{"id":60991,"date":"2011-02-21T14:57:35","date_gmt":"2011-02-21T12:57:35","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/?p=60991"},"modified":"2019-03-28T11:24:51","modified_gmt":"2019-03-28T08:24:51","slug":"turkiye-ekonomisi-2011","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/turkiye-ekonomisi-2011\/","title":{"rendered":"T\u00fcrkiye Ekonomisi 2011"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"<\/a>NationalT\u00fcrk yorumcular\u0131m\u0131zdan Ekonomi ve Borsa uzman\u0131 \u00d6mer Demir ‘in bu haftaki “T\u00fcrkiye Ekonomisi 2011” ba\u015fl\u0131kl\u0131 makalesini yay\u0131nl\u0131yoruz.<\/h1>\n

T\u00fcrkiye Ekonomisi 2011<\/h2>\n

\u015eubat 2001 krizinden bu g\u00fcne tam on y\u0131l ge\u00e7ti. On y\u0131l \u00f6nce bug\u00fcn ,siyasi s\u00fcrt\u00fc\u015fmelerle ba\u015flayan kriz \u00fclkeyi alt \u00fcst ediyordu. Sebepleri hala tart\u0131\u015fma konusu olan ama temelde d\u00f6viz k\u0131tl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve kamu borcunun y\u00fcksekli\u011fi ile \u00fclkedeki siyasal yap\u0131 bozuklu\u011funa ba\u011fl\u0131 siyasi gerginliklerin zirve yapmas\u0131 gibi nedenlere ba\u011fland\u0131.<\/p>\n

Tarih tekerr\u00fcrden ibaret derler o y\u00fczden gelin o d\u00f6nemi tekrar hat\u0131rlayal\u0131m ve o g\u00fcnden bu g\u00fcne T\u00fcrkiye Ekonomisi \u2019nde neler de\u011fi\u015fmi\u015f beraber inceleyelim.<\/p>\n

T\u00fcrkiye Ekonomisi ‘nde neler oldu?<\/h3>\n

2000 Ocak ay\u0131nda h\u00fck\u00fcmet ile IMF aras\u0131nda ki anla\u015fma neticesinde uygulamaya konulan Ekonomik program, Kas\u0131m ay\u0131nda, bankalararas\u0131 piyasadaki gecelik bor\u00e7lanma faizinin ortalama %110.8\u2019e, en y\u00fcksek %210\u2019a f\u0131rlamas\u0131 ile derin bir yara ald\u0131. Kamu bankalar\u0131n\u0131n mevduat m\u00fc\u015fterilerine sundu\u011fu \u2018\u2019kim ne verirse biz daha fazlas\u0131n\u0131 veririz\u2019\u2019 yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131 \u00fclkeyi faiz u\u00e7urumuna do\u011fru g\u00f6t\u00fcr\u00fcr hale gelmi\u015fti. Faizde volatilite y\u00fckselmesi ile gelen art\u0131\u015f, finansal piyasalarda bir bask\u0131 ve gerginlik oldu\u011fu anlam\u0131na geliyordu ve 22 Kas\u0131mdaki kriz \u00f6yle bir g\u00fcnde patlamam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. 22 Kas\u0131m\u2019dan sonraki g\u00fcnlerde TCMB\u2019nin d\u00f6viz rezervinde de \u00f6nemli bir azalma oldu.<\/p>\n

T\u00fcrkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankas\u0131 , 17\u201324 Kas\u0131m haftas\u0131nda yakla\u015f\u0131k 3 milyar dolar, 24 Kas\u0131m-1 Aral\u0131k haftas\u0131nda da 2.5 milyar dolar olmak \u00fczere d\u00f6viz rezervinin 5.5 milyar dolar\u0131n\u0131 kaybetti. 15 g\u00fcnl\u00fck bu periyotta TCMB d\u00f6viz rezervi 24.4 milyar dolardan 18.9 milyar dolara indi. B\u00f6ylece enflasyonu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrme program\u0131n\u0131n net d\u00f6viz rezervi \u00fczerine koydu\u011fu alt s\u0131n\u0131r g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015f oluyordu.<\/p>\n

