{"id":68605,"date":"2011-05-10T18:11:26","date_gmt":"2011-05-10T15:11:26","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/?p=68605"},"modified":"2011-05-10T18:20:18","modified_gmt":"2011-05-10T15:20:18","slug":"secim-tahminleri-2011-12-haziran-secimleri-68605","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/secim-tahminleri-2011-12-haziran-secimleri-68605\/","title":{"rendered":"12 Haziran 2011 Se\u00e7im Tahmini ve Se\u00e7im Manip\u00fclasyonlar\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"<h1><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignleft size-medium wp-image-68610\" src=\"http:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/05\/secimanketiii-280x175.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"280\" height=\"175\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/05\/secimanketiii-280x175.jpg 280w, https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/05\/secimanketiii.jpg 400w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 280px) 100vw, 280px\" \/><br \/>\nT\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin kaderine etki edecek olan 12 Haziran se\u00e7imlerine tam 1 ay kald\u0131. G\u00f6r\u00fcnen tablo, 4 kanatl\u0131 bir meclis olu\u015faca\u011f\u0131 ve bu meclisin yeni bir anayasa haz\u0131rlayaca\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde.<\/h1>\n<p>Belki de \u00fclkenin idari yap\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 de\u011fi\u015ftirecek bir anayasa olacak bu. \u0130ktidar partisi alelacele istihbarat te\u015fkilat\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131na getirdi\u011fi gen\u00e7 Hakan Fidan\u2019\u0131 s\u00fcrekli \u0130mral\u0131\u2019ya yollayarak olu\u015fabilecek yeni idari yap\u0131 ile ilgili g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerini s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor.  \u0130ktidar partisi, G\u00fcneydo\u011fu b\u00f6lgesinde de g\u00f6rece olarak halk\u0131n tevecc\u00fch g\u00f6stermekten uzak oldu\u011fu isimleri aday g\u00f6stererek anayasa g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerinde ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z adaylar\u0131n say\u0131ca biraz daha fazla olmas\u0131n\u0131 istedi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Belki de \u0130mral\u0131 ile yap\u0131lan g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin neticesinde olmu\u015ftur bu. Ancak her f\u0131rsatta ileri demokrasiye ge\u00e7ildi\u011fini vurgulayan Ba\u015fbakan,\u0130mral\u0131 ile yap\u0131lan bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri de \u015feffafl\u0131ktan uzak, ben yapt\u0131m oldu edas\u0131 ile ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdi\u011fi i\u00e7in neler konu\u015fuldu\u011funu, hangi tavizlerle ne uzla\u015fmalar sa\u011fland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bilemiyoruz.<\/p>\n<p>Yap\u0131lan siyasetin seviyesi kelime oyunlar\u0131na dayal\u0131 din bezirganl\u0131\u011f\u0131na indirildi\u011fi i\u00e7in iktidar partisinin CHP\u2019nin geli\u015ftirdi\u011fi projelerden rahats\u0131z oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnebiliriz. Efendim Kemal K\u0131l\u0131\u00e7daro\u011flu \u201cStat\u00fckonun Allah\u2019\u0131 Ankara\u2019da\u201d demi\u015f. Ba\u015fbakan Allah lamekan\u2019d\u0131r daha bunu bilmiyorlar diyor. Hangi akla bu s\u00f6zden K\u0131l\u0131\u00e7daro\u011flu\u2019nun f\u0131khi bir yorum yaparak Allah\u2019a mekan bi\u00e7ti\u011fi fikri d\u00fc\u015febilir. Tabii ki oy dev\u015firme pe\u015finde olan I-pad\u2019li  president Recep Tayyip Erdo\u011fan\u2019\u0131n akl\u0131na. G\u00fcnl\u00fck dilde kullan\u0131lan bir kal\u0131b\u0131n bile bu \u015fekilde siyasi malzeme yap\u0131lmas\u0131, ve dinden, dini duygulardan rant elde edilmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131 duyulan tedirginli\u011fin bir sonucu.<\/p>\n<p>G\u00f6r\u00fcnen o ki meclis artimeti\u011fi, \u00f6zellikle Anayasa g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri s\u00fcrecinde hayati \u00f6nemde olacak. Bu noktada elbette meclise 3 parti mi yoksa 4 parti mi girecek bu aritmeti\u011fi ba\u015ftan a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 de\u011fi\u015ftirebilir. Kamuoyuna yans\u0131t\u0131lan anketlerde baraj civar\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fcnen MHP\u2019ye y\u00f6nelik planl\u0131 programl\u0131 y\u0131pratma kampanyas\u0131 bu y\u00fczdendir.Takip edenler zaten hemen fark\u0131na varm\u0131\u015flard\u0131r, yanda\u015f medyada bir s\u00fcreden beri MHP\u2019nin \u00e7izgisinden uzakla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131, bir de\u011fi\u015fim ve d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcme ihtiyac\u0131 oldu\u011fu y\u00f6n\u00fcnde haberler ve k\u00f6\u015fe