{"id":51354,"date":"2010-12-14T14:09:55","date_gmt":"2010-12-14T12:09:55","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/?p=51354"},"modified":"2019-03-28T11:25:03","modified_gmt":"2019-03-28T08:25:03","slug":"yil-biterken-ekonomi-141210","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/yil-biterken-ekonomi-141210\/","title":{"rendered":"Y\u0131l Biterken Ekonomi"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"<\/a>National Turk yorumcular\u0131ndan ekonomi uzman\u0131 \u00d6mer Demir\u2019in “Y\u0131l Biterken Ekonomi” adl\u0131 yaz\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 sizlerle payla\u015f\u0131yoruz;<\/strong><\/p>\n

Y\u0131l biterken genellikle o y\u0131l\u0131n muhasebesini yaparken bulurum kendimi. Biraz h\u00fcz\u00fcnl\u00fc olsada eski y\u0131la veda etmek, asl\u0131nda ara hesap \u00f6demek i\u00e7in iyidir y\u0131l sonlar\u0131. Bug\u00fcn sizlerle \u00fclkemiz ve d\u00fcnya ekonomilerini ilgilendiren k\u0131sm\u0131 ile bakal\u0131m bitmekte olan y\u0131la. 2010 y\u0131l\u0131 T\u00fcrkiye ve d\u00fcnya ekonomileri i\u00e7in bir \u00e7ok konuda milat oldu denebilir. 2008 Lehman Brohter\u2019s ile ba\u015flayan ve etkileri hala devam eden k\u00fcresel kriz ad\u0131ndan s\u0131k\u00e7a s\u00f6z ettirdi bu y\u0131lda. Her ne kadar genel olarak krizde T\u00fcrkiye az etkilenen \u00fclkelerden biri olsada b\u00fcy\u00fcme rakamlar\u0131ndaki yava\u015flama ile milli gelirimizdeki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, cari a\u00e7\u0131k ve i\u015fsizlik hala \u00fclkemiz i\u00e7in ciddi sorun te\u015fgil etmekte .O y\u00fczden duygular\u0131mzdan ar\u0131nal\u0131m pembe g\u00f6zl\u00fckleri \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131p ve rakamlar\u0131n o ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i y\u00fcz\u00fc ile kar\u015f\u0131la\u015fal\u0131m.
\n
\n\u0130\u015fsizlik<\/strong><\/p>\n

Kriz \u00f6ncesi % 10 , 2009 y\u0131l\u0131nda ise % 14.0\u2019e y\u00fckselen i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131n\u0131n, bu senenin ortalamas\u0131nda %12 olmas\u0131 bekleniyor ve i\u015fsizlik hala \u00fclkemizin bir numaral\u0131 sorunu. Buna kar\u015f\u0131n, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki y\u0131l b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131ndaki yava\u015flama ile birlikte, istihdam piyasas\u0131ndaki iyile\u015fmenin de yava\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 neredeyse t\u00fcm ekonomi \u00e7evrelerinin ortak g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc N\u00fcfus art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n % 1.5 gibi y\u00fcksek bir seviyede olmas\u0131 ve tar\u0131mdan di\u011fer sekt\u00f6rlere istihdam kaymas\u0131 ya\u015fanmas\u0131 sebebiyle \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki y\u0131l % 4.5\u2019lik b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131 ile i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131n\u0131n en fazla y\u00fczde 11.8 seviyesine gerilemesi bekleniyor. Unutulmamas\u0131 gereken kural para politikas\u0131, \u00fcretimi sadece k\u0131sa vadeli etkiler. Biliyoruz ki, bug\u00fcnlerde uygulanan ekonomi politikas\u0131, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kur, y\u00fcksek faizi baz almaktad\u0131r, yani para politikas\u0131n\u0131 baz al\u0131yor. Yeni d\u00fczenlemelerle \u00fclkemizde ki giri\u015fimci eksi\u011fi giderilmeli. Destekler artt\u0131r\u0131lmal\u0131 .<\/p>\n

