{"id":71637,"date":"2011-06-08T13:47:39","date_gmt":"2011-06-08T10:47:39","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/?p=71637"},"modified":"2019-03-28T11:24:36","modified_gmt":"2019-03-28T08:24:36","slug":"secim-senaryolari-71637","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/secim-senaryolari-71637\/","title":{"rendered":"Senaryo"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"<\/a><\/h3>\n

NationalT\u00fcrk yorumcular\u0131m\u0131zdan Ekonomi ve Borsa uzman\u0131 \u00d6mer Demir \u2018in bu haftaki “Senaryo” adl\u0131 makalesini sizlerle payla\u015f\u0131yoruz;<\/h3>\n

Genel se\u00e7imlere g\u00fcnler kala se\u00e7im sonu\u00e7lar\u0131na ili\u015fkin,bir\u00e7ok senaryonun havalarda u\u00e7tu\u011fu ve her yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131n\u0131n bu senaryolara ili\u015fkin pozisyon ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 ,beklentilere dair haberlerin volatiliteyi artt\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemdeyiz. Bu senaryolar\u0131n piyasay\u0131 nas\u0131l \u015fekillendirece\u011fine dair tahminlerde su y\u00fcz\u00fcne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 bile.<\/p>\n

T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin ekonomik g\u00fcndemi ,siyasi g\u00fcndemi ile paralel gitse de se\u00e7im sonras\u0131 T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin kredi notunu \u201cyat\u0131r\u0131m yap\u0131labilir \u00fclkeler\u201d kategorisine almas\u0131 beklenen Moody\u2019den gelen \u2018\u2019cari a\u00e7\u0131k\u2019\u2019 bahanesi ile kredi notunu de\u011fi\u015ftirmeyece\u011fine dair beklentiler de spek\u00fclasyonlara neden oluyor. Yurt i\u00e7inde siyaset a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 trend ile di\u011fer \u00fclkelerden ayr\u0131\u015fan IMKB\u2019de 592 milyar dolarl\u0131k yabanc\u0131 sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 se\u00e7im sonras\u0131 siyasi-ekonomik belirsizli\u011fin bir g\u00f6stergesi asl\u0131nda. Se\u00e7im sonras\u0131 ilk pazartesi sabah\u0131 oy oranlar\u0131nda normal \u015fartlarda, \u00e7ok b\u00fcy\u00fck bir s\u00fcrpriz olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 taktirde \u00e7ok sert bir sat\u0131\u015fla ba\u015flama ihtimali d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck. Se\u00e7im sonras\u0131 4 senaryo\u2019ya g\u00f6re piyasa fiyatlanabilir.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>1.Senaryo; AK Partinin 367 ve \u00fczeri Milletvekilini Meclise ta\u015f\u0131mas\u0131 \u00fczerine kurulu.Tabi bu durumda Anayasa de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi ve Ba\u015fkanl\u0131k Sistemi gibi bir\u00e7ok alanda yap\u0131lacak reformlar i\u00e7in gerekli say\u0131sal \u00fcst\u00fcnl\u00fck elde edecektir. Yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131nda da \u015fartlar\u0131n ayn\u0131 kalmas\u0131 durumunda faizlerin %8\u2019ler seviyesine inmesi IMKB\u2019nin ise 73.000 seviyelerini zorlamas\u0131 ve dolar\u0131n 1.40\u2019lar seviyesine beklenir.<\/p>\n

2.Senaryo; Se\u00e7im sonras\u0131 AK Partinin 330 civar\u0131 Milletvekili ile mecliste yer almas\u0131da siyasi istikrar \u00e7er\u00e7everinde de\u011ferlendirilip borsay\u0131 68.000 seviyelerine ta\u015f\u0131yacak ,faizlerin \u015fuan ki seviyelerini koruyacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n

3.Senaryo; S\u00fcpriz say\u0131labilecek bir geli\u015fme ,Anayasa de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi i\u00e7in uzla\u015fma teorisini g\u00fc\u00e7lendiren bir Meclis g\u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fcs\u00fc \u015feklinde olur . AKP-CHP,AKP-MHP,AKP-BDP ittifak\u0131 ile piyasalar\u0131n bekledi\u011fi ekonomik reformlar\u0131n gecikmesi endi\u015feleri IMKB\u2019nin yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan pozitif ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcne ge\u00e7ecek ve borsaya sat\u0131\u015f getirecektir. USD\/TRY paritesinin h\u0131zl\u0131ca 1.65 seviyesini g\u00f6rmesi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 olur.<\/p>\n

