{"id":78641,"date":"2011-08-10T12:48:00","date_gmt":"2011-08-10T09:48:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/?p=78641"},"modified":"2019-03-28T11:30:28","modified_gmt":"2019-03-28T08:30:28","slug":"kontrolsuz-guc-guc-degildir-4936","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/kontrolsuz-guc-guc-degildir-4936\/","title":{"rendered":"Kontrols\u00fcz g\u00fc\u00e7,g\u00fc\u00e7 de\u011fildir!"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"<\/a><\/h2>\n

NationalT\u00fcrk yorumcular\u0131m\u0131zdan Ekonomi ve Borsa uzman\u0131 \u00d6mer Demir \u2018in, bu haftaki “Kontrols\u00fcz g\u00fc\u00e7,g\u00fc\u00e7 de\u011fildir!” adl\u0131 makalesini sizlerle payla\u015f\u0131yoruz.<\/h2>\n

Avrupa ve ABD’den kaynaklanan bor\u00e7 sorunlar\u0131n\u0131n ayyuka \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131, ABD bor\u00e7 tavan\u0131 tart\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n\u0131n siyasi bir krize d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fc ve S&P’den gelen kredibilite notu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc.<\/p>\n

Piyasalardaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc tetikleyen bir di\u011fer unsur da Asya’dan gelen \u00c7in’e ait y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyon rakam\u0131n\u0131n % 6.5’la son 37 ay\u0131n en y\u00fcksek d\u00fczeyine \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131. \u0130\u015fte hem beklenen hemde ”her \u00f6l\u00fcm erken \u00f6l\u00fcmd\u00fcr” vecizesi gibi bir son. Art\u0131k piyasalar i\u00e7in ne ekonomik ne de kurumsal verilerin bir \u00f6nemi yok, trend de\u011fi\u015fimi ba\u015flad\u0131 ay\u0131 piyasas\u0131 i\u00e7in art\u0131k zemin haz\u0131r. \u0130\u015fte t\u00fcm bu ya\u015fananlar ba\u015fta Avrupa ve ABD olmak \u00fczere, geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkeleri de i\u00e7ine alan t\u00fcm \u00fclkelerin sermaye piyasalar\u0131nda \u015fok d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015flerin ya\u015fanmas\u0131na neden oluyor. ”Nerden d\u00f6ner” tart\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131 konu\u015fula dursun sermaye piyasalar\u0131ndaki ”en iyi yerden al\u0131m” prensibi niye \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmayacak.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

S&P NEDEN BU KARARI ALDI?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Nisan ay\u0131ndan bu yana piyasalar\u0131n g\u00fcndeminde ilk s\u0131ralarda yer alan bu konu, ABD’nin bor\u00e7 tavan\u0131na ula\u015f\u0131yor olmas\u0131 nedeniyle, bu tavan\u0131n art\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 zorunlulu\u011fu, aksi taktirde ABD’nin iflas edece\u011fi ihtimali hep vard\u0131 o y\u00fczden s\u00fcpriz de\u011fil. May\u0131s ay\u0131nda yazd\u0131\u011f\u0131m ”Sona do\u011fru” adl\u0131 yaz\u0131mda da bunu dile getirmi\u015ftim. Ba\u015fkan Obama ile Demokrat kanat temsilcileri, bor\u00e7 tavan\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fckselme karar\u0131n\u0131 kendi i\u00e7lerinde almak i\u00e7in yeterli oya sahip olmad\u0131klar\u0131 i\u00e7in Cumhuriyet\u00e7ilerin deste\u011fine ihtiya\u00e7 duymu\u015flard\u0131. \u0130lk ba\u015fta demokratlar\u0131n zenginlerden al\u0131nacak varl\u0131k vergisi tipindeki bir \u00f6nerisi, \u00fczerinde uzla\u015famayan kongre \u00fcyeleri yapt\u0131klar\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler sonucunda \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k s\u00fcrede 2.4 trilyon dolarl\u0131k harcama kesintisine gitmek i\u00e7in anla\u015fm\u0131\u015f ve \u00fclkenin 14.3 trilyon dolar olan bor\u00e7 limitini y\u00fckseltmekte mutab\u0131k kalm\u0131\u015flard\u0131. Kongre ile g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler s\u00fcrerken kredi derecelendirme kurulu\u015fu S&P kamu harcamalar\u0131ndaki kesintinin minimum 4 trilyon dolar olmas\u0131n\u0131 gerekti\u011fini savunmu\u015f ve karar sonras\u0131 Moody’s ve Fitch’in \u00fclkenin 3A olan kredi notunu de\u011fi\u015ftirmeyeceklerini a\u00e7\u0131klarken S&P sesiz kalm\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n

Cumartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc ise yay\u0131nlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 raporda a\u00e7\u0131klanan b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 indirim plan\u0131n\u0131n, bor\u00e7 sorununu dengeye oturtmada yetersiz oldu\u011funu ,plan\u0131n ger\u00e7ekle \u00f6rt\u00fc\u015fmedi\u011fini \u00f6ne s\u00fcrerek kredi notunu 2A olarak downgrade ederken not g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc de negatifte tuttu. S&P’a g\u00f6re ,ABD’de kamu borcu\/GSMH oran\u0131 2011 sonu i\u00e7in %74 tahmini varken, bu oran 2015 i\u00e7in %79, 2021 i\u00e7in ise %85 olacak. Fitch ve Moody’s ABD’nin kredi notunu de\u011fi\u015ftirmeselerde ,not
\ng\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc negatifte tutuyor olu\u015flar\u0131,k\u0131sa vadede bu iki kurumun da ayn\u0131 karar\u0131 teyit edebilece\u011fi ihtimalini g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor.Raporun tamam\u0131n\u0131 okuduktan sonra benim akl\u0131mda rakamlar ve plan\u0131n uygulanabilirli\u011finin haricinde ABD’de siyasi bir \u00e7eki\u015fme sonucu bu karar\u0131n \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde bir izlenim uyand\u0131. 235.kurulu\u015funu kutlayan ABD, 1941’den bu yana ,krebilitesi hep y\u00fcksek rakamlar al\u0131rken \u00fclkenin ilk siyahi ba\u015fkan\u0131 olan Obama, yakla\u015fan 2012 se\u00e7imlerinde bu kez aleyhine”change” tepkisini alabilir.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

S&P’DEN \u0130ND\u0130R\u0130MLERE DEVAM<\/strong><\/p>\n

Cumartesi ABD’nin kredi notunu indiren S&P ,Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc Mortgage kurulu\u015flar\u0131 Fannie Mae ve Freddie Mac, ABD Tar\u0131msal Kredi Sistemi, ABD h\u00fck\u00fcmeti destekli uzun vadeli tahvillerin ve ABD Federal Mevduat Sigorta Fonunun (FDIC) kredi notlar\u0131n\u0131 da 3A ‘dan 2A ‘ya indirdi.Not indirim gerek\u00e7esinde,kurulu\u015flar\u0131n do\u011frudan ABD h\u00fck\u00fcmetine bel ba\u011flamas\u0131 ve bor\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n ekonomideki dalgalanmaya a\u00e7\u0131k olmas\u0131 nedeniyle bu karar\u0131n al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Bu karar ile zaten diken \u00fcst\u00fcnde olan sermaye piyasalar\u0131 yeni dipleri g\u00f6rd\u00fc.<\/p>\n

EMT\u0130A VEYA ALTIN<\/strong><\/p>\n

Ba\u015fl\u0131ktaki ”veya” kelimesi alt\u0131n\u0131n di\u011fer emtialardan bariz \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde ayr\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamaya yetermi bilmem ama alt\u0131n haricindeki t\u00fcm emtialar y\u0131lba\u015f\u0131ndan beri en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelere inmi\u015f durumda. Ekonomide beklenen resesyon endi\u015fesinin talepteki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc getirece\u011fi ihtimali sat\u0131\u015flar i\u00e7in yeterli sebep. Platin y\u0131llarca alt\u0131n\u0131n iki kat\u0131 fiyatla de\u011ferlenirken \u015fu s\u0131ralar platin ile ayn\u0131 fiyattan i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Bak\u0131r 9 usd fiyat\u0131 ile son sekiz ay\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesini g\u00f6rd\u00fc.Petrol fiyatlar\u0131 %6 d\u00fc\u015ferek 2010
\nKas\u0131mdan bu yana en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesinde. \u0130sko\u00e7ya teslimatl\u0131 BRENT ham petrol\u00fc 80 dolar seviyesini test ederken , ABD Teksas ham petrol\u00fc olarak bilinen NYMEX petrol\u00fc % 6.9 d\u00fc\u015ferek varil ba\u015f\u0131na 75 dolarlar\u0131 g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Hisse senedi ve emtiadan \u00e7\u0131kan paralar \u0130svi\u00e7re frang\u0131 ve alt\u0131n gibi g\u00fcvenli limanlara
\nkay\u0131yor. \u0130svi\u00e7re frang\u0131 TL paritesi 2.50 seviyeleri g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Alt\u0131n ise Fed A\u00e7\u0131k Piyasa Komitesi (FOMC) toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde yeni zirveler yazmaya devam etti. Alt\u0131n i\u00e7in destek diren\u00e7 seviyeleri ve teknik bak\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 kalmad\u0131\u011f\u0131na inan\u0131yorum ,olay\u0131n art\u0131k spek\u00fclasyon hatta manip\u00fclasyon y\u00f6n\u00fc oldu\u011fu ortada.<\/p>\n

