{"id":64523,"date":"2011-04-05T08:31:05","date_gmt":"2011-04-05T06:31:05","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/?p=64523"},"modified":"2022-09-11T15:39:56","modified_gmt":"2022-09-11T12:39:56","slug":"para-64523","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/para-64523\/","title":{"rendered":"Para Asla Uyumaz"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"<\/a>NationalT\u00fcrk yorumcular\u0131m\u0131zdan Ekonomi ve Borsa uzman\u0131 \u00d6mer Demir \u2018in “Para Asla Uyumaz” adl\u0131 yaz\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 payla\u015f\u0131yoruz;<\/h1>\n

Ge\u00e7en hafta ile y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011fi geride kal\u0131rken Japonya\u2019daki radyoaktif s\u0131z\u0131nt\u0131n\u0131n boyutlar\u0131na ait kayg\u0131lara ili\u015fkin geli\u015fmelere ilave olarak birde Avrupa\u2019da Portekiz\u2019e ait finansman ve siyasi endi\u015feler g\u00fcndemde \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 .<\/p>\n

PIIGS k\u0131sa ad\u0131yla bilinen Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n sevilmeyen kahramanlar\u0131 (Portekiz, \u0130talya, \u0130rlanda, Yunanistan, \u0130spanya) aras\u0131nda ilk s\u0131rada yer alan Portekiz ,son iki haftada kredi derecelendirme kurulu\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n arka arkaya not indirimlerinin de etkisiyle tahvil ihalesi yapt\u0131. Tabi piyasalarca g\u00fcven sorunu konu\u015fulmaya ba\u015flan\u0131nca h\u00fck\u00fcmetin yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 \u00e7ekebilmek i\u00e7in, devlet tahvil getirisini y\u00fcksek\u00e7e bir faiz oran\u0131 sunmak zorunda kalmas\u0131na neden oldu ki, bu durum piyasa oyuncular\u0131nca faiz oran\u0131 ne kadar y\u00fcksekse; yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 g\u00f6z\u00fcndeki yat\u0131r\u0131m tutar\u0131n\u0131n o kadar riskli olaca\u011f\u0131 anlam\u0131na geldi\u011finden yeterince ilgi uyand\u0131rmad\u0131. Portekiz\u2019in son ihalesindeki 5 y\u0131ll\u0131k devlet tahvili getirileri 9,7\u2032ye ula\u015farak, 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k devlet tahvillerin getirilerinin \u00fczerinde seyreti. Y\u0131l\u0131n ilk aylar\u0131nda \u00fclkenin y\u00fcksek bor\u00e7 y\u00fck\u00fc ve yava\u015f b\u00fcy\u00fcme performans\u0131 nedeniyle \u2018kritik noktaya\u2019 yakla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6ren Portekiz h\u00fck\u00fcmeti, 500 milyon euroluk tahvil satarak mali piyasalar\u0131n g\u00fcvenini tazelemi\u015fti. 16 \u00fcyeli Avrupa Birli\u011finin i\u00e7indeki Portekiz\u2019in toplam gayri safi yurti\u00e7i has\u0131las\u0131ndaki pay\u0131 y\u00fczde 2\u2032den daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyede bulunuyor. \u0130rlanda ise durum pek farkl\u0131 de\u011fil, ,keza devletin el koydu\u011fu 4 banka i\u00e7in en az 24 milyar Euro sermaye takviyesi yap\u0131lmas\u0131 gere\u011fi saptand\u0131.<\/p>\n

Portekiz, \u0130rlanda ve Yunanistan endi\u015felendiriyor<\/h2>\n

El konulan Bankalar\u0131n devlete zarar\u0131 70 milyar Euro\u2019yu buluyor. K\u0131saca Portekiz, \u0130rlanda ve Yunanistan gibi \u00fclkelerin geldi\u011fi nokta endi\u015fe verici ve y\u00fckselen faizlerin, k\u0131sa vadeli fonlamaya b\u00fcy\u00fck oranda ihtiya\u00e7 duyulmas\u0131 ve bu ihtiya\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n AB taraf\u0131ndan nas\u0131l kar\u015f\u0131lanaca\u011f\u0131 birli\u011fin gelece\u011fi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00f6nemli. Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 (ECB) ve \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BOE) faiz kararlar\u0131 \u00f6n plana \u00e7\u0131kacak.\u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131n\u0131n faiz kararlar\u0131nda de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fe gitmesi beklenmezken, Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131n\u0131n g\u00f6sterge faizi % 1\u2019den % 1.25\u2019e y\u00fckseltmesi bekleniyor.<\/p>\n