4.Senaryo; Koalisyon h\u00fck\u00fcmeti,hi\u00e7bir ankette g\u00f6r\u00fclmeyen ve sonu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclmeyen bir sonu\u00e7 olur. Koalisyon h\u00fck\u00fcmeti yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131ya 90\u2019l\u0131 y\u0131llar\u0131 hat\u0131rlatacak ve bu senaryodaki AKP-CHP koalisyonunun ekonomik istikrar\u0131 bozaca\u011f\u0131 ihtimali ile borsay\u0131 2.5 cente indirmeye yetebilecektir bu beklenilmeyen senaryoda dolar kuru 1.80 ve faizler en az %12 civar\u0131.<\/p>\n

ABD cephesinde ise ge\u00e7en hafta a\u00e7\u0131klanan tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam verilerinin beklentilerin olduk\u00e7a alt\u0131nda kalmas\u0131 sebebiyle 5. haftay\u0131 da d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle kapatan ABD piyasalar\u0131ndan IMKB ayr\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015f durumda. FED\u2019in bundan sonraki d\u00f6nemde nas\u0131l bir politika izleyece\u011fine y\u00f6nelik a\u00e7\u0131klamalar, yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131 piyasalar\u0131n ana g\u00fcndem maddesini olu\u015fturacak. 3. Niceliksel gev\u015feme gelip gelmeyece\u011fine dair a\u00e7\u0131klamalar ile QE3 gelmemesi halinde piyasalar\u0131n tepkisinin ne olaca\u011f\u0131na dair beklentiler ve yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n bu beklentilere g\u00f6re ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 pozisyonlar volatiliteyi artt\u0131ran bir etken.<\/p>\n

Genel g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f<\/p>\n

QE3\u00b4\u00fcn k\u0131sa vade i\u00e7in piyasay\u0131 daha y\u00fckse\u011fe g\u00f6t\u00fcrece\u011fini ama QE3\u00b4\u00fcn uygulamaya konmas\u0131 halinde ay\u0131 piyasas\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015flang\u0131c\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131na dair fikir a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kta. Pimco CEO\u00b4su Muhammed El-Erian\u2019\u0131n ABD verilerinin ard\u0131ndan ekonominin \u00e7\u0131kmaza girdi\u011fini teyit etti\u011fini ,di\u011fer \u00fclke ekonomilerinde de benzer durumun s\u00f6z konusu oldu\u011funu artan enflasyon bask\u0131lar\u0131 nedeniyle h\u00fck\u00fcmetlerin tasarrufa y\u00f6neldiklerini ve bu durumun ekonomilerde yava\u015flama ve daralmaya yol a\u00e7aca\u011f\u0131na dair a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131na hak vermemek elde de\u011fil .Kredi derecelendirme kurulu\u015fu Moody\u00b4s, ABD\u00b4nin kredi notunu izlemeye ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair haberlerde g\u00fcndemdeki yerini koruyor.<\/p>\n

Moody\u00b4s, Washington\u00b4da b\u00fct\u00e7e g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri konusunda Temmuz ortas\u0131na kadar ciddi bir ilerleme kaydedilmezse ABD\u00b4nin AAA olan kredi notunu olas\u0131 bir indirim i\u00e7in izlemeye alaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ,\u00fclkenin temerr\u00fcde d\u00fc\u015fme riski oldu\u011funu belirtmi\u015fti. Asl\u0131nda genel g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fte bu y\u00f6nde; keza piyasalardaki sert d\u00fczeltmenin sonlar\u0131na yakla\u015f\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair ciddi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fler var. D\u00fcnya ekonomisinde ya\u015fanan b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc piyasalar taraf\u0131ndan b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde fiyatland\u0131 ama ABD\u2019de hi\u00e7bir sorun \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclm\u00fc\u015f de\u011fil QE3 s\u0131nav\u0131ndan hasars\u0131z ge\u00e7mesi imkans\u0131z.<\/p>\n

\u00d6mer DEM\u0130R<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

NationalT\u00fcrk yorumcular\u0131m\u0131zdan Ekonomi ve Borsa uzman\u0131 \u00d6mer Demir \u2018in Senaryo adl\u0131 makalesini sizlerle payla\u015f\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":9192212,"featured_media":71641,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[6199,5005],"tags":[12298,57196,52145,64648,72232,71564],"class_list":["post-71637","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ekonomi","category-manset","tag-butce-gorusmeleri","tag-moody","tag-secim","tag-secim-ekonomi","tag-senaryo","tag-turkiye-secim"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/71637","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/9192212"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=71637"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/71637\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/71641"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=71637"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=71637"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=71637"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}