{"id":81345,"date":"2011-09-12T12:03:36","date_gmt":"2011-09-12T09:03:36","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/?p=81345"},"modified":"2019-03-28T11:30:23","modified_gmt":"2019-03-28T08:30:23","slug":"hem-firtina-hem-liman-2689","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/hem-firtina-hem-liman-2689\/","title":{"rendered":"Hem F\u0131rt\u0131na ,Hem Liman – II"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"<\/a><\/h2>\n

NationalT\u00fcrk yorumcular\u0131m\u0131zdan Ekonomi ve Borsa uzman\u0131 \u00d6mer Demir \u2018in, bu haftaki \u201c Hem F\u0131rt\u0131na ,Hem Liman – II \u201d adl\u0131 makalesini sizlerle payla\u015f\u0131yoruz.<\/h2>\n

1944 y\u0131l\u0131nda Bretton Woods anla\u015fmas\u0131 ile alt\u0131n standart\u0131na ge\u00e7ildi\u011fi d\u00f6nem ,fiyat\u0131 27 dolara sabitlenen alt\u0131n\u0131n ons fiyat\u0131 ,1971\u2018de ABD\u2019nin bu anla\u015fmay\u0131 tek tarafl\u0131 bozma karar\u0131 ile 40 dolara \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015ft\u0131. 1980 \u2018e kadar ons fiyat\u0131 her y\u0131l ortalama %10 artm\u0131\u015f ve 100 dolara ula\u015fm\u0131\u015ft\u0131.1980 sonras\u0131 petrol krizi sebebiyle fiyat\u0131 850 dolara t\u0131rmanan , yat\u0131\u015fan kriz sonras\u0131 fiyat\u0131 s\u00fcrekli d\u00fc\u015ferek 230 dolar\u0131 g\u00f6ren sar\u0131 madeni, 850 ons\/dolar seviyelerinden alan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar ,ellerindeki alt\u0131n\u0131 dolar baz\u0131nda ayn\u0131 fiyattan satabilmek i\u00e7in 27 y\u0131l beklemek zorunda kalm\u0131\u015flard\u0131.<\/p>\n

Ekonomik durum gittik\u00e7e k\u00f6t\u00fcle\u015fiyor<\/h3>\n

ABD;Ge\u00e7en haftaya damgas\u0131n\u0131 vuran \u00f6nemli geli\u015fme ,Ba\u015fkan Obama\u2019n\u0131n uzun s\u00fcreden beri beklenen konu\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n sat\u0131\u015fba\u015flar\u0131 oldu. Kas\u0131m 2012\u2018de yap\u0131lacak se\u00e7imler \u00f6ncesi ,ABD ekonomisini d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fc darbo\u011fazdan kurtararak hem muhalefete kar\u015f\u0131 averaj kazanmak, hemde 2. kez ba\u015fkanl\u0131k koltu\u011funa oturmak isteyen Obama\u2019dan gelen i\u015fsizli\u011fi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmek ,yeni istihdam olanaklar\u0131 sa\u011flamak ve b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi art\u0131rmak i\u00e7in 447 milyar dolarl\u0131k bir plan\u0131 Kongre\u2019ye sundu. \u2018\u2019Derhal hayata ge\u00e7irin” \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131s\u0131 yapan Obama, bu plan ile ekonomisi durma noktas\u0131na gelen ABD \u2018nin tekrar b\u00fcy\u00fcmede s\u0131\u00e7rama ya\u015fayanaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 iddia etti. Plan, temelde altyap\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n artt\u0131lmas\u0131 i\u00e7in yerel makamlara 35 milyar dolar aktar\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 , k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck i\u015fletmeler ve \u00e7al\u0131\u015fanlara vergi indirimini buna ba\u011fl\u0131 i\u015fsizlik kayd\u0131 yapt\u0131ran bir Amerika\u2019l\u0131y\u0131 i\u015fen alan \u015firkete vergi indirimi i\u00e7erirken,muhalefetteki Cumhuriyet\u00e7iler taraf\u0131ndan s\u00fcrekli ele\u015ftirilen ve reddedilen zengin Amerikal\u0131lar\u0131n daha fazla vergi al\u0131nmas\u0131 gibi radikal kararlar i\u00e7eriyor. Obama\u2019n\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131\u011f\u0131 plan beklentileri kar\u015f\u0131lamam\u0131\u015f olacak ki piyasa halen diken \u00fcst\u00fcnde duruyor. Piyasalar\u0131n g\u00f6z\u00fc bu geli\u015fmelerden sonra FED\u2019in 20-21 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de yapaca\u011f\u0131 toplant\u0131ya kilitlendi.<\/p>\n

