{"id":55947,"date":"2011-01-13T11:02:14","date_gmt":"2011-01-13T09:02:14","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/?p=55947"},"modified":"2022-09-11T15:40:13","modified_gmt":"2022-09-11T12:40:13","slug":"yeni-umut-dunya-borsalari-ekonomi-haberleri-1301","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/yeni-umut-dunya-borsalari-ekonomi-haberleri-1301\/","title":{"rendered":"Yeni Umut \/ D\u00fcnya Borsalar\u0131, Ekonomi Haberleri"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"<\/a>D\u00fcnya borsalar\u0131ndaki sat\u0131\u015f dalgas\u0131 beklenenden daha kolay atlat\u0131ld\u0131. Ba\u015fta \u00c7in\u2019den gelen daralt\u0131c\u0131 para politikas\u0131 i\u015faretleri ile faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131, ba\u015fl\u0131yor \/ D\u00fcnya Borsalar\u0131, Ekonomi Haberleri<\/h1>\n

\u0130\u015fte Ekonomi ,\u00a0 Borsa uzman\u0131 Natioanal Turk Yorumcusu \u00d6mer Demir’in konu ile ilgili g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fleri;<\/p>\n

Yeni Umut<\/strong><\/p>\n

2010 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n son aylar\u0131nda D\u00fcnya borsalar\u0131ndaki sat\u0131\u015f dalgas\u0131 beklenenden daha kolay atlat\u0131ld\u0131. Ba\u015fta \u00c7in\u2019den gelen daralt\u0131c\u0131 para politikas\u0131 i\u015faretleri ile faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131, sonra \u00c7in\u2019i takip ederek Euro b\u00f6lgesindeki kredi krizinin \u0130rlanda\u2019n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan Portekiz ile \u0130spanya\u2019ya yay\u0131labilece\u011fi endi\u015fesine ra\u011fmen k\u00fcresel piyasalar 2011 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n bu ilk ay\u0131na y\u00fckseli\u015fle ba\u015flad\u0131. Almanlar\u0131n PIIGS k\u0131saltmas\u0131 ile domuzlar lakab\u0131n\u0131 yak\u0131\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 Euro \u00fclkelerinden Portekiz,\u0130rlanda,\u0130spanya,Yunanistan, \u0130talya\u2019n\u0131n s\u0131radaki en zay\u0131f halkas\u0131 olan Portekiz tahvilleri hafta ba\u015f\u0131nda \u00e7\u00f6p seviyesine indi.<\/p>\n

D\u00fcnya Borsalar\u0131ndaki bu iyimserli\u011fin mikro cephesinde \u00c7in\u2019in \u0130spanya tahvili alaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 vaat etmesi ve gizliden tahvil al\u0131m\u0131 yapan Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n AMB\u2019n\u0131n bu durumdan yararlanmas\u0131 oldu.\u0130yimserli\u011fin makro taraf\u0131nda ise yine k\u00fcresel piyasalarda dola\u015fan bol likitenin etkisi g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor ve bu bol likitide piyasalara barda\u011f\u0131n dolu taraf\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.\u0130yimserli\u011fin di\u011fer makroekonomik taraf\u0131 ise D\u00fcnya ekonomisindeki beklenenden h\u0131zl\u0131 gelen b\u00fcy\u00fcme rakamlar\u0131.\u0130\u015fte bu fakt\u00f6rler y\u0131l\u0131n bu ilk ay\u0131 ,borsalar\u0131 co\u015fturan etkenler.<\/p>\n

Asl\u0131nda k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z kazanmaya,\u00a0 genele yay\u0131lmaya ba\u015flad\u0131. ABD ,\u00a0 Japonya ekonomilerinde son a\u00e7\u0131klanan veriler b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin h\u0131z kazand\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Almanya,Fransa, Hollanda gibi \u00fclkelerde a\u00e7\u0131klanan verilerin beklentilerden iyi gelmesi Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n \u00e7ift dipli bir durgunlu\u011fa girmeyece\u011finin g\u00f6stergesi. Lehman Brothers krizi ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00fcnden bu yana tart\u0131\u015f\u0131lan yeni bir kriz gelirmi korkusunu \u015fimdilik piyasalar unuttu gibi.<\/p>\n