ABD\u2019de cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc beklentilerden iyi a\u00e7\u0131klanan tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam verisinin 190 bin ki\u015fi beklenirken 216 bin ki\u015fi a\u00e7\u0131klanmas\u0131 ve \u015fubat ay\u0131na ait ABD tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam datas\u0131 ile %8,8\u2019e inen i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 da 2009\u2019dan beri ABD\u2019nin en iyi istihdam verisi olarak kay\u0131tlara ge\u00e7ti. ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 FED\u2019in ,QE2 denilen ikinci para geni\u015fleme program\u0131n\u0131 olan 600 milyar Dolar\u2019l\u0131k geni\u015flemeyi 2011 Haziran ay\u0131nda bitirecek olmas\u0131 o zamana kadar faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n olmayaca\u011f\u0131na dair bir ipucu niteli\u011fi ta\u015f\u0131sada ,1913 y\u0131l\u0131nda kurulan FED\u2019in 2008 y\u0131l\u0131na kadar bilan\u00e7osunu yakla\u015f\u0131k 100 y\u0131lda 1 trilyon dolara kadar b\u00fcy\u00fctm\u00fc\u015fken; 2008-2011 y\u0131l\u0131 aras\u0131nda piyasaya \u00e7e\u015fitli yollarla s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc QE1, QE2 likiditeler ile bilan\u00e7osunu 3 trilyon dolar civar\u0131na y\u00fckselmi\u015f oldu\u011fu ger\u00e7e\u011fi faizleri artt\u0131rma konusunda daha a\u011f\u0131r davranaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131n g\u00f6stergesi olabilir. Bu hafta i\u00e7inde FED yetkililerinin ekonomik de\u011ferlendirmelerini \u00e7ok iyi takip etmek gerekiyor ki faiz artt\u0131r\u0131m konusunda ipucu gelece\u011fi s\u00fcpriz olmayacak. Keza Fed yetkililerinin faiz artt\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde verece\u011fi ipu\u00e7lar\u0131 Euro\/dolar paritesi y\u00fckseltir, Faiz artt\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n konusu ge\u00e7mez ise istihdam ve enflasyon y\u00fckselirken faizler d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kalmas\u0131 ile dolar talebi ya\u015fanmayaca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fc ile Euro\/Dolar paritesinin d\u00fc\u015fmesine neden olur.<\/p>\n

AB ve ABD cephesinde t\u00fcm bu geli\u015fmeler ya\u015fan\u0131rken bug\u00fcn T\u00fcrkiye \u0130statistik Kurumu\u2019nun a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131\u011f\u0131 Mart ay\u0131 T\u00dcFE endeksi y\u00fczde 0.42; \u00dcretici fiyat endeksi \u00dcFE ise y\u00fczde 1.22 oran\u0131nda art\u0131\u015f kaydetmesi piyasalar\u0131 sevindirmeye yetti . 41 kere ma\u015fallah dedirten T\u00dcFE verisinin y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda son 41 y\u0131l\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesine gerilemesi rekor bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f asl\u0131nda. Y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ise Mart ay\u0131nda \u00dcFE y\u00fczde 10.08; T\u00dcFE y\u00fczde 3.99 oldu. \u00dcretici fiyatlar\u0131 ise h\u00e2l\u00e2 artan emtia fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00f6lgesinde kal\u0131yor. Petrol grubunda ayl\u0131k fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131 %9 ile olduk\u00e7a y\u00fcksek seviyedeyken y\u0131ll\u0131k art\u0131\u015f da %35 seviyesine yakla\u015f\u0131yor. T\u00fcketici cephesinde ayl\u0131k s\u00fcrpriz, gerileyen g\u0131da grubu fiyatlar\u0131ndan kaynaklan\u0131yor. Ay i\u00e7erisinde %0,41 d\u00fc\u015fen g\u0131da fiyatlar\u0131, ayl\u0131k T\u00dcFE\u2019yi 0,11 y\u00fczde puan a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekiyor.Ama burada kan\u0131mca bir paradoks s\u00f6z konusu \u015f\u00f6yleki; t\u00fcketici enflasyonunun 2 misli bir \u00fcretici enflasyonundan bahsediliyor ki bu durum uzunca bir s\u00fcredir g\u00f6rmedi\u011fimiz bir durum .Bunun anlam\u0131 asl\u0131nda \u00e7ok a\u00e7\u0131k ;\u00fcreticilerin girdi maliyetlerini \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 fiyatlar\u0131na yans\u0131tamad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve kar marjlar\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc apa\u00e7\u0131k ortada. Ticari olarak orta ve uzun vadede bunun s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclemeyece\u011fi ve bu enflasyon oranlar\u0131 ile t\u00fcketici enflasyonu olarak halka yans\u0131yaca\u011f\u0131 ortada.<\/p>\n

\u00d6mer DEM\u0130R<\/h4>\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Para Asla Uyumaz… NationalT\u00fcrk yorumcular\u0131m\u0131zdan Ekonomi ve Borsa uzman\u0131 \u00d6mer Demir \u2018in “Para Asla Uyumaz” adl\u0131 yaz\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 payla\u015f\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":9192212,"featured_media":49421,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[6199,5005,220816],"tags":[66226,10462,8595,5011,15,10,863,59406,66223,5848,68641,1202],"class_list":["post-64523","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ekonomi","category-manset","category-uzak-dogu","tag-avrupa-merkez-bankasi","tag-faiz-oranlari","tag-fed","tag-irlanda","tag-ispanya","tag-italya","tag-japonya","tag-para","tag-piigs","tag-portekiz","tag-portekiz-ekonomi","tag-yunanistan"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/64523","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/9192212"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=64523"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/64523\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/49421"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=64523"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=64523"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=64523"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}