{"id":68370,"date":"2011-05-09T11:02:06","date_gmt":"2011-05-09T08:02:06","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/?p=68370"},"modified":"2022-09-11T15:39:35","modified_gmt":"2022-09-11T12:39:35","slug":"sifir-faiz-5826","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/sifir-faiz-5826\/","title":{"rendered":"S\u0131f\u0131r faize do\u011fru"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"<\/a>Faizlerin hangi seviyelerde olmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fine siyasilerin m\u00fcdahalesi, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin yak\u0131n tarihine damgas\u0131n\u0131 vurmu\u015f bir rituel.<\/h3>\n

1990 \u2018l\u0131 y\u0131llardan itibaren ,ba\u015fta TCMB olmak \u00fczere ekonomi y\u00f6netimi ile iktidar ortaklar\u0131n\u0131n, y\u00fcksek faiz su\u00e7lusu olarak Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131 g\u00f6stermeleri ve y\u00fcksek faizden s\u00fcrekli \u015fikayet etmelerine al\u0131\u015fk\u0131n\u0131z. Yine son olarak Say\u0131n Ba\u015fbakan Erdo\u011fan\u2019da bu konudaki hakl\u0131 memnuniyetsizli\u011fine dair devrim niteli\u011findeki fikirlerini a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Se\u00e7imler \u00f6ncesi belki vaad niteli\u011fi ta\u015f\u0131yan ama \u2018s\u0131f\u0131r faiz\u2019 perspektifli bir tart\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 pop\u00fcler g\u00fcndemde ilk defa tetiklemi\u015f olmas\u0131 bile T\u00fcrkiye i\u00e7in bir d\u00f6n\u00fcm noktas\u0131. Ba\u015fbakan Erdo\u011fan\u2019\u0131n ABD ve Japonya\u2019daki % 0.25 seviyelerindeki faizler ile \u00f6rneklendirdi\u011fi ve T\u00fcrkiyedeki %7-%8 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131ndaki faizler ile kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 konu\u015fmas\u0131nda \u2018asl\u0131nda faizi att\u0131ran enflasyon de\u011fil, enflasyonu azd\u0131ran faizdir” diye ekledi.\u2028\u2028 Ama konu\u015fman\u0131n en can al\u0131c\u0131 noktas\u0131 olarak \u2019Faizden de\u011fil art\u0131k \u00fcretimden para kazanal\u0131m\u2019\u2019 s\u00f6z\u00fc de ba\u015fl\u0131 ba\u015f\u0131na umut kayna\u011f\u0131 oldu. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc d\u00fcnyada kriz sebebiyle zaten reel faiz yakla\u015f\u0131k 2 y\u0131ld\u0131r s\u0131f\u0131r\u0131n alt\u0131nda. T\u00fcrkiye ise y\u00fcksek reel faizde d\u00fcnya d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fcs\u00fc.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Geli\u015fmi\u015f ve geli\u015fmekte olan piyasalarda reel faizde ilk s\u0131rada % 5.29 ile Brezilya yer al\u0131yor. \u0130ngiltere, ABD ve Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde bu oran s\u0131f\u0131ra yak\u0131n. Birde baz\u0131 \u00fclkeler var ki ya\u015fanan k\u00fcresel ekonomik krizin ard\u0131ndan ya\u015fanan durgunluktan \u00e7\u0131kmak i\u00e7in uygulad\u0131\u011f\u0131 para politikalar\u0131na g\u00f6re reel faizleri eksi olanlar, mesela ; Singapur’un %- 4.34 , Hong Kong’da % -4.15 seviyelerinde ,\u0130ngiltere’nin% -3.05 ve mali krizdeki Yunanistan’\u0131n -3.0 seviyesindeki reel faiz oran\u0131 ABD’de ise -2.43 olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n

Reel faiz nedir?<\/h3>\n

K\u0131saca nominal faiz oran\u0131ndan enflasyon oran\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fclmesiyle bulunun faiz oran\u0131d\u0131r. Yani enflasyondan ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f faizdir. \u015e\u00f6yle bir \u00f6rnek ile a\u00e7\u0131klayal\u0131m ,\u00f6rne\u011fin; faizlerin %10,enflasyonun %8 oldu\u011fu bir ekonomide bankaya yat\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131z 100 TL vade sonunda 110 tl olmaktad\u0131r.Vade sonunda kazanc\u0131n\u0131z 10 lira de\u011fildir paran\u0131n de\u011fer kayb\u0131ndan dolay\u0131 2 lirad\u0131r asl\u0131nda .\u00dclke ekonomilerinde ise reel faiz , beklenen enflasyonun \u00fczerine yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n bor\u00e7 vermek i\u00e7in istedikleri ekstra faiz fark\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n