Enflasyon canavar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 son mermiler de t\u00fckenir hale gelmi\u015f ve sonraki benzer d\u00f6viz sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 Hazine ,savunmas\u0131z durumda kalm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Eurobond piyasalar\u0131nda T\u00fcrkiye tahvillerinin ,DIBS (Devlet \u0130\u00e7 Bor\u00e7lanma Senetleri) fiyat\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015fme-faizindeki y\u00fckselme belli bir noktaya var\u0131nca yabanc\u0131larda sat\u0131\u015fa borsada ba\u015flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. 2000 y\u0131l\u0131nda kamu fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 da bir \u00e7\u0131pa olarak kullanmak amac\u0131yla kamu zamlar\u0131 yap\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\n

Kamu kesimi enflasyonunun 2000 ba\u015f\u0131ndan itibaren %2 dolay\u0131nda kalaca\u011f\u0131 varsay\u0131m\u0131 etraf\u0131nda iken, sadece 2000 Ocak ay\u0131nda kamu enflasyonunun baz\u0131 sektorlerde %30\u2019u a\u015fmas\u0131 zamlar\u0131 geri ald\u0131rsada g\u00fcven duygusunu kaybettirdi . O y\u0131l, programda a\u00e7\u0131klanan programda a\u00e7\u0131klanan enflasyon GSMH\u2019n\u0131n %1.5-2\u2019si yani, 3-4 milyar dolar de\u011fil 9.8 milyar dolar olmu\u015ftu. Giderek b\u00fcy\u00fcyen cari a\u00e7\u0131k i\u00e7in ila\u00e7 olan \u2018\u2019 d\u0131\u015f kaynak\u2019\u2019 ta g\u00fcven sorunundan dolay\u0131 uzak ihtimaldi. Yine o y\u0131l, Cari A\u00e7\u0131k \/ D\u00f6viz Rezervi ve Cari A\u00e7\u0131k \/ GSYIH oranlar\u0131 h\u0131zl\u0131 ve s\u00fcrekli y\u00fckselmi\u015f , Aral\u0131k ay\u0131nda ise %50\u2019ye \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/p>\n

Bankalar Haziran 2000 sonuna kadar TCMB\u2019ye % 8 munzam kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k yat\u0131rmak zorunda iken ,kas\u0131m sonras\u0131 munzam kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k oran\u0131 % 100\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lm\u0131\u015f ama Bankalar yasaya ra\u011fmen buna uymam\u0131\u015f\u2018\u2019A\u00e7\u0131k pozisyon \u2018\u2019oran\u0131n\u0131 olmas\u0131 gereken y\u00fczde yirmilik dilimin 10 kat\u0131na y\u00fczde 205 seviyelerine getirmi\u015flerdir.Bankalar\u0131n mazeret olarak sunduklar\u0131 d\u00f6viz bor\u00e7lar\u0131 riskini ,d\u00f6viz forward kontratlar\u0131yla kar\u015f\u0131lad\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6ylemeleri de yerli kurumlar ile \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131 sebebiyle kur riski ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6stermi\u015ftir. Kas\u0131m krizi a\u015f\u0131ld\u0131 derken, \u00fc\u00e7 ay sonra 19 \u015eubat 2001\u2019de Ba\u015fbakan ile Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki bir tart\u0131\u015fma ikinci bir spek\u00fclatif sald\u0131r\u0131y\u0131 ba\u015flatm\u0131\u015f ve bu kez d\u00f6viz krizi ba\u015flam\u0131\u015f oldu.<\/p>\n

21 \u015eubat\u2019ta bankalararas\u0131 para piyasas\u0131nda gecelik faiz %6200\u2019e kadar \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 ve ortalama %4018.6 oldu.20 \u015eubat\u2019ta, o tarihe kadar ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmi\u015f en b\u00fcy\u00fck Hazine ihalesi planland\u0131.Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar 5.5 milyar dolar tutar\u0131ndaki bu ihalede, Ba\u015fbakan-Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 gerginli\u011finden dolay\u0131 borcu yenilemediler ve TL\u2019den ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f ba\u015flad\u0131. Paralar\u0131n\u0131 borsadan \u00e7ekerek borsan\u0131n kara \u00e7ar\u015fambas\u0131na imza atan yabanc\u0131lar , MB\u2019den dolar al\u0131p \u00e7\u0131kmak istediler ama Merkez Bankas\u0131 talebi kar\u015f\u0131layamad\u0131 ve o malum sonu\u00e7.<\/p>\n