AB;Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Jean-Claude Trichet\u2019in Euro b\u00f6lge ekonomisinde ‘a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc risklerin’ artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirten a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 ile PIIGS \u00fclkelerinde \u00fclkelerinde s\u00fcregelen bor\u00e7 sorununun devam ediyor haberleri piyasalarca Avrupa bor\u00e7 krizinin derinle\u015fmekte oldu\u011fu y\u00f6n\u00fcnde endi\u015feler giderilememi\u015fken, Yunanistan’\u0131n iflas riski bir kez daha fiyatlanmaya ba\u015fland\u0131. Bu arada Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131, Y\u00f6netim Kurulu \u00dcyesi J\u00fcrgen Stark’\u0131n ki\u015fisel nedenlerle g\u00f6revinden ayr\u0131laca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 da borsalara sat\u0131\u015f getirken t\u00fcm bu geli\u015fmeler CDS’lerin fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131nda yeni zirveler yazd\u0131rmas\u0131na neden oluyor. Yunanistan’a ait 5 y\u0131ll\u0131k CDS’ler 3100 baz puanla rekor k\u0131rd\u0131. Euro\/Dolar paritesi 1.3650 ile 7 ay\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesinde. Avrupa\u2019da ekonomik temelli sorun kendi sorunlar\u0131na \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm \u00fcretemiyor olu\u015fu ile kendi siyasi karar mekanizmas\u0131n\u0131n olmay\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan ibaret.
\nK\u0131saca ortada bir ger\u00e7ek var;Hem ABD\u2019de ,hemde Avrupa ekonomilerinde canlanma durdu ve yerini yava\u015flamaya ve durgunlu\u011fa b\u0131rakt\u0131. Piyasalar t\u00fcm senaryolara kar\u015f\u0131 pozisyon al\u0131yor. Sadece resesyon ihtimalinin g\u00fcndeme gelmesinden korkuluyor. K\u00fcresel krizde ikinci dip veya yeni bir kriz beklentisi de g\u00fc\u00e7lendi. Resesyon asl\u0131nda \u00fclke ekonomilerinin tek korkulu y\u0131k\u0131c\u0131 r\u00fcyas\u0131 ,onun d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda her ko\u015fulun panzehiri orta ve uzun vadede bulunabilir.<\/p>\n

Alt\u0131n bu geli\u015fmelerin neresinde?<\/h3>\n

Tarih sadece tekerr\u00fcrden ibaret ise yani 1980\u2018y\u0131l\u0131ndaki petrol krizi ile ba\u015flayan s\u00fcre\u00e7 ile alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n o y\u0131llarda yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 8 katl\u0131k y\u00fckseli\u015f ve ABD \u00c7al\u0131\u015fma Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 enflasyon hesaplamalar\u0131 dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, yap\u0131lan analize g\u00f6re alt\u0131n fiyat\u0131n\u0131n 2100-2200 dolar seviyesiyelerine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 beklenebilir.<\/p>\n