T\u00fcrkiye 90\u2019lardan bug\u00fcne devam eden b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 sorununu finanse edebilmek i\u00e7in reel faizleri hep y\u00fcksek tuttu. Bir\u00e7ok h\u00fck\u00fcmet de\u011fi\u015fti bir\u00e7ok para politikas\u0131 gelip ge\u00e7ti ama mant\u0131kta T\u00fcrkiye aral\u0131ks\u0131z y\u00fcksek faize kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k ,d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kur politikas\u0131n\u0131 uygulamaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bu politikay\u0131 bir ka\u00e7 defa de\u011fi\u015ftirmeye kalkt\u0131 ama sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 hep h\u00fcsran ile tamamland\u0131. 1994 y\u0131l\u0131nda ya\u015fanan krizi reel faiz ekseninde de\u011ferlendirirmek pekala m\u00fcmk\u00fcn. 2008 krizi sonras\u0131 da d\u00fcnya genelinde d\u00fc\u015fen faizlere T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin kay\u0131ts\u0131z kalmas\u0131 ,a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 s\u0131cak para giri\u015fine neden oldu ve T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131\u2019n\u0131n de\u011feri y\u00fckseldi .Bunun sonucu ihracat azal\u0131p ,ithal ikamesi ba\u015flad\u0131 ve tabi beklenen sonu\u00e7 \u2018\u2019cari a\u00e7\u0131k\u2019\u2019 yeni rekorlar k\u0131rd\u0131. Yani ortada \u2018\u2019yabanc\u0131 s\u0131cak para\u2019\u2019 sorunu var ve bunu a\u015fman\u0131n tek yolu sadece k\u0131sa vadeli yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131ya uygulanmas\u0131 gereken vergi \u015fart\u0131.<\/p>\n

Enflasyona e\u015fit veya en yak\u0131n bir faiz oran\u0131, T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131\u2019n\u0131n de\u011ferlenmesini engelleyecek ve reel faizi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrecektir tezi bug\u00fcn\u00fcn ko\u015fullar\u0131nda eksik kalmaktad\u0131r. Reel faizin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fclmesi sadece Merkez Bankalar\u0131n\u0131n ya da siyasi otoritenin istemesi ile m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olmamaktad\u0131r. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc reel faizdeki \u00f6nemli k\u0131stas ileriye d\u00f6n\u00fck enflasyon beklentilerinin yerli veya yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 g\u00f6z\u00fcnde riske g\u00f6re de\u011fi\u015fmesi ihtimalidir.<\/p>\n

S\u0131f\u0131r faiz ortam\u0131ndaki riskler!<\/h4>\n

Faizlerin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc belki k\u0131sa vadeli \u00f6zellikle yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131n\u0131n T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de elde etti\u011fi d\u00fcnya ortalamas\u0131n\u0131n \u00fczerindeki tatl\u0131 getiriyi k\u0131sabilir ama bunun sonucu \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn k\u0131sa vadeli d\u0131\u015f bor\u00e7lar\u0131 olan 73 milyar dolar\u0131 \u00e7evirememe riski yarat\u0131r. Reel faiz tan\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n kalbi diyebilece\u011fimiz enflasyon beklenti kavram\u0131 ile uyumlu olarak d\u00fcnyada ki dengelerin kaygan zeminde oldu\u011fu varsay\u0131m\u0131 alt\u0131nda ,gerek MENA(Orta Do\u011fu ve ,Kuzey Afrika)gerekse PIIGS \u00fclkeleri ve ABD de ya\u015fanacak olumlu\/olumsuz bir etkinin ba\u015fta petrol olmak \u00fczere emtia fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 h\u0131zla artt\u0131rma ihtimali varken ,art\u0131k bir \u00e7ok \u00fclke faizleri artt\u0131r\u0131m periyoduna ba\u015flam\u0131\u015f iken s\u0131f\u0131r faiz i\u00e7in bug\u00fcn\u00fcn ko\u015fullar\u0131na uygun olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 sonucunu do\u011furur. Ayr\u0131ca a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 \u0131s\u0131nan bir ekonomi olarak T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin se\u00e7imden sonra h\u00fck\u00fcmet mali politikas\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma, Merkez Bankas\u0131 da faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131 artt\u0131rma bask\u0131s\u0131yla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya kalma riskide mevcut.<\/p>\n