Geni\u015fleyici Para Politikalar\u0131<\/h2>\n

\u00c7in ile Hindistan\u2019\u0131n \u00f6nderli\u011finde geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkeler k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin trendini pozitif tutumaya yetiyor. Birde t\u00fcm D\u00fcnya ‘da h\u00fck\u00fcm s\u00fcren \u2018\u2019geni\u015fleyici para politikalar\u0131 \u2018\u2019piyasalar\u0131n k\u00f6t\u00fc haberlere kar\u015f\u0131 daha diren\u00e7li olmas\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011fl\u0131yor. G3 \u00fclkelerinden ABD, Avrupa ve Japonya\u2019n\u0131n geni\u015fleyici para politikas\u0131 D\u00fcnya Borsalar\u0131nda ve Ekonomisinde 2011 – 2012 y\u0131llar\u0131nda da devam etmesi kesin gibi. Ger\u00e7i geni\u015fletici para politikas\u0131n\u0131n bol likitide ortam\u0131nda alt\u0131n ba\u015fta olmak \u00fczere di\u011fer emtialar\u0131 ,hisse senetlerini ve borsa endekslerini ve gayrimenkul fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 \u015fi\u015firdi\u011fi ger\u00e7e\u011fi bile bu politikadan vazge\u00e7ilmesine yetmiyor. Geni\u015fletici para politikas\u0131n\u0131n di\u011fer bir etkisi olan tasarruf oranlar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fckseli\u015fide \u00fclkeleri zor durumda b\u0131rakan ba\u015fka bir y\u00f6n\u00fc.<\/p>\n

D\u00fcnya ekonomilerin en b\u00fcy\u00fck dezavantajlar\u0131ndan biri olan h\u0131zl\u0131 para hareketleri !<\/h2>\n

Globalle\u015fen d\u00fcnya ekonomilerin en b\u00fcy\u00fck dezavantajlar\u0131ndan biri olan h\u0131zl\u0131 para hareketleri ve \u00fclkemiz i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli bir sonucu olan sermaye giri\u015finin artmas\u0131 T\u00fcrkiye gibi i\u00e7 talebe ve d\u0131\u015f kayna\u011fa dayal\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme modeli olan \u00fclkeler i\u00e7in iyi y\u00f6netilmesi gereken bir s\u00fcre\u00e7. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi son on y\u0131lda D\u00fcnya Ekonomisinde OECD \u00fclkeleri i\u00e7inde en h\u0131zl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcyen \u00fclkelerden birisi oldu.<\/p>\n

Bu s\u00fcre\u00e7 \u00f6nce kamu kesiminin a\u00e7\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n azalt\u0131lmas\u0131, \u00fclkemiz i\u00e7in neredeyse kaderi haline gelmi\u015f kronik enflasyonun kontrol alt\u0131na al\u0131nmas\u0131, yap\u0131sal reformlar\u0131n ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirilmesi, siyasi \u00e7alkant\u0131lardan \u00e7ok etkilenen piyasalara g\u00fcven vererek reel faizlerin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fclmesini, yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n artmas\u0131n\u0131 ve bu reformlar sonucu b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin h\u0131zlanmas\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flad\u0131.<\/p>\n

Belkide her\u015fey yolunda gidecekti e\u011fer krizler d\u00fcnyan\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131na dert olmasayd\u0131. Tasarruf oran\u0131n\u0131n neredeyse yar\u0131 yar\u0131ya azald\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir ortamda d\u0131\u015f tasarruflar ile ba\u015far\u0131ld\u0131 bu b\u00fcy\u00fcme. Ama d\u0131\u015f tasarruf oran\u0131n art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ba\u015fka bir sorunu getirdi.\u0130\u015fte cari a\u00e7\u0131k b\u00f6yle ba\u015flad\u0131. Y\u0131llard\u0131r muhalif ekonomistlerin bas bas ba\u011f\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 konu olan cari a\u00e7\u0131k konusuna ,ekonomi y\u00f6netimide kanaat getirdi ve son d\u00f6nemde cari dengedeki bozulmay\u0131 kontrol alt\u0131na almak ve \u00f6demeler dengesinin finansman\u0131n\u0131n kalitesini art\u0131rmak i\u00e7in kollar\u0131 s\u0131vad\u0131.<\/p>\n

2011 y\u0131l\u0131 para, kur politikas\u0131 ve Durmu\u015f Y\u0131lmaz ba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131ndaki Merkez Bankas\u0131 toplant\u0131s\u0131ndaki a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131<\/h3>\n