yaz\u0131lar\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kmaktayd\u0131. \u0130\u015fte \u015fimdi bu son kasetler hep MHP\u2019yi baraj alt\u0131nda b\u0131rakarak iktidar partisini mecliste daha \u00e7ok sandalyeye kavu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in. Bu arada e\u011fer iki y\u00fczl\u00fcl\u00fckten uzak ilkeli siyasetten bahsetmek istiyorsak bu \u015fekilde siyasi rant sa\u011flamak i\u00e7in insanlar\u0131n \u00f6zel  hayat\u0131n\u0131 kumpaslarla ortaya sermek yapmam\u0131z gereken en son \u015fey olmal\u0131. Ancak \u201cStat\u00fckonun Allah\u2019\u0131\u201d  kal\u0131b\u0131n\u0131 bile \u00e7arp\u0131tarak dini alimlik, irfan sahibi olmak seviyesinde bir siyaset anlay\u0131\u015f\u0131na sahip olanlar\u0131n insanlar\u0131n \u00f6zel hayat\u0131n\u0131 f\u00fct\u00fcrsuzca if\u015fa etmenin erdemsizli\u011fini anlamaktan da ne kadar uzak oldu\u011fu ortadad\u0131r. Hi\u00e7 bir durumda insanlar\u0131n \u00f6zel hayat\u0131 bu \u015fekilde\u00a0vandalca ayaklar alt\u0131na al\u0131namaz. Bu ahlaks\u0131zl\u0131kt\u0131r, hukuken su\u00e7tur, etik olarak yanl\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>\u015eimdi gelelim aritmetik hesab\u0131m\u0131za. Saadet Partisi, Demokrat Parti, Has Parti, BBP, Hepar,TKP, EMEP, \u0130\u015f\u00e7i Partisi gibi partilerin toplam oy oranlar\u0131n\u0131n kabaca bir tahminle %8\u2019ler civar\u0131nda oldu\u011funu varsayal\u0131m. Buna BDP\u2019nin alaca\u011f\u0131 %7 civar\u0131ndaki oyu da ekleyelim. Ki bu aritmeti\u011fin i\u00e7inde olmas\u0131 gereken BDP\u2019den ayr\u0131 di\u011fer ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z adaylar\u0131n alaca\u011f\u0131 bir k\u00fcs\u00fcratta olacakt\u0131r. Toplam %15 oy bu \u015fekilde da\u011f\u0131lacakt\u0131r. Buradan AKP, CHP ve MHP\u2019nin %85 oyu payla\u015faca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnebiliriz.<\/p>\n<p>BU noktadan hareketle  AKP\u2019nin %42-43 etraf\u0131nda, CHP\u2019nin %30-32 etraf\u0131nda MHP\u2019nin de %10-12 etraf\u0131nda oldu\u011funu kestirebiliyoruz. Son bir ayda ola\u011fan\u00fcst\u00fc de\u011fi\u015fikliklere yol a\u00e7abilecek bir \u015fey olmaz demek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn de\u011fil. Daha \u00f6nce Cem Uzan\u2019\u0131n GP\u2019sinin 2 ayda d\u00f6ner-ekmek eksenli siyaseti ile %7 oy alarak AKP\u2019nin ilk kez tek ba\u015f\u0131na iktidara gelmesini sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 hat\u0131rlatmakta fayda var.<\/p>\n<p>Son bir ayda iktidar partisi mensuplar\u0131 ve iktidar partisinden daha \u00e7ok tek ba\u015f\u0131na AKP iktidar\u0131 i\u00e7in u\u011fra\u015fanlar\u0131n \u00e7abalar\u0131 CHP ve MHP \u00fcst\u00fcnde yo\u011funla\u015facakt\u0131r. CHP\u2019yi  ele ge\u00e7en her f\u0131rsatta dini bilmemekle su\u00e7lanmak ve CHP\u2019li belediyelere yap\u0131lacak \u0130zmir\u2019dekine benzer operasyonlar , MHP\u2019yi de baraj alt\u0131na itmek i\u00e7in yeni \u00f6zel hayat if\u015faatlar\u0131 ve p\u00fcskevit tarz\u0131 ucuz itibars\u0131zla\u015ft\u0131rma operasyonlar\u0131 beklemektedir.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Erdem ASYALI \/ NationalTurk<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong><!-- Error, Advert is not available at this time due to schedule\/geolocation restrictions! -->\n<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong><!-- Error, Advert is not available at this time due to schedule\/geolocation restrictions! --><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin kaderine etki edecek olan 12 Haziran se\u00e7imlerine tam 1 ay kald\u0131. G\u00f6r\u00fcnen tablo, 4 kanatl\u0131 bir meclis olu\u015faca\u011f\u0131 ve bu meclisin yeni bir anayasa haz\u0131rlayaca\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":68610,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[6155,5005,6202,772,6805],"tags":[9476,3888,6158,8723,7793,12042,64930,54826,39551,29123,5115,10829,12778,13867,53497,2883],"class_list":["post-68605","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-gundem","category-manset","category-politika","category-sadece-nationalturk-de","category-turkiye","tag-akp","tag-basbakan-erdogan","tag-bbp","tag-chp","tag-demokrat-parti","tag-emep","tag-erdem-asyali","tag-has-parti","tag-hepar","tag-isci-partisi","tag-kemal-kilicdaroglu","tag-mhp","tag-saadet-partisi","tag-secim-anketi","tag-secim-sonuclari","tag-tkp"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/68605","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=68605"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/68605\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/68610"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=68605"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=68605"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=68605"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}