{"id":76445,"date":"2011-07-20T14:41:32","date_gmt":"2011-07-20T11:41:32","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/?p=76445"},"modified":"2019-03-28T11:30:30","modified_gmt":"2019-03-28T08:30:30","slug":"gold-lovers-76445","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/gold-lovers-76445\/","title":{"rendered":"Gold Lovers"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"<\/a><\/h2>\n

NationalT\u00fcrk yorumcular\u0131m\u0131zdan Ekonomi ve Borsa uzman\u0131 \u00d6mer Demir \u2018in, bu haftaki \u201cGold Lovers\u201d adl\u0131 makalesini sizlerle payla\u015f\u0131yoruz.<\/h2>\n

ABD’de Ba\u015fkan Obama’n\u0131n t\u00fcm bask\u0131lar\u0131na ra\u011fmen, bor\u00e7lanma tavan\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fckseltilmesi konusunda m\u00fczakere eden Kongre’nin Demokrat ve Cumhuriyet\u00e7i kanatlar\u0131n\u0131n uzla\u015fma sa\u011flayamamas\u0131n\u0131n ve 2 A\u011fustos’ta ABD’nin bor\u00e7 \u00f6deyememe durumuna d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcp AAA olan kredi notunun ,haftalard\u0131r homurdanan kredi derecelendirme kurulu\u015flar\u0131nca d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrme ihtimalinin piyasalara verdi\u011fi
\ntedirginlik,alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131nda yeni zirvelerin g\u00f6r\u00fclmesine neden oldu.<\/p>\n

Cumhuriyetciler, 4 Trilyon dolar tasaruf isterken bor\u00e7lanma tavan\u0131nnda anlasmak i\u00e7in, ABD se\u00e7imlerine az bir zaman kala Obama’n\u0131n vergi artt\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 teklifinede s\u0131cak bakm\u0131yorlar. Bug\u00fcn g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fclen b\u00fct\u00e7e tasar\u0131s\u0131na g\u00f6re gelecek 10 y\u0131l i\u00e7inde 3,75 trilyon dolarl\u0131k harcama kesintisi ve 1,2 trilyon dolarl\u0131k yeni gelirler ve 1,5 trilyon dolarl\u0131k vergi kesintisi tasarlan\u0131yor. Yeni bir parasal geni\u015fleme QE3 m\u00fc olur? yoksa eski parasal geni\u015flemenin devam\u0131 QE2 bu\u00e7ukmu? olur bilinmez ama ABD \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcms\u00fczl\u00fc\u011fe do\u011fru yol al\u0131yor. Daha \u00f6nceki b\u00fcltenlerimde de belirtti\u011fim gibi alt\u0131ndaki y\u00fckseli\u015fin temel sebebi ,ABD’nin muhtemelen d\u00fc\u015fece\u011fi temerr\u00fcd senaryosu ile Avrupa’da PIIGS sorunlar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda Dolar ve di\u011fer ka\u011f\u0131t paralara kar\u015f\u0131 olan g\u00fcvensizlik. Zira 2 haftadan beri s\u00fcregelen kesintisiz y\u00fckseli\u015f trendi alt\u0131n\u0131 1609 dolar\/ons seviyesi ile ABD ‘nin bor\u00e7 \u00f6demesine 13 g\u00fcn kala alt\u0131n\u0131 zirveye ta\u015f\u0131maya yetti. ABD Dolar’\u0131na olan g\u00fcvensizli\u011fin, alt\u0131ndan sonra yarad\u0131\u011f\u0131 tek para birimi \u0130svi\u00e7re Frank’\u0131.\u0130svi\u00e7re Frank’\u0131 T\u00fcrkiye’de y\u0131lba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana 1.65 ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 seviyesinden %23 getiri yaparak \u015fu an 2.03 seviyelerine y\u00fckseldi. 2010 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131 70,50 liradan kapatan 24 ayar has alt\u0131n fiyat\u0131n\u0131n, ge\u00e7en 7 ayl\u0131k d\u00f6nemde % 22 de\u011fer kazanarak gram\u0131n\u0131n 85,75 lira seviyesini g\u00f6rmesi dolardan ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f\u0131n bir g\u00f6stergesi.<\/p>\n