S\u0131cak para<\/strong><\/p>\n

Bu y\u0131l ad\u0131ndan s\u0131k s\u0131k s\u00f6z ettiren s\u0131cak para problemi\/nimeti \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki y\u0131l da \u00e7ok konu\u015fulacak . Kas\u0131m 2009-Eyl\u00fcl 2010 aras\u0131nda ekonomimize 38 milyar dolarl\u0131k yabanc\u0131 sermaye girmi\u015f olmas\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme ivmesini canland\u0131ran ana etken oldu. D\u00fcnyada s\u0131cak paran\u0131n \u00fclkemize geli\u015f sebebi faizlerin hala y\u00fcksek olmas\u0131ndan kaynaklan\u0131yor, \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc faiz\/enflasyon oran\u0131 hala y\u00fcksek, ama yabanc\u0131lar i\u00e7in .Yerli yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar i\u00e7in bir\u015fey de\u011fi\u015fmiyor \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc yerli yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131n\u0131n faiz getirisi ile enflasyon oran\u0131 aras\u0131nda \u00e7ok ciddi bir kazan\u00e7 yok. \u0130\u015fte bu y\u00fczden g\u00fcndemdeki Tobin vergisine destek vermek gerekiyor yoksa i\u00e7eriye giren s\u0131cak para ba\u015f a\u011fr\u0131t\u0131r. Yabanc\u0131 sermaye giri\u015flerinin y\u00fczde 86\u2019s\u0131 s\u0131cak paradan ve b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00e7o\u011funlu\u011fuyla d\u0131\u015f bor\u00e7 yaratan t\u00fcrlerden olu\u015fmaktad\u0131r. Brezilya\u2019n\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7ekti\u011fi \u201cs\u0131cak para giri\u015flerini k\u0131s\u0131tlama\u201d formul\u00fcne T\u00fcrkiye s\u0131cak bakm\u0131yor \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc \u00e7ok y\u00fcksek d\u00fczeyli cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n finansman\u0131 hemen hemen tamamen bu s\u0131cak para ile kar\u015f\u0131lanmaktad\u0131r. Bu kayna\u011f\u0131n t\u0131kanmas\u0131, durgunla\u015fma, daralma anlam\u0131na gelecektir aman dikkat.<\/p>\n

Cari denge<\/strong><\/p>\n

Bu senenin y\u00fcksek b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131n\u0131n en \u00f6nemli yans\u0131mas\u0131, cari dengedeki art\u0131\u015f ile oldu. Bu sene sonunda milli has\u0131laya oranla % 5.9\u2019a \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 beklenen cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki sene b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131 kaybetmesi ile milli has\u0131lan\u0131n % 5.8\u2019si seviyesinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi bekleniyor .Rakamlarla konu\u015facak olursak bu senenin 44.9 mlr dolar olarak tahmin edilen milli gelir , \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki sene 50.5 mlr dolar seviyesine y\u00fckselecektir. Bu sene sonunda 44.9 milyar dolar olarak GSYH\u2019ya oranla % 5.9 tahmin edilen cari a\u00e7\u0131k, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki sene 50.5 milyar dolar seviyesine GSYH\u2019ya oranla % 5.8 y\u00fckselecektir. Tabi bu geli\u015fmeler abs\u00fcrt bir de\u011fi\u015fim ya\u015fanmamas\u0131 durumunda ge\u00e7erli, malum se\u00e7imler sonucu \u015fa\u015f\u0131rt\u0131c\u0131 bir sonu\u00e7 \u00e7\u0131karsa t\u00fcm dengeler de\u011fi\u015febilir. \u015eayet her\u015fey Orta Vadeli Program\u2019da planland\u0131\u011f\u0131 gibi olur ve mali \u00e7er\u00e7eveye sad\u0131k kal\u0131n\u0131rsa T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin kredi notu bir kademe daha y\u00fckselerek, yat\u0131r\u0131m yap\u0131labilir \u00fclkeler kategorisine girer ki bu da k\u0131sa ve orta vadede cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n finansman\u0131 konusunda rahatlama sa\u011flar ..<\/p>\n

