{"id":74990,"date":"2011-07-07T13:58:15","date_gmt":"2011-07-07T10:58:15","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/?p=74990"},"modified":"2019-03-28T11:30:31","modified_gmt":"2019-03-28T08:30:31","slug":"yunanistan-temerrud-74990","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/yunanistan-temerrud-74990\/","title":{"rendered":"Yunanistan ve Temerr\u00fcd"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"<\/a><\/h2>\n

NationalT\u00fcrk yorumcular\u0131m\u0131zdan Ekonomi ve Borsa uzman\u0131 \u00d6mer Demir \u2018in, bu haftaki \u201cYunanistan ve Temerr\u00fcd\u201d adl\u0131 makalesini sizlerle payla\u015f\u0131yoruz.<\/h2>\n

Yunanistan ve Temerr\u00fcd<\/h2>\n

1821 y\u0131l\u0131nda Osmanl\u0131 Devletine kar\u015f\u0131 ba\u015flatt\u0131\u011f\u0131 isyan ile 1832 \u2018de ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 kazanan Yunanistan\u2019\u0131n, \u00fclkesinde \u00e7\u0131kan son ayaklanmaya kadar ki aradan ge\u00e7en 179 y\u0131lda y\u00f6netim de bazen krall\u0131k,bazen cunta ve bazen de demokrasi dese de bir t\u00fcrl\u00fc istikrar diyememi\u015f, \u00fclke ekonomisinin tarihi de ya temerr\u00fcdler ya da bor\u00e7lar\u0131n yeniden yap\u0131land\u0131rmas\u0131 ile ge\u00e7mi\u015f. 4 Temmuz\u2019da ,kredi derecelendirme kurulu\u015fu Standard&Poor\u2019s’un, Yunanistan krizinin,bitti bitiyor umutlar\u0131na yeni bir bak\u0131\u015f getirerek yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n Yunanistan\u2019da g\u00f6n\u00fcll\u00fc yap\u0131land\u0131rmaya gitmesinin \u201cse\u00e7ici temerr\u00fct\u201d olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ifade eden a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 riskleri yine g\u00f6zler \u00f6n\u00fcne serdi. Standard&Poor\u2019s un a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131 ge\u00e7en haftaya damgas\u0131n\u0131 vurmu\u015f olan Frans\u0131z Bankalar Birli\u011fi ile AB aras\u0131nda var\u0131lan destek \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n\u0131n olumlu sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 beklenirken S&P\u2019nin tahvil de\u011fi\u015fimi sonras\u0131 temerr\u00fct notunu kald\u0131r\u0131p \u00fclkenin genel g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcne g\u00f6re yeni bir kredi notu belirleyebilece\u011fine dair a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 Yunanistan\u2019a ili\u015fkin yeni f\u0131rt\u0131nalar\u0131n habercisi olabilir.<\/p>\n

Ekonomi ge\u00e7mi\u015fi bu kadar \u00e7alkant\u0131l\u0131 olan bir \u00fclke nas\u0131l Euro B\u00f6lgesinde?<\/h2>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

\u00d6ncelikle bulundu\u011fu konum itibar\u0131yle Yunanistan pekala birli\u011fe al\u0131nmal\u0131yd\u0131,ortak din anlay\u0131\u015f\u0131,Avrupa Birli\u011finin Yunanistan\u2019\u0131 t\u00fcketici pazar\u0131 olarak g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc ve tarihteki Yunan medeniyetlerinin Avrupa\u2019ya katk\u0131s\u0131 AB \u2018yi Yunanistan\u2019a vefa borcu \u00f6demeye itti denebilir. 1981\u2019 de AB\u2019ye ilk ad\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 att\u0131\u011f\u0131nda da ayn\u0131 tart\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131 ya\u015fayan AB\u2019de,Euro\u2019ya ge\u00e7i\u015f s\u00fcrecine kadar bu soru i\u015faretleri hep vard\u0131. Yunanistan enflasyonun uzun bir ge\u00e7mi\u015fi vard\u0131. 1981\u2019de % 20 gibi y\u00fcksek bir enflasyonla m\u00fccadele etmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131. 1990\u2032l\u0131 y\u0131llarda b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n GSY\u0130H\u2019a oran\u0131 % 16\u2019ya y\u00fckseldi, \u00f6denmemi\u015f bor\u00e7lar\u0131n GSY\u0130H\u2019e % 100 \u2018\u00fc ge\u00e7mi\u015fti. 1999 ve 2001 y\u0131llar\u0131 aras\u0131nda Yunanistan\u2019da gizemli ve nas\u0131l oldu\u011fu a\u00e7\u0131klanamayacak bir \u015fekilde b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 tahmin edilen %12.5 den %5\u2019in alt\u0131na d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc, enflasyon ise sadece % 1 oldu,faiz oranlar\u0131 % 8,75\u2019den % 3,75 seviyesine indi. Homurdanan \u00fcye \u00fclkeler ve Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 da veriler kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda yumu\u015fayarak ,2000 y\u0131l\u0131nda Yunanistan\u2019\u0131n AB\u2019nin 12. \u00dcyesi olmas\u0131na izin verdi. Ama iddialara g\u00f6re Maastricht Anla\u015fmas\u0131\u2019nda belirlenen kriterler de\u011ferlendirilirken\u2019\u2019 b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131klar\u0131\u2019\u2019 hep gizlendi, Yunanistan 2003\u2019de Drahmi\u2019den Euro\u2019ya ge\u00e7i\u015f i\u00e7in gerekli kriterleri yerine getirmedi ve parasal birli\u011fe haz\u0131r olmadan, sadece rakamlarla oynayarak, hile yaparak girdi. Yunanistan, Euro birli\u011fine girme s\u00fcrecinde, o d\u00f6nem CEO\u2019lu\u011funu eski ABD Hazine Bakan\u0131 Henry Paulson yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00fcnl\u00fc ABD\u2019li yat\u0131r\u0131m bankas\u0131 Goldman Sachs\u2019la beraber yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 sahtek\u00e2rl\u0131kta g\u00fcndemdeki yerini alm\u0131\u015ft\u0131.Veriler sadece hayal mahs\u00fcl\u00fcyd\u00fc, mesela askeri ve sosyal g\u00fcvenlik harcamalar\u0131 gizli tutulmu\u015ftu. AB denetleyicileri ,Yunan istatistikleri inceledi ve \u2018\u2019ciddi usuls\u00fczl\u00fckler \u201cbuldu.AB ,Yunanistan\u2019\u0131 yasal i\u015flem ve cezalar ile tehdit etti ama sonu\u00e7ta AB ilk kez kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 bu durum kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda i\u015flem yapmad\u0131.<\/p>\n