Trend hala yukar\u0131 ,hem resesyon ,hemde olas\u0131 QE3 ihtimali fiyatlar\u0131 tetiklese de balon fiyatlar\u0131n ayn\u0131 h\u0131zla d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc ak\u0131ldan \u00e7\u0131kmamal\u0131.Mesela s\u00fcrekli alt\u0131n al\u0131m\u0131 yapan fonlar yerine kontroll\u00fc al\u0131\u015f yap\u0131lmal\u0131,kar veya short pozisyonlardaki zarar k\u0131sa tutulmal\u0131 .<\/p>\n

YEN\u0130 B\u0130R \u0130NS\u0130DER TRAD\u0130NG VAKASI MI?<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u0130nsider trading ,dilimize i\u00e7erden \u00f6grenenlerin ticareti olarak \u00e7evrilebilir. Ekonomi cephesinden anlam\u0131 ise ,sermaye piyasasi ara\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n de\u011ferini etkileyebilecek, hen\u00fcz kamuya a\u00e7\u0131klanmam\u0131\u015f bilgileri kendisine veya \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc kisilere menfaat sa\u011flamak amac\u0131yla kullanarak sermaye piyasasinda i\u015flem yapanlar aras\u0131nda f\u0131rsat e\u015fitligini bozacak \u015fekilde haks\u0131z yarar sa\u011flamak veya olas\u0131 bir zarar\u0131 bertaraf etmektir.<\/p>\n

Kongreden \u00c7ar\u015famba Bor\u00e7 tavan\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fckseltilmesi ile ilgili gece gelen olumlu haberler ve ABD’nin bor\u00e7 itfa tarihinden \u00f6nce bunu ba\u015farm\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131 piyasalar \u00fczerinde olumlu bir hava b\u0131rakmas\u0131 beklenirken Per\u015fembe ve Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc beklenmedik d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fler ya\u015fand\u0131. ABD borsalar\u0131ndaki h\u0131zl\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f d\u00fcnya borsalar\u0131nda da yank\u0131 bulunca iki g\u00fcnde %10 ‘a yak\u0131n bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Ama kimse bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe ya anlam veremedi yada d\u00fczeltme hareketi yorumu yap\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\n

Cumartesi S&P’nin karar\u0131 ayyuka \u00e7\u0131k\u0131nca bu haberin \u00f6nceden piyasa oyuncular\u0131na aktar\u0131lma ihtimali ak\u0131llara geldi.<\/p>\n

FED, FA\u0130ZLERE, 2013 ORTASINA KADAR DOKUNMAYACAK<\/strong><\/p>\n

Piyasan\u0131n merakla bekledi\u011fi Fed A\u00e7\u0131k Piyasa Komitesi (FOMC) d\u00fcn ak\u015fam faizlerle ilgili karar\u0131n\u0131 beklenildi\u011fi gibi a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Toplant\u0131da faizler \u015fu anki seviyesi olan 0- % 0.25 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda sabit b\u0131rak\u0131ld\u0131. Toplant\u0131da ayr\u0131ca faizlerin 2013 ortas\u0131na kadar ayn\u0131 seviyelerde tutulaca\u011f\u0131 ve ekonomik toparlanma i\u00e7in baz\u0131 politika ara\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n devreye sokulaca\u011f\u0131 belirtildi. Bu politika ara\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015fta QE3 diye alg\u0131lanmas\u0131 borsalara sert sat\u0131\u015flar getirsede ,sonra t\u00fcm devlet varl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n eskisi ile ayn\u0131 \u015fekilde i\u015flem
\ng\u00f6rmeye devam edecek a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 borsalara al\u0131m getirdi ve Mart 2009 dan bu yana en h\u0131zl\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015fini ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdi. Muhtemelen FED,resesyon ve deflasyon riski g\u00f6rmeden QE3 ‘\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klamayacak. Yani piyasa art\u0131k canl\u0131y\u0131 g\u00f6rmek istiyor; t\u00fcketici g\u00fcveni ,b\u00fcy\u00fcme rakamlar\u0131 umut vermedik\u00e7e trendin olumluya d\u00f6nmesini beklemek pek mant\u0131kl\u0131 de\u011fil.<\/p>\n

\u00d6mer DEM\u0130R<\/strong><\/p>\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Avrupa ve ABD’den kaynaklanan bor\u00e7 sorunlar\u0131n\u0131n ayyuka \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131, ABD bor\u00e7 tavan\u0131 tart\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n\u0131n siyasi bir krize d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fc ve S&P’den gelen kredibilite notu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":9192212,"featured_media":188259,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[6199,5005],"tags":[1887,67557,75194,49447,14813,195946,77947,195988],"class_list":["post-78641","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ekonomi","category-manset","tag-abd","tag-abd-borc","tag-abd-borclari","tag-abd-ekonomi","tag-abd-ekonomisi","tag-ekonomi","tag-insider-trading","tag-omer-demir"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/78641","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/9192212"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=78641"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/78641\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/188259"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=78641"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=78641"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=78641"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}