Faiz<\/strong><\/p>\n

Y\u0131l sonu yakla\u015f\u0131rken TCMB Ba\u015fkan Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 Erdem Ba\u015f\u00e7\u0131’n\u0131n yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 TCMB’nin politika faizinin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmeyi ve e\u015f zamanl\u0131 olarak zorunlu kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k oranlar\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rmay\u0131 ciddi \u015fekilde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmekte oldu\u011funu a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a bildirmesi k\u0131sa vadede, k\u0131sa vadeli getirilerde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe ve zay\u0131f bir TL’ye yol a\u00e7abilir, ancak uzun vadeli perspektiften bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda politika faizinin indirilmesinin, i\u00e7 talebin h\u0131zla b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc \u015fu d\u00f6nemde \u00e7ok riskli olabilece\u011fi a\u015fikar. Bu y\u0131l sonuna kadar g\u00f6sterge ka\u011f\u0131d\u0131n bile\u015fik faizi y\u00fczde 6 lar ile tarihi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelere gerilemesi i\u00e7 talebi dizginleyecekmi hep birlikte g\u00f6rece\u011fiz. TCMB\u2019nin 2011 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n sonlar\u0131ndan \u00f6nce faiz artt\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na girmeyece\u011fini fikrinde ortak bir karar var gibi. 2011 Y\u0131l\u0131 boyunca en fazla 100 puanl\u0131k bir artt\u0131r\u0131m bekleniyor.<\/p>\n

Enflasyon <\/strong><\/p>\n

2011 y\u0131l\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcmedeki yava\u015flama senaryosu ile enflasyona y\u00f6nelik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn de olumlu olaca\u011f\u0131 tahmin ediliyor.\u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc son iki ayd\u0131r \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon % 2.5 gibi tarihi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelerde.Enflasyon cephesinde y\u00f6n hala a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 ,nereye kadar bilinmez ama 2011 yl\u0131 sonunda T\u00dcFE\u2019nin % 6 lar seviyesine ula\u015fmas\u0131 \u015fa\u015f\u0131rt\u0131c\u0131 olamasa gerek .<\/p>\n

Sonu\u00e7 olarak bu senenin bekleneneden h\u0131zl\u0131 bir ivme ile b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi sonras\u0131 2011 i\u00e7in umutlu bekleyi\u015f devam ediyor. Genel se\u00e7imlerde AKP\u2019nin tek ba\u015f\u0131na yine iktidar olaca\u011f\u0131 varsay\u0131m\u0131 alt\u0131nda olumlu gidi\u015fat s\u00fcrecek gibi . S\u00f6zlerimi \u00fcnl\u00fc iktisat\u00e7\u0131 John Maynard Keynes\u2019in \u00e7ok sevdi\u011fim s\u00f6zlerinden iki tanesi ile bitirmek istiyorum \u2018If conditions change, I change my opinion, what do you do?\u2019 yani \u2018\u2019\u015eartlar de\u011fi\u015firse ben fikrimi de\u011fi\u015ftiririm, ya siz ne yapars\u0131n\u0131z?\u2019\u2019 ..\u0130kincisi ise \u2018In the long run we are all dead \u2018 yani \u2018\u2019uzun vadede hepimiz \u00f6lece\u011fiz\u2019\u2019..Mutlu y\u0131llar…<\/p>\n

\u00d6mer Demir<\/strong><\/p>\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

National Turk yorumcular\u0131ndan ekonomi uzman\u0131 \u00d6mer Demir\u2019in “Y\u0131l Biterken Ekonomi” adl\u0131 yaz\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 sizlerle payla\u015f\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":9192212,"featured_media":51366,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[6199,5005],"tags":[56635,195946,8190,56634,12657,5508,195988,56636,56632,56633],"class_list":["post-51354","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ekonomi","category-manset","tag-cari-denge","tag-ekonomi","tag-enflasyon","tag-faiz","tag-issizlik","tag-national-turk","tag-omer-demir","tag-sicak-para","tag-yil-biterken-ekonomi","tag-yilbasi"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/51354","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/9192212"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=51354"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/51354\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/51366"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=51354"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=51354"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=51354"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}