{"id":62679,"date":"2011-03-14T11:30:25","date_gmt":"2011-03-14T09:30:25","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/?p=62679"},"modified":"2019-03-28T11:24:48","modified_gmt":"2019-03-28T08:24:48","slug":"secim-oncesi-ekonomi-62679","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/secim-oncesi-ekonomi-62679\/","title":{"rendered":"Se\u00e7im \u00d6ncesi Ekonomi"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"<\/a>NationalT\u00fcrk yorumcular\u0131m\u0131zdan Ekonomi ve Borsa uzman\u0131 \u00d6mer Demir \u2018in bu hafta kaleme ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 ” Se\u00e7im \u00d6ncesi Ekonomi ” adl\u0131 yaz\u0131y\u0131 sizlerle payla\u015f\u0131yoruz;<\/h1>\n

Se\u00e7im \u00d6ncesi Ekonomi<\/h2>\n

Haftalard\u0131r devam eden Ortado\u011fu’daki karga\u015fan\u0131n yeni halkas\u0131 olmaya aday Suudi Arabistan\u2019da cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc \u015eii muhaliflerin b\u00fcy\u00fck bir eyleme haz\u0131rland\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair haberler gelmi\u015f ve g\u00f6zler hafta boyu d\u00fcnyan\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck petrol \u00fcreticisi Suudi Arabistan\u2019a \u00e7evrilmi\u015fti. Tabir yerinde ise orta direk halk\u0131n neredeyse bulunmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ,milli gelirin; a\u015firet \u00fcyelerine 250 bin dolar ,fakir halka ise sadece 1000 dolar d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fc \u00fclkede, zengin-fakir aras\u0131ndaki u\u00e7urumun her ge\u00e7en g\u00fcn art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ile yolsuzluk s\u00f6ylentileri ba\u015fkald\u0131r\u0131\u015f\u0131 tetikleyen sebeplerdi. Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc haber ajanslar\u0131na d\u00fc\u015fen Suudi polisinin g\u00f6stericilere ate\u015f a\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair haberler ve hafta sonu b\u00fcy\u00fck g\u00f6steride daha b\u00fcy\u00fck eylemler olaca\u011f\u0131na dair spek\u00fclasyonlar, IMKB ve ABD borsalar\u0131nda %1,8\u2019leri bulan \u015fok d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015flere neden oldu.<\/p>\n

H\u00fck\u00fcmetin Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc, \u0130slam dininde her t\u00fcrl\u00fc g\u00f6steri, y\u00fcr\u00fcy\u00fc\u015f, protesto ve bunlara davetlere olan yasa\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7eren kararname’yi yinelemesi ve bunlar\u0131n “islam \u015feriat\u0131n\u0131n prensiplerine ve Suudi toplumunun \u00e2detlerine ters oldu\u011funu i\u00e7eren fetva yay\u0131nlatmas\u0131, sokakta g\u00f6steri yapman\u0131n yasak oldu\u011fu \u00fclkede, korku yaratmas\u0131na yettti. Buna birde h\u00fck\u00fcmetin \u00e7evre \u00fclkelerdeki ba\u015fkald\u0131r\u0131\u015flar\u0131 g\u00f6rerek durumun ciddiyetine varmas\u0131 ve Kaddafi \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm\u00fcne benzer bir strateji ile para musluklar\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7mas\u0131 (memur maa\u015f art\u0131\u015f\u0131, toplu konut vaadleri, emeklilik, e\u011fitim gibi alanlardaki yard\u0131mlar ) i\u015fe yaram\u0131\u015f olacak ki Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc beklenen b\u00fcy\u00fck protestonun olu\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 engeleyerek piyasalar\u0131 rahatmaya yetti.<\/p>\n

\u0130MKB`de ise ge\u00e7en hafta genel olarak al\u0131c\u0131l\u0131 bir seyir vard\u0131. Orta Do\u011fu`da olaylar\u0131n olu\u015fturdu\u011fu y\u00fcksek petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n ,uluslararas\u0131 kredi derecelendirme kurulu\u015fu Moody`s in T\u00fcrkiye`ye y\u00f6nelik sert not art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n zor oldu\u011funa dair s\u00f6ylemleri piyasalar\u0131n moralini bozsada ,Rekabet Kurulu`nun Akbank T.A.\u015e.,Denizbank A.\u015e., Finans Bank A.\u015e., T\u00fcrkiye Garanti Bankas\u0131 A.\u015e., T\u00fcrkiye Halk Bankas\u0131 A.\u015e., T\u00fcrkiye \u0130\u015f Bankas\u0131 A.\u015e., T\u00fcrkiye Vak\u0131flar Bankas\u0131 T.A.O. ve Yap\u0131 Kredi Bankas\u0131 A.\u015e\u2019nin ,maa\u015f \u00f6demeleri i\u015flemi ba\u015fta olmak \u00fczere 2005 y\u0131l\u0131ndan itibaren, 2009 y\u0131l\u0131na kadar \u00f6zel firmalara promosyon verilmemesi, protokol\u00fc devam eden kurum ve \u00f6zel firmalara di\u011fer bankalar taraf\u0131ndan teklif verilmemesi konular\u0131nda anla\u015fma yapmak suretiyle, 4054 say\u0131l\u0131 Kanunun 4. maddesi kapsam\u0131nda rekabeti ihlal ettikleri gerek\u00e7esiyle a\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131 davan\u0131n ,ge\u00e7en hafta banka y\u00f6neticilerinin bu soru\u015fturman\u0131n T\u00fcrk bankac\u0131l\u0131k sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde ciddi krizler ya\u015fanaca\u011f\u0131na dair a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131n\u0131n asl\u0131nda \u00e7okta ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n anla\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131 ile trendi yukar\u0131ya itmeye yetti.<\/p>\n