Gelelim Bug\u00fcne ; T\u00fcrkiye Ekonomisi 2011<\/h3>\n

\u2018\u2019Bir musibet bin nasihattan iyidir\u2019\u2019 derler ya T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin de ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131 aynen \u00f6yle oldu. 2001\u2019de ya\u015fananlara kar\u015f\u0131 al\u0131nan tedbirlerin de etkisiyle ge\u00e7en 10 y\u0131lda 4.5 kat b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi ba\u015fararak bug\u00fcn 1.1 trilyon liral\u0131k bir ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011fe ula\u015ft\u0131 ve d\u00fcnyan\u0131n 26\u2019nc\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck ekonomisi iken ,10 basamak y\u00fckselerek d\u00fcnyan\u0131n 16\u2019nc\u0131, Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n ise 6\u2019nc\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck ekonomisi oldu.<\/p>\n

Sosyal g\u00fcvenlik reformu, \u00f6zelle\u015ftirme birliklerle ilgili yap\u0131sal d\u00fczenlemeler, kamu bankalar\u0131n\u0131n k\u00e2rl\u0131l\u0131k ve riskli krediler a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan sorunsuz hale getirilmesi ile b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 kontro alt\u0131na ald\u0131. Bankalar \u00fczerinde s\u0131k\u0131 politikalar ile bugun d\u00fcnyan\u0131n en sa\u011flam bankac\u0131l\u0131k sistemi kuruldu.En b\u00fcy\u00fck ba\u015far\u0131 bana g\u00f6re enflasyonla ; Kronikle\u015fen \u00e7ift hatta \u00fc\u00e7 haneli rakamlardan tek haneli say\u0131lara ge\u00e7mek b\u00fcy\u00fck ba\u015far\u0131;\u015f\u00f6yleki ;2001\u2032de \u00dcretici Fiyat Endeksi (\u00dcFE) y\u00fczde 88,6, T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi (T\u00dcFE) y\u00fczde 68,5 iken , 2010 ile birlikte bu oranlar 7,5\u2032lere kadar geriledi. Gayri safi yurt i\u00e7i h\u00e2s\u0131las\u0131 2001\u2032de 196,7 milyar dolar iken, son verilere g\u00f6re 730 milyar dolar seviyesinde, 2001 krizinde T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi 5,7 oran\u0131nda k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fcl\u00fcrken, 2008 global krizin etkisine ra\u011fmen 2010 \u2018da T\u00fcrkiye y\u00fczde 6,8 b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc.<\/p>\n

\u0130hracat rakamlar\u0131 ise bu on y\u0131lda yine g\u00fcld\u00fcrd\u00fc. 2001 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131 31 milyon 334 bin dolarl\u0131k ihracatla kapatan T\u00fcrkiye , 2010\u2032da ise bu rakam\u0131 113 milyon 900 bin dolara kadar y\u00fckseltti. \u0130hracat\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131n, Cumhuriyet\u2019in 100. y\u0131ld\u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fc olan 2023 hedefi olan 500 milyar dolarl\u0131k rakam\u0131 ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirmelerini umuyorum. Son on y\u0131lda T\u00fcrkiye; Ki\u015fi ba\u015f\u0131na d\u00fc\u015fen milli gelirini 3000 dolar seviyelerinden bug\u00fcn 10.000 dolar\u2019a, \u0130MF\u2019e olan borcunu 20 milyar dolardan 5.5 milyar dolara d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin ihracat\u0131 ge\u00e7en 10 y\u0131lda yakla\u015f\u0131k 4 kat, d\u00f6viz rezervleri 4 kat,toplam ara\u00e7 sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 3 kat artt\u0131. Sosyal alanda ise yeniliklere ba\u011fl\u0131 geli\u015fmeler olmu\u015f .Cep telefonu ,internet kullan\u0131m\u0131 havayolu ula\u015f\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n ciddi derecede ilerlemesi belki teknolojik fakt\u00f6rlere ba\u011flansa da, Do\u011falgaz kullan\u0131m\u0131 2 ye katlam\u0131\u015f.Toplam demiryolu uzunlu\u011fu y\u00fczde 10 artsada, b\u00f6l\u00fcnm\u00fc\u015f karayolu oran\u0131 3 kat artm\u0131\u015f.<\/p>\n