Krizin sorumlusu T\u00fcrkiye!<\/h3>\n

AB\u2019ye g\u00f6re 2008\u2019den beri ekonomik gidi\u015fat\u0131 ayyuka \u00e7\u0131kan \u00fclkenin ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131 krizin belli-ba\u015fl\u0131 nedeni olarak kamunun hesaps\u0131zca yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 harcamalar g\u00f6sterilmektedir.\u201dT\u00fcrk tehdidi\u201d odakl\u0131 savunma mekanizmas\u0131 olarak geli\u015ftirilen harcamalar\u0131n \u00f6nemli bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc askeri harcama kategorisinde ki milyarlarca dolarl\u0131k silah,sava\u015f u\u00e7aklar\u0131,sava\u015f helikopterleri ve y\u00fcksek mebla\u011fl\u0131 askeri donat\u0131mdan olu\u015fuyor.Hat\u0131rlarsan\u0131z ge\u00e7en y\u0131l, Yunan H\u0131ristiyan Demokrat vekil Georgios Koumoutsakos Yunan krizin bahanesi olarak T\u00fcrkiye\u2019yi g\u00f6stermi\u015f \u201cYunanistan ekonomik kriz i\u00e7inde olmas\u0131n\u0131n bir sebebi de askeri harcamalard\u0131r, Yunan h\u00fck\u00fcmeti T\u00fcrkiye\u2019den gelen tehdit \u00fczerine T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye kar\u015f\u0131 silah almak zorunda kald\u0131\u201d iddias\u0131nda bulunmu\u015ftu.<\/p>\n

Euro\u2019ya ge\u00e7i\u015f ve rehavet !<\/h3>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/h3>\n

Yunanistan Euro\u2019ya giri\u015fte sarfetti\u011fi haks\u0131z \u00e7abaya ra\u011fmen bu a\u00e7\u0131klar\u0131 kapat\u0131c\u0131 \u00f6nlemler almamaya devam etmi\u015f,hatta daha da a\u00e7\u0131lm\u0131\u015f. \u0130ktisadi Kalkinma ve \u0130\u015fbirligi \u00d6rg\u00fct\u00fc(OECD)ne g\u00f6re 2001 ile 2008 y\u0131llar\u0131 aras\u0131nda sanayi sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde saat ba\u015f\u0131na \u00e7al\u0131\u015fanlara \u00f6denen \u00fccretler % 64 oran\u0131nda artm\u0131\u015f. 27 \u00fclkeden olu\u015fan toplulukta hi\u00e7bir \u00fclkede bu oran\u0131 g\u00f6rmek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn de\u011fil.\u00d6rne\u011fin; Finlandiya\u2019da ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemde saaylik \u00fccretler %27,Fransa\u2019da %26,Almanya\u2019da %15,\u0130talya\u2019da %24,\u0130spanya\u2019da %37, \u0130rlanda %40, Polonya\u2019da %31 seviyesinde kalm\u0131\u015f benzer oranlar\u0131 yine genel kabul g\u00f6rm\u00fc\u015f tarafs\u0131z OECD\u2019nin birim i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc maliyetleri analizi,birim i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc girdi maliyetleri,birim i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc i\u015f tazminat\u0131,\u00e7al\u0131\u015fan i\u015f telafisi gibi bir \u00e7ok veride g\u00f6rmek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn. Dikkat \u00e7ekici bir istatistikte yine sanayi sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde par\u00e7a ba\u015f\u0131na \u00f6denen \u00fccret rakamlar\u0131 analizidir. AB\u2019nin amiral gemisi Almanya\u2019da par\u00e7a ba\u015f\u0131na \u00fcretim maa\u015f\u0131 2000-2008 aras\u0131nda %0.5 d\u00fc\u015ferken ,Fransa\u2019da %5,\u0130talya\u2019da %23,Hollanda\u2019da %3,\u0130spanya\u2019da %20,Bel\u00e7ika\u2019da %12 art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6stemi\u015f,<\/p>\n

