{"id":67413,"date":"2011-04-29T16:44:37","date_gmt":"2011-04-29T13:44:37","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/?p=67413"},"modified":"2019-03-28T11:24:42","modified_gmt":"2019-03-28T08:24:42","slug":"trendy-ekonomi-merkez-bankasi-67413","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/trendy-ekonomi-merkez-bankasi-67413\/","title":{"rendered":"Trendy"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"<\/a>NationalT\u00fcrk yorumcular\u0131m\u0131zdan Ekonomi ve Borsa uzman\u0131 \u00d6mer Demir \u2018in “Trendy” adl\u0131 yaz\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 sizlerle payla\u015f\u0131yoruz;<\/h3>\n

26-27 Nisan 2011 tarihinde yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 toplant\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan faiz karar\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klayan Amerikan Merkez Bankas\u0131 (FED) ekonomik toparlanman\u0131n \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 bir h\u0131zda ilerlemeye devam etti\u011fi ve i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131 ko\u015fullar\u0131n\u0131n a\u015famal\u0131 bir bi\u00e7imde geli\u015fme g\u00f6sterdi\u011fini ifade ederek , faizleri tarihi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviye olan ,s\u0131f\u0131r ile % 0.25 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda b\u0131rak\u0131rken, 600 milyar dolarl\u0131k tahvil al\u0131m program\u0131n\u0131n (QE2) \u00f6nceden a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00fczere 30 Haziran 2011\u00b4de sona erece\u011fini bildirdi. Bununla birlikte Fed, gerekti\u011fi takdirde portf\u00f6y\u00fcndeki ABD hazine tahvilleri ile mortgage destekli menkulerin miktar\u0131nda ayarlamalar yapaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti ve enflasyonda y\u00fckseli\u015fin ge\u00e7ici oldu\u011funu, istihdam piyasas\u0131n\u0131n ise hala endi\u015fe verici oldu\u011funu,g\u0131da,enerji sekt\u00f6r\u00fc ve emtiadaki fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n enflasyonu yukar\u0131 \u00e7ekti\u011fini, ancak bunun ge\u00e7ici bir durum olmas\u0131n\u0131n beklendi\u011fini belirten Amerikan Merkez Bankas\u0131 acaba s\u00f6ylemlerinde ne kadar samimi?<\/p>\n

H\u0130PERENFLASYONA DO\u011eRU<\/h4>\n

Amerikan Merkez Bankas\u0131 bir s\u00fcre daha faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck tutularak ekonomiyi canland\u0131rma \u00e7abalar\u0131na devam edilece\u011fi mesaj\u0131n\u0131 verirken a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 \u0131s\u0131nan ekonomik \u00e7arklar\u0131n varl\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan bi haber sanki. FED, daha \u00f6nce %1.3 ile %1.7 aras\u0131nda \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc enflasyon beklentisini 2011 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in % 2.1 ile 2.8 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131na y\u00fckseltirken ,b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentisini ise % 3.4 ile 3.9 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan, % 3.1 ile 3.3 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131na \u00e7ekti.Keza piyasalar\u0131n bekledi\u011fi tarih olan 16 May\u0131s 2011 tarihinde Fed’in borclanmas\u0131n\u0131n ne kadar rahat olaca\u011f\u0131 muamma konusu. FED\u2019in rekor d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyede seyreden faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131 sabit tutma karar\u0131 belki s\u00fcpriz olmad\u0131 ama karar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan Dolar Endeksi 2008\u2019den bu yana son \u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131l\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesi olan 73 puanlara geriledi,bu seviyenin alt\u0131ndaki 80 seviyeleri ise \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn habercisidir; alt\u0131n\u0131n onsu ise tarih yazd\u0131rmaya devam ediyor 1534 seviyesi test edildi, 1 kg k\u00fcl\u00e7e alt\u0131n tarihinde ilk kez 50.000 dolara dayand\u0131.<\/p>\n