Yabanc\u0131lar\u0131n son d\u00f6rt ayda \u0130\u015f Bankas\u0131 C hisselerinde 539.5, Garanti Bankas\u0131\u2019nda 503, Yap\u0131 Kredi Bankas\u0131\u2019nda 198.6, Bank Asya\u2019da 188, Halk Bankas\u0131\u2019nda 186, Vak\u0131fbank\u2019ta ise 111 milyon dolarl\u0131k net sat\u0131\u015f ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirmi\u015f olmas\u0131, soru\u015fturman\u0131n ilerleyi\u015finin belli olu\u015fu ile bu h\u0131zl\u0131 sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n kesilmesine neden olmu\u015f gibi. Haftaya 61112 seviyesinde ba\u015flayan, endeks ,Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc 63781 puan seviyesinde, haftal\u0131k bazda %4.37 oran\u0131nda de\u011fer art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ile tamamlad\u0131. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki hafta ise g\u00f6zler Amerikan Merkez Bankas\u0131 FED`in 15 Mart Sal\u0131 g\u00fcnk\u00fc toplant\u0131s\u0131nda olacak, g\u00f6sterge faizlerde bir de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fe gitmeyece\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fler \u00f6n planda ama bundan \u00f6nemlisi enflasyonist kayg\u0131lar\u0131n yeniden artmaya ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir d\u00f6nemde FED`in \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6neme dair para politikas\u0131 konusunda verece\u011fi ipu\u00e7lar\u0131 ve k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck sat\u0131rba\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 piyasalar takip edecek.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>Yakla\u015fan Se\u00e7imler ve \u0130MKB<\/h3>\n

Merkez Bankas\u0131 Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Durmu\u015f Y\u0131lmaz\u2019\u0131n ge\u00e7en hafta sonu yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamada s\u0131cak para ile m\u00fccadele kapsam\u0131nda olu\u015fturulan strateji ile \u00fclkeden \u00e7\u0131kan paran\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fcn tekrar geri geldi\u011fini s\u00f6ylemesi, ge\u00e7en ay IMKB\u2019de 2.6 milyar dolarl\u0131k sat\u0131\u015f yapan yabanc\u0131lar\u0131n,se\u00e7im \u00f6ncesinde ortalama %25 y\u00fckselen borsaya tekrar girdiklerinin g\u00f6stergesi. Genellikle her se\u00e7im arefesinde borsan\u0131n y\u00fckseldi\u011fi dikkate al\u0131n\u0131rsa yakla\u015fan se\u00e7imlerde de benzer hareketin ya\u015fanmas\u0131 pek s\u00fcpriz olmayacakt\u0131r. \u0130MKB\u2019nin 2002 Kas\u0131m se\u00e7imleri arafesinde %15, 2007 Temmuz se\u00e7imleri arafesinde %35, 2009 Mart se\u00e7imlerinde %18 y\u00fckseldi\u011fi ve son olarak 12 Eyl\u00fcl halk oylamas\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde ise y\u00fczde 36 y\u00fckseldi\u011fi ger\u00e7e\u011fide g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131n\u0131rsa bu se\u00e7imler \u00f6ncesi de benzer bir hareket ya\u015fanabilece\u011fi ihtimalini kuvvetlendiriyor. Se\u00e7imlere \u00fc\u00e7 ay gibi bir s\u00fcrenin kalm\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131 TCMB\u2019nin elinde s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131na devam etmek i\u00e7in bir \u00e7ok silah\u0131n\u0131n var olu\u015fu politika faizlerinde art\u0131r\u0131ma gidilmesini imkans\u0131zla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor. Buna birde g\u00f6rev s\u00fcresinin dolmas\u0131na az bir zaman kalan Ba\u015fkan Durmu\u015f Y\u0131lmaz fakt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fc eklenince politika faizlerinin art\u0131\u015f zaman\u0131n\u0131n y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 kestirmek zor de\u011fil.<\/p>\n

Sonu\u00e7 olarak ; TCMB\u2019nin halihaz\u0131rda uygulamakta oldu\u011fu faiz politikas\u0131na devam edece\u011fini ve k\u0131sa vadede faizleri artt\u0131rmayaca\u011f\u0131 23 Mart\u2019taki PPK toplant\u0131s\u0131nda da munzam kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131klarla ilgili u\u00e7uk bir de\u011fi\u015fim gelmeyece\u011fi varsay\u0131m\u0131 alt\u0131nda , bono ve tahvil piyasas\u0131nda halihaz\u0131rda olan fiyatlardan al\u0131nacak pozisyonlar\u0131n zarar ettirmeyece\u011fi kanaatindeyim.<\/p>\n

Herkese bol kazan\u00e7l\u0131 g\u00fcnler dilerim<\/p>\n

\u00d6mer Demir<\/h4>\nError, group does not exist! Check your syntax! (ID: 72)<\/span>\nError, group does not exist! Check your syntax! (ID: 71)<\/span>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Se\u00e7im \u00d6ncesi Ekonomi. NationalT\u00fcrk yorumcular\u0131m\u0131zdan Ekonomi ve Borsa uzman\u0131 \u00d6mer Demir \u2018in bu hafta kaleme ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 ” Se\u00e7im \u00d6ncesi Ekonomi ” adl\u0131 yaz\u0131y\u0131 sizlerle payla\u015f\u0131yoruz<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":9192212,"featured_media":62680,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[6199,5005],"tags":[8212,64648,4788,40951],"class_list":["post-62679","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ekonomi","category-manset","tag-imkb","tag-secim-ekonomi","tag-suudi-arabistan","tag-tcmb"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/62679","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/9192212"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=62679"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/62679\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/62680"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=62679"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=62679"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=62679"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}