{"id":75710,"date":"2011-07-13T20:12:17","date_gmt":"2011-07-13T17:12:17","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/?p=75710"},"modified":"2022-09-11T15:39:27","modified_gmt":"2022-09-11T12:39:27","slug":"hem-firtina-hem-liman-2469","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/hem-firtina-hem-liman-2469\/","title":{"rendered":"Hem F\u0131rt\u0131na, Hem Liman"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"<\/a>NationalT\u00fcrk yorumcular\u0131m\u0131zdan Ekonomi ve Borsa uzman\u0131 \u00d6mer Demir \u2018in, bu haftaki \u201cHem F\u0131rt\u0131na , Hem Liman\u201d adl\u0131 makalesini sizlerle payla\u015f\u0131yoruz.<\/h3>\n

Alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131 son bir haftada, \u0130talya\u2019da \u00a0faizlerin son 14 y\u0131l\u0131n zirvesine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131,Portekiz ve \u0130rlanda\u2019ya ait not\u2019un \u00e7\u00f6p seviyesine indirilmesi ile Yunanistan\u2019a ait temerr\u00fcd endi\u015feleri ve ayn\u0131 sorunlar\u0131n PIIGS \u00fcyesi di\u011fer\u00a0 \u00fclkelere de s\u0131\u00e7rayabilece\u011fi endi\u015felerine ilave olarak 2 A\u011fustos tarihinde ABD\u2019ye ait bor\u00e7 tavan\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fckselmeyece\u011fine dair olumsuz kayg\u0131lar sonucu ABD\u2019nin tarihinde ilk kez temerr\u00fcde d\u00fc\u015fme riskinin var olu\u015fu, k\u00fcresel ekonomide yava\u015flama i\u015faretleriyle birlikte % 4.5 y\u00fckseldi.<\/p>\n

Alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n 1920\u2019lerden bu yana en iyi performans\u0131 ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fczde ,genel g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f uzun vadeli trendin yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc devam edece\u011fi y\u00f6n\u00fcnde.Dolar,Euro ve belli ba\u015fl\u0131 para birimlerinde g\u00f6r\u00fclen faiz oranlar\u0131ndaki gerilemeler alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fckseli\u015fini destekliyor.\u00a0 Korku ve risk endeksi olarak bilinen VIX endeksi, iki g\u00fcnde %15 y\u00fckselerek g\u00fcn\u00fc 20 puan seviyelerinden kapatarak endi\u015feleri bir bak\u0131ma g\u00f6zler \u00f6n\u00fcne serdi. VIX (volatility index), Chicago Opsiyon Borsas\u0131\u2019nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor ve Standart & Poor’s 500 hisse opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 kullan\u0131larak elde edilen fiyatlar\u0131n, opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n piyasa volatilitesi ile ili\u015fkisinden yola \u00e7\u0131karak, piyasan\u0131n “beklenen volatilitesi”ni \u00f6l\u00e7erek de\u011ferlendiriyor. 2008 ABD mortgage krizi s\u0131ras\u0131nda 2 ay \u00f6ncesinin fiyat\u0131na g\u00f6re fiyat\u0131n\u0131 %300 oran\u0131nda artt\u0131ran VIX endeksi 80 puan seviyelerine ula\u015farak zirve yapm\u0131\u015f QE1-QE2 parasal geni\u015flemelerin ard\u0131ndan 10 puan seviyelerine inmi\u015fti. VIX Endeksi’nin s\u00fcrekli y\u00fckseli\u015f trendine girmesi de alt\u0131n\u0131n ons\u2019unu tetikleyen bir fakt\u00f6r,keza VIX\u2019 in y\u00fckseli\u015fe ge\u00e7mesi yeni bir bunal\u0131m\u0131n habercisi olmu\u015ftur. Ge\u00e7en hafta alt\u0131n\/ons\u2019un 1550 seviyelerinden\u00a0 1480 seviyelerine sadece birka\u00e7 g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fc ,bu oynakl\u0131k i\u00e7inde en uygun al\u0131m f\u0131rsat\u0131n\u0131 bekleyen yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131y\u0131 \u00e7ekimser yap\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

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Rezerv para fakt\u00f6r\u00fc<\/strong><\/p>\n