B\u00dcY\u00dcK RES\u0130M<\/h4>\n

2008\u2019de 17 dolardan i\u015flem g\u00f6ren g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f (SILVER) \u015fimdilerde 50 dolar mertebelerinde,ayn\u0131 y\u0131l 650 dolar olan alt\u0131n\u0131n onsu 1534 seviyelerinde ve EURO\/USD paritesi ise 1.20\u2019ler seviyesinde iken bug\u00fcnlerde 1.50 ler d\u00fczeyi konu\u015fuluyorsa bence ABD ciddi bir enflasyon riski ile kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya. Bug\u00fcn belki ABD gibi b\u00fcy\u00fck bir ekonominin \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc kimse beklemiyor olsada hala b\u00f6yle bir ihtimal var. Ger\u00e7i t\u00fcm d\u00fcnyada bug\u00fcnlerde g\u00fcndem konusu Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n sevilmeyen \u00e7ocuklar\u0131 PIIGS\u2019lerin (Portekiz,\u0130rlanda,\u0130talya,Yunanistan,\u0130spanya) bor\u00e7lar\u0131 iken ,Yunanistan\u2019\u0131n b\u00fct\u00e7esinden \u00e7ok b\u00fcy\u00fck bor\u00e7lar\u0131 g\u00fcndemde iken, b\u00fcy\u00fck resimde ABD\u2019nin sanal ekonomisinin gelmi\u015f oldu\u011fu nokta ,t\u00fcm Avrupa Birli\u011finin bor\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n kat kat daha fazlas\u0131.Bu bor\u00e7larla uzun y\u0131llar gidemeyece\u011fide a\u015fikar. Hatta Haziran 2011 de yeni bir parasal geni\u015fleme (QE3) plan\u0131n\u0131 devreye sokmaz ,yeni parasal musluklar\u0131 a\u00e7maz ise k\u0131sa vadede \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015f gelir. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc 2008 de \u00e7\u00f6ken piyasalar\u0131n yukar\u0131 gitme sebebi sadece FED\u2019in piyasalara para pompalamas\u0131ndan kaynaklaniyor . Yoksa 2008\u2019de ya\u015fanan bu denli b\u00fcy\u00fck bir \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015f k\u0131sa vadede d\u00fczelmedi, borsalar\u0131 yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131yan tek neden FED\u2019in d\u00fcnyaya s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc para bollu\u011fu.<\/p>\n

\u015e\u00f6yle bir ger\u00e7ek var Amerikan Merkez Bankas\u0131 kurulu\u015f tarihi olan 1913\u2019den bug\u00fcne bast\u0131\u011f\u0131 para miktar\u0131 1 trilyon dolar iken ,son \u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131ldaki FED\u2019in bilan\u00e7osu 3 trilyon dolar\u0131 ge\u00e7ti. K\u0131saca FED krizle birlikte son 98 y\u0131ll\u0131k ge\u00e7mi\u015finde ,piyasadaki mevcut paras\u0131n\u0131n iki kat fazlas\u0131n\u0131 ,son \u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131lda piyasaya pompalad\u0131. \u015eimdi piyasalar 3. niceliksel gev\u015feme program\u0131 olmayaca\u011f\u0131ndan bunun yans\u0131mas\u0131 olan enflasyonist etkinin kal\u0131c\u0131 olmayaca\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc ile ABD borsalar\u0131n\u0131 yukar\u0131ya ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. Ama trend bu y\u00f6nde ,o y\u00fczden piyasa oyuncular\u0131 verileri kendi pozisyonlar\u0131na g\u00f6re de\u011ferlendiriyor. \u015eayet trend de\u011fi\u015fince yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar \u015f\u00f6yle d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnecek ; senetler de\u011ferine ula\u015ft\u0131 ,bol likititeden \u00f6t\u00fcr\u00fc art\u0131k enflasyonist korkularda yok ,derlerse piyasa bo\u011falardan ay\u0131lara ge\u00e7er ki ,o zaman 2008 aran\u0131r hale gelir. \u00d6zetle ;Haziran 2011 deki beklenen QE3 sadece bahane ,trend ne y\u00f6ne d\u00f6nerse veriler \u00f6yle alg\u0131lanacak,ama ABD in s\u00fcrekli bor\u00e7lanmas\u0131 sayesinde finansal sistemini kaosa s\u00fcr\u00fckledi\u011fi g\u00f6zler \u00f6n\u00fcnde.<\/p>\n

GER\u00c7EK\u00c7\u0130 NOTLAR<\/h4>\n

Ge\u00e7en hafta; kredi derecelendirme kurulu\u015fu Standart & Poor cesurca bir ad\u0131m atm\u0131\u015f ve tarihinde ilk kez ABD\u2019nin kredi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc dura\u011fan\u2019dan,negatif\u201de \u00e7ekmi\u015fti. Ger\u00e7i karar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan Ba\u015fkan Obama kurmaylar\u0131yla tv kanallar\u0131n\u0131 gezmi\u015f bu karar\u0131n ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtmi\u015f ve S&P\u2019yi tehtit etmi\u015flerdi. D\u00fcnyan\u0131n hangi \u00fclkesi olursa olsun en k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck ekonomik bozulmada ,o \u00fclkenin notunu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmede pek \u00e7abuk davranan kredi derecelendirme kurulu\u015flar\u0131 ABD\u2019nin y\u0131llarca hal\u0131n\u0131n dibine s\u00fcp\u00fcr\u00fclm\u00fc\u015f k\u00f6t\u00fc gidi\u015fat\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131k saklayamam\u0131\u015f olacak ki karar\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Olay\u0131n kahraman\u0131 15 trilyonluk sanal bir b\u00fct\u00e7eye sahip bir \u00fclke olunca g\u00f6r\u00fclmesi zor olmu\u015f olabilir. Karar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan g\u00f6zler di\u011fer kredi derecelendirme kurulu\u015flar\u0131 MOODYS ve FITCH\u2019e \u00e7evrildi ama belkide siyasi sebeplerle bu karar teyit edilemedi. Bu karar\u0131n di\u011fer kurulu\u015flarcada teyidi piyasalar\u0131 ters d\u00fcz etmeye yeterde ge\u00e7er.<\/p>\n