Peki dersler al\u0131nd\u0131 m\u0131?<\/h4>\n

1- 2001\u2018de e\u011fer para d\u0131\u015far\u0131ya \u00e7\u0131karsa bunu getirmenin yolu ;faizleri y\u00fckseltmektir diye d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcrken 2011\u2019de biliyoruz ki y\u00fckselen faiz ile gelen para kontroll\u00fc al\u0131nmazsa \u2018\u2019s\u0131cak para\u2019\u2019 el yakar o y\u00fczden \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 kalmas\u0131ndan daha hay\u0131rl\u0131d\u0131r. Yani kontrols\u00fcz g\u00fc\u00e7 g\u00fc\u00e7 de\u011fildir .<\/p>\n

2- 2001 \u2018de siyasiler piyasalar\u0131n hassasiyetini alg\u0131lay\u0131p davran\u0131\u015flar\u0131na dikkat etselerdi kriz ortaya \u00e7\u0131kmayacakt\u0131. 2011\u2019de siyasilerin davran\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 tutum ve ruh halleri piyasalar\u0131 neredeyse hi\u00e7 etkilemiyor.<\/p>\n

3- 2001 krizi ,d\u00f6viz rezervlerinin b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnden \u00e7ok daha \u00f6nemli olan, borcun yeniden d\u00f6nd\u00fcr\u00fclmesi oldu\u011funu g\u00f6sterdi. Bug\u00fcn ihalelere gelen ilgi gayet iyi hatta d\u00fcnyadan ayr\u0131\u015ft\u0131k diyebiliriz. Para \u00e7evirme oran\u0131 ise y\u00fczde 82 .<\/p>\n

4- \u0130\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 8.2 lerden ,y\u00fczde 12 lere ilerlemi\u015f,acil \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm getirilmesi gereken bir konu.<\/p>\n

5- Son olarak Cari a\u00e7\u0131k konusuna de\u011finmek gerekiyor .\u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc ge\u00e7mi\u015fle k\u0131yaslama yap\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda tek korku fakt\u00f6r\u00fcm\u00fcz bu. \u00dclkece tasarruf d\u00fczeyimiz son derece d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck ,bu cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 azd\u0131ran bir neden, ikinci olarak ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcme arts\u0131n tamamda, cari a\u00e7\u0131ktaki art\u0131\u015f\u0131da g\u00f6z ard\u0131 etmemek gerek ,\u00fclkeye giren s\u0131cak para asl\u0131nda hemen hemen e\u015fit oranda Merkez Bankas\u0131 rezervlerini art\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in s\u0131cak paradan korkmam\u0131za gerek yok. Fakat uzun d\u00f6nemde daha sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 finansman ve daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir bir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm i\u00e7in finansman\u0131n do\u011frudan yat\u0131r\u0131mlar kanal\u0131yla yap\u0131lmas\u0131 gerekiyor.<\/p>\n

Herkese bol kazan\u00e7l\u0131 g\u00fcnler dilerim.<\/p>\n

\u00d6mer Demir<\/h4>\nError, group does not exist! Check your syntax! (ID: 51)<\/span>\nError, group does not exist! Check your syntax! (ID: 53)<\/span>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

T\u00fcrkiye Ekonomisi 2011. NationalT\u00fcrk yorumcular\u0131m\u0131zdan Ekonomi ve Borsa uzman\u0131 \u00d6mer Demir ‘in bu haftaki “T\u00fcrkiye Ekonomisi 2011” ba\u015fl\u0131kl\u0131 makalesini yay\u0131nl\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":9192212,"featured_media":60994,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[6199,5005],"tags":[63169,63168,14595,63170,8193,12917,63165,63164,63166,63167],"class_list":["post-60991","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ekonomi","category-manset","tag-2001-krizi","tag-basbakan-cumhurbaskani-gerginligi","tag-imf","tag-merkez-bankasi-rezervleri","tag-tuketici-fiyat-endeksi","tag-turkiye-ekonomisi","tag-turkiye-ekonomisi-2010","tag-turkiye-ekonomisi-2011","tag-turkiye-ekonomisi-2011-neler-oldu","tag-turkiye-ekonomisinde-neler-oldu"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/60991","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/9192212"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=60991"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/60991\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/60994"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=60991"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=60991"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=60991"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}