D\u00fcnyada rezerv para tarihinde Portekiz\u00a0(1450-1530), \u0130spanya\u00a0(1530-1640),\u00a0Hollanda\u00a0(1640-1720), Fransa\u00a0(1720-1815)\u00a0ve \u0130ngiltere\u00a0(1815-1920)\u00a0den sonra alt\u0131n standard\u0131 na ge\u00e7ilmi\u015f ve ard\u0131ndan Dolar rezerv para Kabul edilmi\u015ftir. Tarihte rezerv paralar\u0131n ortalama \u00f6mr\u00fcn\u00fcn 90 ile y\u0131l 100 y\u0131l oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.Her ne kadar 1970 lere kadar d\u00fcnyada h\u00fck\u00fcm s\u00fcren \u2018\u2019alt\u0131n para\u2019\u2019 kavram\u0131n\u0131n k\u0131sa vadede m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olmamas\u0131 ABD Dolar\u2019\u0131n\u0131n hala rezerv para birimi olarak varl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesi ve ge\u00e7en hafta \u00c7in\u2019in, Temmuz 2008\u2019den bu yana ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdi\u011fi h\u0131zl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme ivmesinin sonucu a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 \u0131s\u0131nan ekonomisini so\u011futmak i\u00e7in Ekim 2011 ay\u0131ndan bu yana 5.kez\u00a0 faizleri 25 baz puan art\u0131rarak %3.5’a \u00e7\u0131karmas\u0131 alt\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fckseli\u015fini frenlese de, ABD H\u00fck\u00fcmeti\u2019nin Ba\u015fkan Obama\u2019n\u0131n da bask\u0131s\u0131na ra\u011fmen ,2 A\u011fustos\u2019a kadar bor\u00e7 tavan\u0131n tekrar y\u00fckseltilmesi ile ilgili ABD Kongresinden gerekli deste\u011fi alam\u0131yor olu\u015fu piyasalar\u0131n alt\u0131n alarak temerr\u00fcde d\u00fc\u015fme riski fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.\u00c7in\u2019in faiz hamlesine FED kulak t\u0131kasada Alt\u0131n\u2019\u0131n faiz oranlar\u0131 ile olan ili\u015fkisini a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki grafik \u00f6zetliyor.1980- 1990 y\u0131llar\u0131 aras\u0131 y\u00fckselen faiz oranlar\u0131 sayesinde alt\u0131n, reel faiz oranlar\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k % 4 seviyelerinde iken uzunca bir s\u00fcre ay\u0131 piyasas\u0131nda kalm\u0131\u015f.<\/p>\n

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F\u0130Z\u0130KSEL TALEP,YATIRIM TALEB\u0130 VE MERKEZ BANKALARI\u2019NIN TALEPLER\u0130<\/strong><\/p>\n

ABD\u2019nin temerr\u00fcd riski devam ederken dolar pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 azaltan fon y\u00f6neticilerinin, kar amac\u0131 g\u00fctmeyen kurulu\u015flar\u0131n,emeklilik fonlar\u0131n\u0131n, T\u00fcrkiye,Suudi Arabistan yaz mevsimi tak\u0131 talebinin,ard\u0131ndan eyl\u00fcl – ekim aylar\u0131nda Hindistan\u2019da d\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn sezonunun a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131 ve az da olsa sanayi kurulu\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n\u00a0\u00a0 portf\u00f6y\u00fcndeki alt\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrekli artt\u0131rmalar\u0131 alt\u0131n\u0131n onsunun 2 ay once g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc 1577 dolar seviyelerini tekrar zorlamas\u0131na neden oluyor. D\u00fcnya Alt\u0131n Konseyi’ne g\u00f6re,alt\u0131n tak\u0131 talebi, ge\u00e7en y\u0131la g\u00f6re % 10 art\u0131\u015f kaydetmi\u015f.\u00a0\u00d6nceki y\u0131la g\u00f6re toplam talep % 35 oran\u0131nda art\u0131\u015f kaydetmesi yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n alt\u0131n fonlar\u0131 yerine fiziki alt\u0131n tutmay\u0131 tercih ettiklerinin g\u00f6stergesi. M\u00fccevher talebinde b\u00fcy\u00fck pasta 746 ton Hindistan\u2019a ait ,Hindistan\u2019\u0131 400 ton ile \u00c7in izliyor. \u00c7in\u2019in yat\u0131r\u0131m talebi ise 90.9 ton olmu\u015f. Merkez Bankalar\u0131n\u0131n talepleri ise zaman i\u00e7inde de\u011fi\u015fiklik g\u00f6stermi\u015f .1940 ve\u00a01950’li y\u0131llarda\u00a0d\u00fcnya\u00a0\u00e7ap\u0131nda\u00a0Merkez Bankas\u0131\u00a0rezervlerinin neredeyse % 70\u2019ini alt\u0131n tutar\u00a0iken,\u00a0bu oran\u00a0 \u015fimdilerde sadece % 10\u2019lara \u00a0d\u00fc\u015fm\u00fc\u015f\u00a0durumda. Bu\u00a0d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f d\u00f6viz\u00a0rezervlerinde b\u00fcy\u00fck art\u0131\u015f\u00a0nedeniyle\u00a0ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti.<\/p>\n

