u0131rlanmas\u0131 ve tabi ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz son Devlet bor\u00e7lanma risk ve dolay\u0131s\u0131yla maliyetlerinin tarihi seviyeleri bulmas\u0131\u2026<\/p>\n

Asl\u0131nda piyasalar bu sonucu \u00f6zellikle PIIGS krizi tabiri (Portekiz,\u0130spanya,\u0130talya,Greece ve Spain) ile AB i\u00e7indeki ba\u015fka bir zay\u0131f halkay\u0131 beklerken , 2006 IMF de\u011ferlendirmerine g\u00f6re iyi bir konumda olan \u0130rlanda\u2019\u0131 g\u00f6zden ka\u00e7m\u0131\u015ft\u0131 tabi. PIIGS tabirinin mucidi ,b\u00f6yle manal\u0131 hale getiren, bu \u00fclkeleri AB i\u00e7inde istemeyen Almanya.Konumuza d\u00f6necek olursak Euro B\u00f6lgesi’ndeki bu yeni tedirginlik sonras\u0131 \u0130rlanda h\u00fck\u00fcmeti bir s\u00fcredir \u00fczerinde \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 tasarruf pl\u00e2n\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Ayr\u0131ca \u0130rlanda Ba\u015fbakan\u0131, AB Kurtarma Fonu olan EFSF\u2019den ve IMF yapaca\u011f\u0131 netle\u015fmeyen yard\u0131m\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fcn 85 milyar Euro dolay\u0131nda olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131n g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc belirtti. Asgari \u00fccreti % 10 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrme karar\u0131 ve kurumlar vergisini art\u0131rma talebi kabul edildi gibi. Ki\u015fi ba\u015f\u0131na d\u00fc\u015fen bor\u00e7 miktar\u0131n\u0131n 500 bin dolar oldu\u011fu s\u00f6ylendi\u011fi \u00fclkede milli gelirinin 11 kat\u0131 kadar d\u0131\u015f bor\u00e7 var yani toplam d\u0131\u015f borcun GSYH\u2019ye oran\u0131 %1.102. Bu geli\u015fmelere ilaveten kredi derecelendirme kurulu\u015fu S&P, \u0130rlanda’n\u0131n uzun vadeli kredi notunu indirdi\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131.<\/p>\n

Muhtemelen al\u0131nacak bu 85 milyar dolar\u0131k yard\u0131m ilk pani\u011fi bitirecektir ama yard\u0131m\u0131n gelmemesi veya istenilen d\u00fczeyde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmemesi \u0130rlanda bankalar\u0131 \u00fczerinde mevduat ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f\u0131na sebep olur ki ard\u0131ndan, Portekiz ve \u0130spanya\u2019ya da bu ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f bula\u015f\u0131r. Bankalardaki bu mevduat ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f\u0131na Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n tepkisiz kalmas\u0131 kabul edilemez muhakkat ama AMB devreye girmesi ve bankalara sonsuz likidite verip ,yap\u0131c\u0131 bir rol almas\u0131 zaten kasas\u0131 PIIGS ad\u0131 verilen bu riskli \u00fclke tahvilleri ve AB \u00fcyesi \u00fclkelerin riskli bankalar\u0131n\u0131n kredileri olarak trilyonlarca Euro risk alm\u0131\u015f durumda iken pek mant\u0131kl\u0131 g\u00f6z\u00fckm\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n

K\u0131saca \u0130rlanda kazas\u0131n\u0131ndan sonra ekonomistler iki tane ders \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131.<\/p>\n

1-Hesaps\u0131z kredi art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n ve \u015fu an T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin de ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131 sermaye giri\u015finin kontrol alt\u0131na al\u0131nmazsa \u00fclkelerin ba\u015f\u0131na neler neler a\u00e7aca\u011f\u0131 ger\u00e7e\u011fi ..<\/p>\n

2- Bir Ekonomi ,Kredi kullanmak zorunda ise kendi para biriminde bor\u00e7lanman\u0131n yolunu bulmak zorundad\u0131r aksi halde,k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck bir f\u0131rt\u0131nada tahvillerine al\u0131c\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kmazsa sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 a\u011f\u0131r oluyor ger\u00e7e\u011fi..<\/p>\n

