{"id":61781,"date":"2011-03-03T08:00:12","date_gmt":"2011-03-03T06:00:12","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/?p=61781"},"modified":"2019-03-28T11:24:50","modified_gmt":"2019-03-28T08:24:50","slug":"petrol-kaos-17486","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/petrol-kaos-17486\/","title":{"rendered":"Petrol ve Kaos"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"<\/a>Petrol ve Kaos…\u00a0NationalTurk yorumcusu ve Ekonomi uzman\u0131 \u00d6mer Demir’in bu haftaki yaz\u0131s\u0131;<\/h1>\n

Tunuslu marul sat\u0131c\u0131s\u0131 gencin tezgah\u0131na el konulmas\u0131 ve\u00a0 kendini ate\u015fe vermesi ,Orta Do\u011fuda pek \u00e7ok\u00a0 isyan\u0131 tetikleyerek emtia fiyatlar\u0131na yeni zirveleri g\u00f6stermeye yetti. Ortado\u011fu belirsizli\u011finin petrol,alt\u0131n ve di\u011fer emtia fiyatlar\u0131nda neden oldu\u011fu ani y\u00fckseli\u015fin ekonomik ve finansal dengeler \u00fczerindeki olumsuz etkisi devam ediyor.<\/p>\n

Korku ve risk endeksi olan VIX endeksi (volatility index) y\u00fcksek seviyelerde dola\u015fmaya devam ediyor. G\u00f6zler 2009 y\u0131l\u0131na g\u00f6re % 29 oran\u0131nda y\u00fckselen alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131na \u00e7evrildi. 1365 dolardan i\u015flem g\u00f6ren alt\u0131n\/ons fiyat\u0131n\u0131n ortado\u011fu haberleri ile 1433 dolarlar\u0131 g\u00f6rmesi ak\u0131llara yeni y\u00fckseli\u015flerin habercisi mi sorusunu getiriyor. Sadece alt\u0131n de\u011fil petrolde de benzer fiyat hareketleri ya\u015fanmakta ;ge\u00e7en hafta \u201cg\u0131da enflasyonu\u201d konu ba\u015fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ile toplanan G-20 toplant\u0131s\u0131nda da ,petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n ,y\u00fckselen enflasyon oranlar\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rmas\u0131n\u0131n ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz oldu\u011fu\u00a0 ve toparlanma \u00e7abalar\u0131nda olan global ekonomiye dair ikinci dip ihtimalini sorular\u0131 konu\u015fuldu.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>\u00d6rne\u011fin Japon Nomura Bank analizinde; Libya ve Cezayir\u2019in \u00fcretimini k\u0131sma ihtimaline kar\u015f\u0131 BRENT\u00a0 petrol\u00fcn varilinin\u00a0 220 dolar\u0131 ge\u00e7ebilece\u011fi ihtimali oldu\u011funu a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 bile m\u00fcmk\u00fcn,\u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc bugun BRENT petrol %4.18 prim yaparak 116.64 seviyelerinde. Bu arada \u0130SKO\u00c7YA teslimatl\u0131 BRENT ham petrol\u00fc ile , ABD Teksas ham petrol\u00fc olarak bilinen NYMEX petrol\u00fc aras\u0131ndaki fark\u0131n belkide tarihinde bu kadar a\u00e7\u0131k olmas\u0131 spek\u00fclat\u00f6r hareketlerin etkisi. Libya\u2019da \u00e7\u0131kan i\u00e7 sava\u015f\u0131n ard\u0131ndan petrol \u00fcretimini yar\u0131 yar\u0131ya azaltmas\u0131,Cezair\u2019in de benzer bir hamleye yeltenece\u011fi haberide piyasalar\u0131 gerginle\u015ftirmeye yeti. Hafta boyu gerginlik haberlerine kulak kabartan piyasalar, olumlu haberlere neredeyse kulak t\u0131kad\u0131. Ama hafta sonuna do\u011fru Avrupa\u2019da g\u00fcven endeksleri ve ABD\u2019de haftal\u0131k i\u015fsizlik rakam\u0131 gibi ekonomik g\u00f6stergelerden gelen olumlu sinyaller ile, Kaddafi\u2019nin a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 beklentiler ve Suudi Arabistan\u2019\u0131n petrol arz\u0131na destek olaca\u011f\u0131na dair a\u00e7\u0131klamalar borsalar\u0131n kay\u0131plar\u0131 azalmaya ve petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n ate\u015fini s\u00f6nd\u00fcrmeye yetmese de , bak\u0131r gibi ekonomik aktiviteye daha duyarl\u0131 emtialarda fiyatlar\u0131n gerilemesine\u00a0 sebep oldu.<\/p>\n