\u00c7in,Kore,\u00a0Japonya,\u00a0Brezilya,\u00a0ve Singapur\u00a0devasa\u00a0d\u00f6viz\u00a0pozisyonlar\u0131\u00a0ta\u015f\u0131yan \u00fclkeler aras\u0131nda.Alt\u0131n pozisyonunda MB\u2019lar\u0131n\u0131n \u00a0ki\u015fi ba\u015f\u0131na d\u00fc\u015fen alt\u0131n miktar\u0131 grafi\u011fi a\u015fa\u011f\u0131da;<\/strong><\/p>\n

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\n<\/strong><\/p>\n

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Emtia cephesinden bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ise alt\u0131n\u0131n g\u00f6sterdi\u011fi y\u00fcksek getiri oran\u0131n\u0131 di\u011fer metallerde g\u00f6rmek imkans\u0131z. Bu durum alt\u0131n\u0131n fiziki talep harici dolardan ka\u00e7\u0131\u015ftaki g\u00fcvenli liman \u00f6zelli\u011finin yans\u0131mas\u0131. Alt\u0131n ile uzun s\u00fcre beraber hareket eden petrol ile de kolerasyon bozuldu.<\/p>\n

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\u00dcRET\u0130M MAL\u0130YETLER\u0130NDEK\u0130 ARTI\u015e<\/strong><\/p>\n

D\u00fcnyan\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck alt\u0131n \u00fcreticisi konumundaki \u00fclkeler i\u00e7inde ilk s\u0131rada %11.7 lik pay ile \u00c7in yer al\u0131yor,\u00c7in\u2019i %8.7 ile Avusturalya,%7.5 ile ABD,%6.6 ile Rusya,%6.2 ile G\u00fcney Afrika,%5.4 ile Peru,%3.3 ile Endonezya,%3 ile Kanada,%2.8 ile Gana ve %2.6 ile \u00d6zbekistan izliyor. Alt\u0131n \u00fcreticisi \u00fclkeler girdi maliyetlerinden enerji ve insan g\u00fcc\u00fc maliyetlerine kadar kadar t\u00fcm giderlerini maliyetlere yans\u0131t\u0131yorlar,\u00a0ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u00a0 ABN\u00a0Alt\u0131n Madeni\u00a0Raporu’na\u00a0g\u00f6re\u00a0\u00a0alt\u0131n\u0131n\u00a0 \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lma maliyeti 558 dolar \/ons\u00a0iken \u00fcretici \u00fclkeler ,bu y\u0131l insan g\u00fcc\u00fc,petrol,siyan\u00fcr,patlay\u0131c\u0131 may\u0131n ve\u00a0\u00e7e\u015fitli kimyasal\u00a0\u00fcr\u00fcnlerin\u00a0fiyatlar\u0131nda art\u0131\u015fa ilave olarak ke\u015fif, sermaye, y\u00f6netim,\u00a0telif haklar\u0131 maliyetlerinideki art\u0131\u015f\u0131 g\u00f6stererek bu y\u0131l 1100 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde maliyet a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131lar.<\/p>\n

\u0130\u015fte bu perspektiflerden bak\u0131nca genel kan\u0131, alt\u0131n mevduat\u0131 taraf\u0131nda y\u00fckseli\u015fin devam edece\u011fi y\u00f6n\u00fcnde. Alt\u0131n tabiki eninde sonunda d\u00fc\u015fecek ama bunun i\u00e7in d\u00fcnyada 2008 ve \u00f6ncesi faiz oranlar\u0131na d\u00f6nmesi \u015fart . FED taraf\u0131ndan parasal s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmaya dair bir haber ya da Faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131n da y\u0131l sonundan \u00f6nce y\u00fckselmeyece\u011fi ger\u00e7e\u011fi ortadayken ,y\u0131lsonuna kadar alt\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fmesini beklememek gerek. Tabi uzun vadeli fonlaran da uzak durmak, \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc 1980\u2019li y\u0131llarda\u00a0 alt\u0131n alan ki\u015filer,ellerinde ki alt\u0131n\u0131 ayn\u0131 rakamdan satmak i\u00e7in\u00a0 27 y\u0131l beklemi\u015flerdi.<\/p>\n

\u00d6MER DEM\u0130R<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

NationalT\u00fcrk yorumcular\u0131m\u0131zdan Ekonomi ve Borsa uzman\u0131 \u00d6mer Demir \u2018in, bu haftaki \u201cHem F\u0131rt\u0131na , Hem Liman\u201d adl\u0131 makalesini sizlerle payla\u015f\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":9192212,"featured_media":188606,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5005,220816],"tags":[57457,75350,75303,7595,195946,75347,75348,863,195988],"class_list":["post-75710","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-manset","category-uzak-dogu","tag-altin","tag-altin-ekonomisi","tag-altin-fiyatlari","tag-cin-ekonomisi","tag-ekonomi","tag-hem-firtina","tag-hem-liman","tag-japonya","tag-omer-demir"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/75710","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/9192212"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=75710"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/75710\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/188606"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=75710"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=75710"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=75710"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}