\u0130\u015fte d\u0131\u015far\u0131da bu geli\u015fmeler ya\u015fan\u0131rken bu olumsuz hava i\u00e7 piyasayada yans\u0131d\u0131. Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l Kurban bayram\u0131 sonras\u0131 uluslararas\u0131 kredi derecelendirme kurulu\u015fu Fitch, T\u00fcrkiye’nin kredi notunu \u00fc\u00e7 kademe y\u00fckseltilmi\u015fti. Tesad\u00fcf bu ya Fitch bu y\u0131lda ,benzer bir karar ald\u0131 ve \u0130rlanda\u2019n\u0131n tedirginli\u011fi ya\u015fan\u0131rken ki buda IMKB \u00fczerinde sat\u0131\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131 olarak kendini g\u00f6stermi\u015fken T\u00fcrkiye’nin g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc pozitife revize etti ve \u0130rlanda\u2019n\u0131n tedirginli\u011fi Kore\u2019de ki tats\u0131zl\u0131klar bir anda yerini iyimserli\u011fe b\u0131rakt\u0131. Bu iyimserlik IMKB \u2018nin y\u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc birka\u00e7 saat i\u00e7inde art\u0131ya \u00e7evirmeye yeti. Dolar\u0131n yukar\u0131 \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f ivmesini de biraz azaltt\u0131 . Ger\u00e7i Dolar kurunun bu seviyesi bizi sanal zengin yapmaya yetiyor ama yap\u0131lan ara\u015ft\u0131rmalar ideal d\u00f6viz kurunun alt\u0131nda oldu\u011fumuz ger\u00e7e\u011finide g\u00f6zler \u00f6n\u00fcne seriyor.<\/p>\n

Son olarak Cline ve Williamson taraf\u0131ndan ve IMF World Economic Outlook Ekim 2010 d\u00f6k\u00fcmanlar\u0131 i\u00e7inde yar alan ve Cline – Williamson \u00f6demeler dengesine parasalc\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131m modellerinden hareket ederek, d\u00f6viz kurundaki temel denge konumunu, hem i\u00e7 hem de d\u0131\u015f dengenin birlikte sa\u011fland\u0131\u011f\u0131 durum olarak tan\u0131mlamaktad\u0131r. Yani d\u00f6viz kurunun temel dengesi kavram\u0131 sadece d\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131n\u0131 de\u011fil, ayn\u0131 zamanda i\u00e7 dengeyi veren \u00fcr\u00fcn-finans ve i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasalar\u0131ndaki dengeyi de yans\u0131tmal\u0131d\u0131r diyor . Bu \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmaya g\u00f6re T\u00fcrk liras\u0131n\u0131n temel denge de\u011feri 1.65 olmal\u0131d\u0131r. Yani T\u00fcrk liras\u0131 Ekim fiyatlar\u0131yla %16.20 daha de\u011ferli. Elbette T\u00fcrkiye sadece d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck d\u00f6viz kuru ya\u015fayan tek \u00fclke de\u011fil. Kriz sonras\u0131 Geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkelere ya\u011fan sermaye giri\u015fi sonras\u0131 herkes bu soruyu soruyor .<\/p>\n

\u0130deal Kur ne olmal\u0131 diye? Bu konuyu ge\u00e7mi\u015f yaz\u0131lar\u0131mda zaten uzun uzad\u0131ya anlatm\u0131\u015ft\u0131m. IMF World Economic Outlook Ekim 2010 \u2018da kurunu %25.5 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr tavsiyesi alan Yeni Zelanda\u2019y\u0131 , %19.2 ile G\u00fcney Africa ve %17.5 Avustralya izliyor. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019yi \u00c7ek Cumhuriyeti ve %9.5 ile Polonya izliyor. Milli paray\u0131 neden mi deval\u00fcve etmeye ihtiya\u00e7 var ? \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc D\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kurun sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 sanal refah seviyesi, ger\u00e7eklerin g\u00f6r\u00fclmesini \u00f6nleyerek gereksiz balonlar olu\u015fmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7\u0131yor bunlar i\u00e7inde GSMH\u2019 da var. Bu yanl\u0131\u015f kur \u00e7izgisi ,T\u00fcrkiye ve di\u011fer geli\u015fmekte olan ekonomilerini bekleyen as\u0131l ve en \u00f6nemli tehlikedir.<\/p>\n

Son s\u00f6z olarak bir \u0130rlanda atas\u00f6z\u00fc payla\u015fmak isterim \u2018\u2019never put off tomorrow what you can do today\u2019\u2019yani bug\u00fcn\u00fcn i\u015fini yar\u0131na b\u0131rakma!!<\/p>\n

\u00d6mer Demir<\/strong><\/p>\nError, group does not exist! Check your syntax! (ID: 51)<\/span>\nError, group does not exist! Check your syntax! (ID: 53)<\/span>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

NationalTurk yorumcular\u0131ndan ekonomi uzman\u0131 \u00d6mer Demir’in ‘PIIGS ve \u0130rlanda’ ba\u015fl\u0131kl\u0131 son yaz\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 sizlerle payla\u015f\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":9192212,"featured_media":49418,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[6199,5005],"tags":[55465,55464,8212,5011,10061,195988,38704,12188,55466,55467],"class_list":["post-49414","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ekonomi","category-manset","tag-cline","tag-ekonomist-omer-demir","tag-imkb","tag-irlanda","tag-nationalturk","tag-omer-demir","tag-omer-demir-ekonomi","tag-omer-demir-yazilari","tag-williamson","tag-world-economic-outlook"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49414","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/9192212"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49414"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49414\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/49418"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49414"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49414"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49414"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}