D\u00fcnya\u2019da bu geli\u015fmeler s\u00fcrerken ,ortado\u011fu gerginli\u011fi ile diken \u00fcst\u00fcnde duran IMKB, D\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 ile kan kaybetmeye devam etti. 2011 Ocak ay\u0131 D\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 beklenti 4.7 milyar dolar iken Ocak\u00b4ta 7.3 milyar dolar olarak piyasalar\u0131n moralini bozdu. Ocak 2011 \u00b4de ihracat y\u00fczde 22.1 b\u00fcy\u00fcsede,\u0130thalat\u00a0 y\u0131ll\u0131k y\u00fczde 44.3 artarak rekor k\u0131rd\u0131.<\/p>\n

Veri TCMB\u00b4nin ithalat talebini azaltma \u00e7abalar\u0131n\u0131n i\u015fe yaramad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ederken ,\u0130thalat vergisi verilerine dayanarak ithalatta d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ya\u015fanmas\u0131n\u0131 bekleyen TCMB\u00b4nin de hayalleri bo\u015fa \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. \u0130hracat ayl\u0131k % 4.2 daral\u0131rken ithalat %9.7 artt\u0131 ve d\u0131\u015f ticaret verisinin y\u00fckselmesine sebep oldu. Ocak ay\u0131 ticaret verileri artan petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n etkisini yans\u0131tmamas\u0131na ra\u011fmen bu seviyerde olu\u015fu , Ortado\u011fu etkilerinin g\u00f6r\u00fclece\u011fi \u015eubat ay\u0131nda daha k\u00f6t\u00fcs\u00fc beklentilerini sat\u0131n almaya ba\u015flad\u0131. Enerji ithalat\u0131n\u0131n y\u0131ll\u0131k % 31 artt\u0131\u015f\u0131, \u00f6nceki alt\u0131 ayda da ortalama y\u00fczde 28 enerji ithali a\u00e7\u0131\u011fa \u00f6nemli etken. Ge\u00e7en hafta a\u00e7\u0131klanan di\u011fer \u00f6nemli bir veri ise 2010 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u015fsizlik oranlar\u0131 idi. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin 2010 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 y\u00fczde 2.1 azalarak\u00a0 % 11.9 olarak a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131. T\u00fcrkiye genelinde i\u015fsiz say\u0131s\u0131 bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131la gore 425 bin ki\u015fi azalarak 3 milyon 46 bin ki\u015fiye d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc.\u00a0 2010 y\u0131l\u0131nda istihdam edilenlerin say\u0131s\u0131, bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131la g\u00f6re 1 milyon 317 bin ki\u015fi artarak, 22 milyon 594 bin ki\u015fiye ula\u015ft\u0131. 2010 y\u0131l\u0131nda istihdam edilenlerin % 25,2\u00b4si tar\u0131m, % 19,9\u00b4u sanayi, % 6,3\u00b4\u00fc in\u015faat, % 48,6\u00b4s\u0131 ise hizmetler sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde.<\/p>\n

Son d\u0131\u015f ticaret verisi TCMB\u00b4nin ithalat talebini azaltma \u00f6nlemlerinin etkilerini tam olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclmedi\u011fi i\u00e7in ele\u015ftirmek yersiz olacakt\u0131r.Ama\u00a0 Ocak verisi ve petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki trendin yukar\u0131 olmas\u0131 sebebiyle risk olu\u015fturmaya devam ediyor.<\/p>\n

\u00d6mer Demir<\/h5>\nError, group does not exist! Check your syntax! (ID: 81)<\/span>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Petrol ve Kaos… NationalTurk yorumcusu ve Ekonomi uzman\u0131 \u00d6mer Demir’in bu haftaki yaz\u0131s\u0131;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":9192212,"featured_media":61783,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[6199,6155,5005],"tags":[63833,63831,26505,27829,63832,4788,63834,40951,63835],"class_list":["post-61781","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ekonomi","category-gundem","category-manset","tag-japon-nomura-bank","tag-kaos","tag-orta-dogu","tag-petrol","tag-petrol-ve-kaos","tag-suudi-arabistan","tag-suudi-arabistan-petrol","tag-tcmb","tag-tunus-ekonomi"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/61781","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/9192212"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=61781"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/61781\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/61783"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=61781"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=61781"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=61781"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}