Merkez Bankalar\u0131 hala ALTIN talep ediyor<\/h2>\n

2011 y\u0131l\u0131nda, \u00fclke Merkez Bankalar\u0131’da kasalar\u0131na alt\u0131n rezervi eklemeye devam etti. Bu arada Uluslararas\u0131 \u00d6demeler Bankas\u0131, Avrupa’da devam eden Avrupa bor\u00e7 krizi boyunca likidite i\u00e7in alt\u0131n kullanmaya devam ticari bankalar\u0131 g\u00f6zlem alt\u0131na al\u0131rken ,kendi alt\u0131n stoklar\u0131n\u0131n istikrarl\u0131 bir \u015fekilde b\u00fcy\u00fcmesini sa\u011flad\u0131. Banco de Mexico, 4 May\u0131s, 2011’de 106 ton alt\u0131n elde etti\u011fini do\u011frulad\u0131. Meksika, bu y\u0131l Ocak ve Nisan aylar\u0131 aras\u0131nda alt\u0131n sat\u0131n alarak Banka’n\u0131n toplam rezervlerinin% 1 -\u00ad-% 4 aras\u0131nda, alt\u0131n ay\u0131rma karar\u0131 alm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Rusya Merkez Bankas\u0131, bu e\u011filime paralel olarak, y\u0131l\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana 41.8 ton sat\u0131n alarak toplam rezervini 830 ton’a \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131..Rusya’n\u0131n 2010 y\u0131l\u0131nda
\nalt\u0131n rezervleri 790 ton olmak \u00fczere toplamda % 23.9 olarak 154 ton artt\u0131. Rusya Merkez Bankas\u0131,gelecekte de y\u0131lda 100 ton alt\u0131n sat\u0131n almak i\u00e7in planlama yap\u0131yor Vladimir Putin, toplam rezervler a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan alt\u0131n\u0131n pay\u0131n\u0131n % 10 artt\u0131rmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini bir kez daha do\u011frulad\u0131. D\u00fcnya Alt\u0131n Konseyi’ne g\u00f6re, y\u0131ll\u0131k \u00fcretim 2010 y\u0131l\u0131nda 2586 ton oldu\u011fu ger\u00e7e\u011fi, arz\u0131n, talebi kar\u015f\u0131lamad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n
\nkan\u0131t\u0131.<\/p>\n

Di\u011fer \u00fclkelere ait toplam rezerv miktar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steren tablo a\u015fa\u011f\u0131dad\u0131r.<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

D\u00fcnya Alt\u0131n Konseyi 2011 temmuz verilerine g\u00f6re kuyumculuk ve m\u00fccevher talebi ge\u00e7en y\u0131la oranla % 4 oran\u0131nda artarken,alt\u0131n\u0131n yat\u0131r\u0131m talebi %51 oran\u0131nda artm\u0131\u015f. 2010 y\u0131l\u0131na yat\u0131r\u0131m talebi ,toplam talebin yakla\u015f\u0131k % 40’\u0131n\u0131 olu\u015ftururken, 2000 y\u0131l\u0131nda yat\u0131r\u0131m talebi, toplam talebin sadece % 4,8 ‘ini olu\u015fturuyordu.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Bir konut ka\u00e7 gram alt\u0131n eder?<\/h3>\n

\u015eu anda ABD’de ortalama bir ev sat\u0131n almak i\u00e7in yakla\u015f\u0131k 173 ons gerekli(1 ons 32 gramd\u0131r).Bu oran,ev ba\u015f\u0131na 800 ons ile 2001’de ki de\u011feri ile kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, yada Mortgage krizinin patlak verdi\u011fi 2008 y\u0131l\u0131ndaki 550 dolar seviyesine g\u00f6re d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olsa bile 1980’lerdeki 100 dolar ons seviyesine ula\u015f\u0131lm\u0131\u015f de\u011fil.<\/p>\n