Durmu\u015f Y\u0131lmaz ba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131ndaki Merkez Bankas\u0131 toplant\u0131s\u0131ndaki a\u00e7\u0131klamalarda 2011 y\u0131l\u0131 para kur politikas\u0131 ile fiyat istikrar\u0131n\u0131n yan\u0131 s\u0131ra\u2019\u2019finansal istikrar\u0131n \u2018\u2019da hedeflenece\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. 2010 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n Aral\u0131k ay\u0131ndaki son PPK ( Para Politikas\u0131 Kurulu) toplant\u0131s\u0131nda T\u00fcrk liras\u0131ndaki de\u011ferlenme e\u011filimini kontrol alt\u0131na almak maksad\u0131yla bir yandan k\u0131sa vadeli faizleri a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekerken di\u011fer yandan k\u0131sa d\u00f6nemli faizlerin politika faizlerinden \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde sapmas\u0131na izin verilece\u011finin sinyalini verdi. PPK ( Para Politikas\u0131 Kurulu) toplant\u0131lar\u0131nda son olarak BDDK \u00fczerinden bankalara kredi verme s\u00fczgecini daraltmalar\u0131n\u0131 ve munzam kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131klardaki art\u0131\u015f ile de vade uzat\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 te\u015fvik ederek finansal istikrara katk\u0131da bulunmay\u0131 hedefledi. Ger\u00e7i Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n munzam kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k oranlar\u0131n\u0131n daha fazla art\u0131rmas\u0131 bekleniyor ama bankalar\u0131n ay\u0131rd\u0131klar\u0131 bu pay\u0131n halk \u00fczerinde bor\u00e7lanmay\u0131 pozitif y\u00f6nde etkileyece\u011fi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnm\u00fcyorum.<\/p>\n

IMKB ile IMF aras\u0131nda anla\u015fma olacak m\u0131?<\/h4>\n

Ge\u00e7en y\u0131la damgas\u0131n\u0131 vuran hatta IMKB \u2018Y\u0130 bile 8 ay yukar\u0131ya ta\u015f\u0131maya yeten IMF ile anla\u015fma olacak m\u0131 ?olmayacak m\u0131 ? spek\u00fclasyonu biliyorsunuz anla\u015fma olmadan tatl\u0131ya ba\u011flanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Piyasalarda yeni bir umut kayna\u011f\u0131na ihtiya\u00e7 duymu\u015f olmal\u0131 ki se\u00e7imlere kadar borsay\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131yacak umut kayna\u011f\u0131 da rengini g\u00f6sterdi. Not artt\u0131r\u0131m beklentisi. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin olas\u0131 not art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentisi, b\u00fct\u00e7e performans\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc olmas\u0131 ve geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclke bor\u00e7 fonlar\u0131na para giri\u015fi orta – uzun vadeli tahvil faizlerinin enflasyondaki olas\u0131 bir y\u00fckseli\u015fi fiyatlamamas\u0131na neden oluyor. Bu y\u00fczden \u00f6zellikle IMKB \u2019de para yat\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 yaparken yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131 piyasalar\u0131 da g\u00f6z ard\u0131 etmemek laz\u0131m \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc IMKB dolar kuru baz\u0131nda performans\u0131 pek i\u00e7 a\u00e7\u0131c\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcnm\u00fcyor. Di\u011fer borsalar ile aram\u0131zdaki fark neredeyse kapand\u0131. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nemlerde di\u011fer piyasalara paralel hareket edece\u011fimizi s\u00f6ylemek yan\u0131lt\u0131c\u0131 olmayacakt\u0131r. Son olarak IMKB 30 endeksi ve di\u011fer \u00fc\u00e7 borsan\u0131n dolar baz\u0131nda performanslar\u0131na bakal\u0131m.<\/p>\n

Herkese bol kazan\u00e7l\u0131 g\u00fcnler dilerim .<\/p>\n

\u00d6mer Demir<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

D\u00fcnya borsalar\u0131ndaki sat\u0131\u015f dalgas\u0131 kolay atlat\u0131ld\u0131. Daralt\u0131c\u0131 para politikas\u0131 i\u015faretleri ile faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131, ba\u015fl\u0131yor \/ D\u00fcnya Borsalar\u0131, Ekonomi Haberleri<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":9192212,"featured_media":49421,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[6199,5005,220816],"tags":[37026,59412,59408,59409,195937,59410,59411,6103,45420,14595,8212,59415,59414,863,10463,59406,59416,59407],"class_list":["post-55947","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ekonomi","category-manset","category-uzak-dogu","tag-37026","tag-2011-yili-para-kur-politikasi","tag-bol","tag-buyume","tag-dunya","tag-dunya-borsalari","tag-dunya-borsalari-ekonomisi","tag-dunya-ekonomisi","tag-durmus-yilmaz","tag-imf","tag-imkb","tag-imkb-30-endeksi","tag-imkb-dolar-kuru-bazinda","tag-japonya","tag-merkez-bankasi","tag-para","tag-para-politikasi-kurulu","tag-politikasi"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/55947","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/9192212"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=55947"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/55947\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/49421"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=55947"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=55947"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=55947"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}