{"id":79820,"date":"2011-08-22T15:07:10","date_gmt":"2011-08-22T12:07:10","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/?p=79820"},"modified":"2022-09-11T15:30:57","modified_gmt":"2022-09-11T12:30:57","slug":"ferrarisini-yapan-bilge-5149","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/ferrarisini-yapan-bilge-5149\/","title":{"rendered":"Ferrarisini yapan bilge"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"<\/a><\/h2>\n

NationalT\u00fcrk yorumcular\u0131m\u0131zdan Ekonomi ve Borsa uzman\u0131 \u00d6mer Demir \u2018in, bu haftaki \u201cFerrarisini yapan bilge\u201d adl\u0131 makalesini sizlerle payla\u015f\u0131yoruz.<\/h2>\n

T\u00fcrkiye’nin cari i\u015flemler hesab\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131, y\u0131l\u0131n ilk alt\u0131 ay\u0131nda, ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131na g\u00f6re % 122,9 artarak, 45 milyar 8 milyon dolar oldu. Bu geli\u015fmeye en b\u00fcy\u00fck katk\u0131y\u0131, d\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n 25 milyar 436 milyon ABD dolar tutar\u0131nda artarak 46 milyar 431 milyon dolara ula\u015fmas\u0131 yapt\u0131.<\/p>\n

Haziran 2011 itibar\u0131yla banka ve \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r toplam\u0131nda y\u0131ll\u0131k bor\u00e7 \u00e7evirme oran\u0131n\u0131n %112\u2019 gibi sevindirici bir rakama ula\u015fmas\u0131 piyasalar\u0131n cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n riskini hala dikkate ald\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131, yaln\u0131z bunun \u015fimdilik finanse ediliyor olmas\u0131 sebebiyle g\u00f6rmemezlikten geldi\u011finin kan\u0131t\u0131 ama AB bor\u00e7 krizine ili\u015fkin endi\u015feler,k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin beklenilenden yava\u015f ilerliyor olu\u015fu ve muhtemel Ortado\u011fu\u2019da ya\u015fanabilecek s\u0131cak hareketlilik devam ederken bor\u00e7 \u00e7evirme konusunda daha temkinli olunmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Cari a\u00e7\u0131k ile bu geli\u015fmelere siyasilerden yine cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n ge\u00e7ici oldu\u011fu, yine a\u00e7\u0131klanan d\u00f6nemden sonraki s\u00fcrede d\u00fc\u015fece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc gibi, umut vaad eden a\u00e7\u0131klamalar ard\u0131 ard\u0131na geldi.<\/p>\n

Tek su\u00e7lu enerji mi?<\/h3>\n

\u00d6zellikle d\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 odakl\u0131 cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n olu\u015fmas\u0131na sebep olan kalemlerden biri olarak g\u00f6sterilen enerji ithalat\u0131 konusu yine g\u00fcndemde. AK partinin 100. kurulu\u015f y\u0131ld\u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fc hedefleri aras\u0131nda en iddial\u0131 maddelerden biri olan enerjide T\u00fcrkiye Cumhuriyeti\u2019nin , 2023 y\u0131l\u0131na kadar \u00fclkedeki t\u00fcm hidrolik potansiyelin ekonomiye kazand\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131, r\u00fczgarda 20 bin Megavata (MW)ula\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131, jeotermalda 600 MW, n\u00fckleer enerjinin toplam enerjide ki pay\u0131n\u0131n en az % 10\u2019a \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lmas\u0131 gibi hedefi ile \u015fu an enerjide ki %74 olan d\u0131\u015fa ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 daha makul seviyelere \u00e7ekme hedefi i\u00e7in yenilenebilir enerji kaynaklar\u0131 i\u00e7in yap\u0131lan giri\u015fimlerin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyede oldu\u011fu ortada.<\/p>\n

\u015eu an ki 50 bim megawaat\u2019l\u0131k enerji kapasitesi,n\u00fcfus ve ekonomik geli\u015fmi\u015flik ile do\u011fru orant\u0131l\u0131 art\u0131yor. T\u00fcrkiye do\u011falgazda % 97 oran\u0131nda d\u0131\u015fa ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 durumda \u00fcstelik d\u00fcnyaca ispatlanm\u0131\u015f petrol rezervlerinin % 73’\u00fcne, gaz rezervlerinin % 72’sine sahip b\u00f6lgelerle en yak\u0131n kom\u015fu olu\u015fu bile ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 minimize etmiyor. Petrol ve do\u011falgaz gibi fosil yak\u0131t maliyetlerinin artmas\u0131 ile fosil yak\u0131t ihra\u00e7 eden \u00fclkelerin \u00f6n\u00fcnde iki se\u00e7enek kal\u0131yor; n\u00fckleer enerji yada yenilenebilir enerji.<\/p>\n

Ka\u00e7ak elektrik kullan\u0131m\u0131 sebebiyle santrallerden \u00fcretilen enerjinin b\u00f6lgelere g\u00f6re %40’a
\nvaran kay\u0131plara ula\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin n\u00fckleer santral maceras\u0131 tam 40 y\u0131ld\u0131r bir t\u00fcrl\u00fc \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclemedi. Son olarak Mersin Akkuyu\u2019da yap\u0131lacak olan n\u00fckleer tesis i\u00e7in, her biri 1200 megavat g\u00fcc\u00fcnde olacak 4 reakt\u00f6r kurulmas\u0131 kararla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Projeyi yap-i\u015flet modeli yapmay\u0131 \u00fcstlenen Rus Superfin firmas\u0131 ile fiyat konusunda anla\u015famayan Ankara ,fiyat\u0131 yar\u0131 yar\u0131na indirmeyi kabul ettirerek hafta i\u00e7i nihayet anla\u015fmaya vard\u0131.<\/p>\n