Hat\u0131rlarsan\u0131z balon denilen emlak fiyatlar\u0131ndaki y\u00fckseli\u015f, k\u0131sa vadeli dolar faizlerinin y\u00fckselmeye ba\u015flamas\u0131yla birlikte 2004 -\u00ad- 2006 d\u00f6neminde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe ge\u00e7mi\u015fti. 2005’den itibaren ,ABD’de “subprime” diye adland\u0131r\u0131lan d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kaliteli mortgage kredilerin art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ve piyasadaki bankalar\u0131n bu kredileri tahvile \u00e7evrilerek sermaye piyasalar\u0131n\u0131 derinle\u015ftiren enstr\u00fcmanlar haline getirmeleri ,1980 ‘li y\u0131llarda ABD’deki mortgage kredilerinin sadece % 10’u tahvile d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrken, 2006 y\u0131l\u0131nda bu oran % 56’ya \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131na neden olmu\u015ftu.<\/p>\n

Akabinde FED’in son iki y\u0131lda(2006-\u00ad-2008) faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131 17 kere artt\u0131rmas\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fken faiz kullanmay\u0131 tercih eden yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 zora sokarak zaman\u0131nda \u00f6deme yapmamalar\u0131na neden olmu\u015ftu. Geciken kredilerin zararlar\u0131 finans kurulu\u015flar\u0131na kesilince ABD’de mortgage yani ipotekli ev kredileri
\ntahvilleri ile ba\u015flayan kriz Avrupa’ya bula\u015fm\u0131\u015f ve likitide krizine d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. T\u00fcrkiye gibi geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkelerde konut fiyatlar\u0131 \/alt\u0131n oran\u0131 ili\u015fkisi yapmak neredeyse imkans\u0131z olsa da ,ABD’de bu de\u011ferler balon konut fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n hala ger\u00e7ek de\u011ferine inmedi\u011fini g\u00f6sterir yada hala
\nalt\u0131n\u0131n ucuz oldu\u011fu fikrini.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

D\u00fcnyada s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclen d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faiz uygulamas\u0131 devam ettik\u00e7e alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fckselmesi \u015fa\u015f\u0131rt\u0131c\u0131 de\u011fil.Keza tersi durumda bile olsa alt\u0131n, faizlerin y\u00fcksek olmas\u0131 dolay\u0131s\u0131yla enflasyon korkular\u0131 i\u00e7inde bulunan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar i\u00e7in g\u00fcvenli liman olmas\u0131 \u00f6zelli\u011finden dolay\u0131 y\u00fckselmeye devam edecek.<\/p>\n

Alt\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrekli durdurulamaz \u015fekilde y\u00fckselmesi ak\u0131llara acaba spek\u00fclasyon mu? Manipilasyon mu? Ihtimalini getiriyor.\u0130ki senaryoda gayet m\u00fcmk\u00fcn. Fakat, ABD bor\u00e7 sorunu \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcl\u00fcnceye kadar alt\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fmesi beklemek hata olur. Bug\u00fcn gelen son haberlerde ya\u015fanan \u00e7\u0131kmaz\u0131 gidermeye de katk\u0131 sa\u011flayabilece\u011fi belirtilen yeni bir b\u00fct\u00e7e plan\u0131 \u00f6nerisi kabul edilmesi fikri bile alt\u0131n\u0131 10 puan geri getirmeye yetti .Hadi bakal\u0131m hay\u0131rl\u0131s\u0131. Son 13 g\u00fcn.<\/p>\n

\u00d6mer DEM\u0130R<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

NationalT\u00fcrk yorumcular\u0131m\u0131zdan Ekonomi ve Borsa uzman\u0131 \u00d6mer Demir \u2018in, bu haftaki \u201cGold Lovers\u201d adl\u0131 makalesini sizlerle payla\u015f\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":9192212,"featured_media":188514,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[6199,5005],"tags":[19708,70747,70751,10463,66223],"class_list":["post-76445","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ekonomi","category-manset","tag-baskan-obama","tag-dunya-altin-konseyi","tag-merkez-bankalari","tag-merkez-bankasi","tag-piigs"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/76445","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/9192212"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=76445"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/76445\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/188514"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=76445"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=76445"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=76445"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}