Yumurtam\u0131 tavuktan tavukmu yumurtadan hikayesi gibidir faiz \u2013enflasyon sarmal\u0131. Unutulmamas\u0131 gereken konu faizin bir neden de\u011fil, \u00e7o\u011funlukla bir sonu\u00e7 oldu\u011fu ger\u00e7e\u011fidir. Hatta \u2018\u2019s\u0131f\u0131r faiz\u2019\u2019 yani enflasyon kadar faiz politikas\u0131 T\u00fcrkiye gibi hane halk\u0131 yurti\u00e7i tasarruf birikimi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck,tasarruf a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 olan \u00fclkeler a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan, talep patlamas\u0131 ya\u015fanaca\u011f\u0131 riski ile enflasyonu t\u0131rmand\u0131racak ve sonu\u00e7 olarakta reel faizleri belkide \u00e7ift basamakl\u0131 rakamlara ta\u015f\u0131yarak ters etki yapacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n

Yerli yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131ya zaten s\u0131f\u0131r<\/h4>\n

\u015eu an bankalar\u0131n ortalama mevduata verdi\u011fi faizler vergisiz % 8.6 civar\u0131ndad\u0131r,vergiler d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde bu oran maximum % 7 oluyor. TCMB,verilerine g\u00f6re enflasyonun, y\u00fczde 70 olas\u0131l\u0131kla, 2011 y\u0131l\u0131 sonunda y\u00fczde 5,6 ile y\u00fczde 8,2 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda (orta noktas\u0131 y\u00fczde 6,9), 2012 y\u0131l sonunda ise y\u00fczde 3,4 ile 7,0 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda (orta noktas\u0131 y\u00fczde 5,2) ger\u00e7ekle\u015fece\u011fi tahmin edildi\u011fine g\u00f6re, bu varsay\u0131m\u0131nda zaten yerli yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131ya reel faiz \u00f6denmedi\u011fi ortaya \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor .D\u00fcnyada s\u0131cak para bollu\u011fu nedeniyle \u00fclkemizde bulunan k\u0131sa vadeli yabanc\u0131ya ise %7 rakam\u0131 \u00f6d\u00fcl gibi gelebilir. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc paran\u0131n kayna\u011f\u0131 olan \u00fclkerde ise enflasyonun y\u00fczde 3-4 s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131nda oldu\u011fu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde yabanc\u0131lar\u0131n bu i\u015ften daha karl\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u015fikar .<\/p>\n

T\u00fcrkiye i\u00e7in \u2018s\u0131f\u0131r reel faiz\u2019 gerekli ama erken.\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin iki b\u00fcy\u00fck problemi olan \u2018\u2019cari a\u00e7\u0131k\u2019\u2019 ve \u2018\u2019tasarruf a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019\u2019 sorununa kal\u0131c\u0131 bir \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm bulmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 taktirde s\u0131f\u0131r faiz i\u00e7in erken diyebiliriz. Ekonomisi d\u0131\u015far\u0131 ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 ve son verilere g\u00f6re ge\u00e7en senenin %126 \u00fczerinde olan cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z \u00f6zellikle petrol , do\u011falgaz, elektirik, maliyetleri sebebiyle dahada artacak gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. 2010 Mart ay\u0131nda %65,9 olan ihracat\u0131n ithalat\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131lama oran\u0131, 2011 Mart ay\u0131nda %54,7\u2019ye gerilemi\u015f iken, maliye politikalar\u0131ndaki \u00f6ncelik a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 \u0131s\u0131nan ekonomiyi so\u011futmak ,t\u00fcketim mal\u0131 ithalat\u0131n\u0131 frenlemek ve cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n \u00f6nemli etkenlerinden biri olan yerli enerji projeleri olmal\u0131yd\u0131.<\/p>\n

\u00d6mer DEM\u0130R<\/strong><\/p>\n\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Faizlerin hangi seviyelerde olmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fine siyasilerin m\u00fcdahalesi, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin yak\u0131n tarihine damgas\u0131n\u0131 vurmu\u015f bir rituel.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":9192212,"featured_media":68379,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[6199,5005,220816],"tags":[3888,69441,8190,863,10463,69443,40951],"class_list":["post-68370","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ekonomi","category-manset","category-uzak-dogu","tag-basbakan-erdogan","tag-cari-acik","tag-enflasyon","tag-japonya","tag-merkez-bankasi","tag-piigs-ulkeleri","tag-tcmb"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/68370","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/9192212"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=68370"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/68370\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/68379"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=68370"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=68370"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=68370"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}