Yunanistan\u2019da ise bu oran %56 olmu\u015f. \u0130\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc ba\u015f\u0131na \u00fcretimi yani verimlili\u011fi artt\u0131rmazken i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc ba\u015f\u0131na maa\u015f\u0131 artt\u0131ran \u00fclke konumunda olmu\u015f,i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc verimlik oranlar\u0131nda bu fikri destekliyor.Yunanistan h\u00fck\u00fcmeti uzunca bir s\u00fcre halk\u0131n tepkisini para ile susturmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015f k\u0131saca ,art\u0131k bu mermiyide t\u00fcketince hatta vergi ve kesinti haberleri de \u00e7\u0131k\u0131nca halk isyana kalk\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015f olabilir.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/h3>\n

Yunanistan\u2019\u0131n Toplam Borcu<\/h4>\n

AB i\u00e7inde ortak para politikas\u0131 uygulan\u0131\u015f\u0131, faiz ve kur seviyelerinin tek bir merkezden y\u00f6netilirken ,her \u00fclkenin b\u00fct\u00e7e ve maliye politikasinin var olu\u015fu b\u00f6ylesi durumlarda bor\u00e7 krizi y\u00f6netimini imkans\u0131zla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor elini kolunu ba\u011fl\u0131yor ne para bas\u0131p deval\u00fcasyon yapabiliyor ne de ba\u015fka reform \u00f6nlemleri. Yunanistan\u2019\u0131n bor\u00e7 ayr\u0131nt\u0131lar\u0131da belli oluyor.En b\u00fcy\u00fck alacakl\u0131 konumunda 49 milyar euro ile Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131,Avrupa Birli\u011fi kredileri 38 milyar euro,Kamu sekt\u00f6r\u00fc fonlar\u0131 30 milyar euro,D\u00fcnyan\u0131n geri kalan\u0131ndaki resmi kurumlar 25 milyar euro,IMF kredileri 15 milyar euro,Ulusal Yunanistan bankalar\u0131 ve Euro merkez bankalar\u0131 26.8 milyar euro,Frans\u0131z Bankalar\u0131 15.6 milyar euro,Alman Bankalar\u0131 15.2 milyar euro,Di\u011fer kurulu\u015flar 109.1 milyar euro,Yunan Bankalar\u0131 40.1 milyar euro olarak kay\u0131tlara ge\u00e7mi\u015f.<\/p>\n

Yunanistan\u2019\u0131n bor\u00e7lar\u0131 o kadar b\u00fcy\u00fck ki bunlar\u0131n tamam\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6demesi neredeyse imkans\u0131z .Borcunu \u00f6dese bile AB yasalar\u0131na g\u00f6re halihaz\u0131rdaki borcunu milli gelire oran\u0131n\u0131n %60 \u2018\u0131na \u00e7ekebilmesi 30-40 y\u0131l al\u0131yor. Ayr\u0131ca \u00fclkenin borcunun \u00f6nemli bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fcn Yunan bankalar\u0131na ait olu\u015fu ve bor\u00e7lar \u00f6denmezse bu bankalar\u0131n iflas\u0131na neden olabilece\u011fi i\u00e7in k\u00fcresel krize bula\u015fma ihtimali var. \u0130\u015fte bu y\u00fczden Avrupa Birli\u011fi, kendi \u00e7\u0131karlar\u0131 i\u00e7in, Yunanistan\u2019\u0131n bor\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6demesi i\u00e7in elinden geleni yapmak zorunda.<\/p>\n

\u00d6mer DEM\u0130R<\/strong><\/p>\n\n


\n<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Yunanistan ve Temerr\u00fcd. NationalT\u00fcrk yorumcular\u0131m\u0131zdan Ekonomi ve Borsa uzman\u0131 \u00d6mer Demir \u2018in, bu haftaki \u201cYunanistan ve Temerr\u00fcd\u201d adl\u0131 makalesini sizlerle payla\u015f\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":9192212,"featured_media":188694,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[6199,5005],"tags":[1719,66226,10463,195988,1202,74867],"class_list":["post-74990","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ekonomi","category-manset","tag-avrupa-birligi","tag-avrupa-merkez-bankasi","tag-merkez-bankasi","tag-omer-demir","tag-yunanistan","tag-yunanistan-borclari"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/74990","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/9192212"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=74990"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/74990\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/188694"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=74990"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=74990"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=74990"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}