Ve \u2026 ALTIN<\/h4>\n

Krizden bug\u00fcne QE1,QE2 gibi \u00e7e\u015fitli isimlerle piyasaya s\u00fcr\u00fclen,Avrupa\u2019ya yard\u0131m ama\u00e7l\u0131 g\u00f6nderilmi\u015f yarat\u0131lan fazla para, piyasada sterlize edilmedik\u00e7e Merkez Bankalar\u0131 i\u00e7in risk hala mevcut. Ancak \u015fuanki durumda bu yarat\u0131lan paran\u0131n ekonomiye ivme kazand\u0131rmas\u0131 beklenirken olu\u015fan k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck enflasyonlara y\u00f6netimler taraf\u0131ndan g\u00f6z yumulmaktad\u0131r. Yani kontroll\u00fc enflasyon iyidir. Bununla beraber Merkez Bankalar\u0131 fazla paray\u0131 ancak y\u00fcksek emtia fiyatlar\u0131yla piyasadan \u00e7ekeceklerini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmektedir. Ama her ge\u00e7en g\u00fcn y\u00fckselen alt\u0131n,petrol,di\u011fer emtia ve g\u0131da fiyatlar\u0131 enflasyon \u00fczerinde ivmeli hareket yapt\u0131rmakta ve enflasyon \u00fczerindeki kontrol\u00fc kaybetmelerine neden olmaktad\u0131r. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar sadece hali haz\u0131rdaki likitideye g\u00f6re de\u011fil yarat\u0131lacak paralara g\u00f6re de kendilerini enflasyondan korumak istedikleri i\u00e7in alt\u0131n almaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n

30 may\u0131s 2011 de yeni bir parasal geni\u015fleme karar\u0131 \u00e7\u0131karsa alt\u0131n\u0131n onsuna 1700 dolarlar ,pariteye ise 1.60 lar yolu a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131r ve borsalarda yeni yeni zirve yollar\u0131na girer. Parasal geni\u015fleme beklenildi\u011fi gibi kabul edilmezse, bu yine alt\u0131n\u2019a yarar, piyasalar bu karar\u0131 Senato FED\u2019e bor\u00e7 vermedi diye sindirir. Bunun sonucunda borsalar d\u00fc\u015fer ,ama paralar yine g\u00fcvenli limana kayar.Yani her halukarda alt\u0131n yukar\u0131! Emtia piyasalar\u0131yla ilgili yat\u0131r\u0131m gurusu ilan edilen Jim Rogers\u2019in hafta i\u00e7i yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir a\u00e7\u0131klamada \u2018\u2019insanlar alt\u0131n\u0131 on sene \u00f6nce almal\u0131yd\u0131\u2019\u2019 s\u00f6ylememine de hak vermemek elde de\u011fil. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc alt\u0131n son 11 y\u0131ld\u0131r soluk almadan y\u00fckseli\u015f trendinde!<\/p>\n

\u00d6mer DEM\u0130R<\/h5>\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Amerikan Merkez Bankas\u0131 faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck tutularak ekonomiyi canland\u0131rma \u00e7abalar\u0131na devam edilece\u011fi mesaj\u0131n\u0131 verirken a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 \u0131s\u0131nan ekonomik \u00e7arklar\u0131n varl\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan bi haber sanki. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":9192212,"featured_media":67416,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[6199,5005],"tags":[57457,8596,195946,68642,68645,68643,10463,68641,68644],"class_list":["post-67413","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ekonomi","category-manset","tag-altin","tag-amerikan-merkez-bankasi","tag-ekonomi","tag-irlanda-ekonomi","tag-ispanya-ekonomi","tag-italya-ekonomi","tag-merkez-bankasi","tag-portekiz-ekonomi","tag-yunanistan-ekonomi"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/67413","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/9192212"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=67413"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/67413\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/67416"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=67413"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=67413"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=67413"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}