Anla\u015fma ile,Rus Superfin firmas\u0131n\u0131n ilk fiyat teklifi olan 1 kilowatt saati 21.13 $\u2019dan ,12.35 $\u2019a, 15 y\u0131ll\u0131k sabit fiyat garantisi ile sonu\u00e7land\u0131. Japonya\u2019daki deprem ile tekrar g\u00fcndeme gelen n\u00fckleer santrallerindeki g\u00fcvenlik tehtidine son olarak Almanya \u00fclkedeki reakt\u00f6rleri kapatma karar\u0131 alm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. \u00c7evre kurulu\u015flar\u0131nca s\u00fcrekli ele\u015ftirilen Akkuyu santralinde olas\u0131 bir tsunami tehlikesine kar\u015f\u0131 sismik incelemeler 2012 ortas\u0131na kadar devam edecek. \u00c7evresel Etki De\u011ferlendirmesi (\u00c7ED) raporunu almaya hak kazanmas\u0131 durumunda 2013\u2019de yap\u0131m\u0131na ba\u015flanacak tesisin; 2019 y\u0131l\u0131nda, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin elektrik ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131n % 8\u2019ini kar\u015f\u0131layaca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.Yenilenebilir enerji kanununun ge\u00e7i\u015finin ard\u0131ndan yenilenebilirenerji kaynaklar\u0131ndan r\u00fczgar, g\u00fcne\u015f ve jeotermal enerjilerinin T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin acil enerji politikas\u0131na dahil edilmesi gerekiyor.<\/p>\n

Borsalar ay\u0131 piyasas\u0131na girdi<\/h3>\n

Ge\u00e7en hafta Amerika\u2019l\u0131 Yat\u0131r\u0131m Bankas\u0131 Morgan Stanley, daha \u00f6nce % 4,2 olarak a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131\u011f\u0131
\nk\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahmininin bu y\u0131la ili\u015fkin \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fc % 3,9’a d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc ve hemen ard\u0131ndan
\nCitigroup\u2019da benzer bir kararla 2011 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in ABD, GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminini Avrupa’daki bor\u00e7 krizi ve ABD ile Euro B\u00f6lgesi’nin resesyona girme ihtimalinin olmas\u0131n\u0131 gerek\u00e7e g\u00f6stererek, % 1.7\u00b4den 1.6\u00b4ya revize etti. Yine ard\u0131ndan medyada ,Avrupal\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck bankalar\u0131n ABD’de de ki \u015fubelerinin olas\u0131 bir denetimde s\u0131n\u0131fta kalaca\u011f\u0131 haberleri, Temmuz ay\u0131nda ABD\u2019de 2.el konut sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n % 3.5 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc ,haftal\u0131k i\u015fsizlik maa\u015f\u0131 ba\u015fvurular\u0131n\u0131n 9 bin art\u0131\u015fla 408 bine y\u00fckselmesi zaten piyasalar\u0131n ay\u0131 e\u011filiminde oldu\u011fu bug\u00fcnlerde h\u0131zl\u0131 sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n ya\u015fanmas\u0131na sebep oldu.<\/p>\n

Yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki olumsuz hava \u0130MKB\u2019ye de bula\u015ft\u0131. G\u00fcn i\u00e7i teknik seviyelere koyulan stop-loss\u2019lar\u0131n \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 ile ya\u015fanan volatile % 5 seviyelerini g\u00f6sterdi. Teknik seviyelerin k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 D\u00fcnya ekonomilerindeki 2011\u2019in ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin tepe yapt\u0131ktan sonra gerileme s\u00fcrecine girdi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor ,muhtemelen 3-6 ay aras\u0131 piyasada ay\u0131lar hakim olacak.\u2018\u2019Para uyuyarak b\u00fcy\u00fcmez\u2019\u2019 diye bir slogan vard\u0131 90\u2019l\u0131 y\u0131llar \u0130mar Bankas\u0131 reklamlar\u0131nda. Y\u00fcksek getiri vaadiyle yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar paralar\u0131n\u0131n m\u00fcr\u00fcvvetlerini g\u00f6rmek istiyorlard\u0131 ama riskin oldu\u011fu yerde kay\u0131plarda olacakt\u0131.<\/p>\n

Bug\u00fcnlerde de piyasada VIX korku endeksinin 45 puan seviyelerinde gezdi\u011fi,bu derece
\nyo\u011fun volatile ya\u015fan\u0131rken ,bu havalarda \u2018\u2019az risk- az hareket\u2019\u2019 daha \u00e7ok kazand\u0131r\u0131r unutmamak gerek.<\/p>\n

\u00d6mer Demir<\/strong><\/p>\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

NationalT\u00fcrk yorumcular\u0131m\u0131zdan Ekonomi ve Borsa uzman\u0131 \u00d6mer Demir \u2018in, bu haftaki \u201cFerrarisini yapan bilge\u201d adl\u0131 makalesini sizlerle payla\u015f\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":9192212,"featured_media":188069,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[6199,5005,220816],"tags":[78864,78865,14420,863,78862,5069],"class_list":["post-79820","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ekonomi","category-manset","category-uzak-dogu","tag-cari-islemler","tag-cevresel-etki-degerlendirmesi","tag-dogalgaz","tag-japonya","tag-petro","tag-turkiye-cumhuriyeti"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/79820","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/9192212"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=79820"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/79820\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/188069"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=79820"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=79820"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=79820"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}