Tabi alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n gelece\u011fi ile ilgili tahmin y\u00fcr\u00fct\u00fcrken sadece enflasyon oranlar\u0131 ile orant\u0131 kurmak mant\u0131kl\u0131 de\u011fil. 80\u2018li y\u0131llarda yat\u0131r\u0131m enstr\u00fcmantali say\u0131s\u0131 ile \u015fimdiki ortamda var olan yat\u0131r\u0131m enstr\u00fcmantalleri say\u0131s\u0131 k\u0131yas bile edilemeyecek kadar farkl\u0131 oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in yat\u0131r\u0131m talebi bir noktada durabilir. Alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131 tarihinde ilk kez platin fiyat\u0131n\u0131 ge\u00e7ti.Birka\u00e7 y\u0131l \u00f6ncesi platin alt\u0131n fiyat\u0131n\u0131n 2 kat\u0131 i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyordu. Merkez Bankalar\u0131 taleplerinin durmas\u0131 ,AB ailesinin sevilmeyen \u00e7ocuklar\u0131ndan krizdeki Portekiz’in rezervlerinin %80\u2018inin alt\u0131ndan olu\u015fuyor olu\u015fu,bu pozisyonlar\u0131n kar ile kapan\u0131\u015f\u0131 alt\u0131n fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 frenleyecek bir s\u00fcreci do\u011furur.<\/p>\n

ABD a\u00e7\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 alt\u0131n satarak kapat\u0131r m\u0131?<\/h4>\n

D\u00fcnya Alt\u0131n Konseyi (GFMS, World Gold Council) verilerine g\u00f6re D\u00fcnya Merkez bankalar\u0131nda 33000 ton alt\u0131n var. En fazla alt\u0131n rezervi bulunduran \u00fclke, yine 11000 ton ile ABD. (IMF: 3000 ton +ABD;8000 ton).D\u00fcnya rezervinin neredeyse \u00fc\u00e7te birini dolayl\u0131 olarak elinde tutan ABD \u2018nin y\u00fcksek emtia fiyatlar\u0131 bir bak\u0131ma i\u015fine geliyor ama reel ekonomiden \u00e7\u0131kan para da moralini bozmuyor de\u011fil. Bakal\u0131m ABD\u2019nin me\u015fhur \u2018\u2019Plunge Protect\u0131on Team\u2019\u2018i bu kez alt\u0131n i\u00e7in sahneye \u00e7\u0131kacak ve yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 borsaya \u00e7ekmeyi ba\u015faracakm\u0131.<\/p>\n

T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de Alt\u0131n\u2019a yat\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n ge\u00e7mi\u015fi<\/h5>\n

T\u00fcrkiye alt\u0131n yat\u0131r\u0131m talebi bak\u0131m\u0131ndan 2011 ikinci \u00e7eyre\u011finde, k\u00fcresel pazarda en \u00e7ok b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131 kaydeden \u00fclkelerden biri oldu. D\u00fcnya Alt\u0131n Konseyi verilerine g\u00f6re T\u00fcrkiye 13.6 ton\u2019luk talep ile,ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemine g\u00f6re % 144 art\u0131\u015f kaydetti. 2010 ikinci \u00e7eyre\u011fi ile kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda alt\u0131n talebinini rekor fiyatlara ra\u011fmen g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc oldu\u011fu s\u00f6ylenilebilir. Birde fiziki talebe son y\u0131llarda bankalar\u0131n ka\u011f\u0131t \u00fczerinde alt\u0131n hesaplar\u0131 a\u00e7arak sat\u0131\u015f yapt\u0131klar\u0131 bu pozisyonlar\u0131nda bahsi ge\u00e7en rakamlarda var olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ger\u00e7e\u011finide katarsak T\u00fcrk halk\u0131n\u0131n krizlerde de\u011fi\u015fmez yat\u0131r\u0131m arac\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131n oldu\u011fu ger\u00e7e\u011fi ile kar\u015f\u0131la\u015f\u0131r\u0131z. D\u00fcnya Alt\u0131n Konseyi raporunda T\u00fcrk halk\u0131 i\u00e7in,alt\u0131n\u0131n geleneksel en pop\u00fcler yat\u0131r\u0131m arac\u0131 oldu\u011funu belirterek\u2019\u2019Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, y\u00fcksek alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131 al\u0131\u015fk\u0131n, ayn\u0131 zamanda alt\u0131n\u0131 sermayeyi koruma niteli\u011fi olu\u015funun yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 alt\u0131na y\u00f6nelti\u011fini\u2019\u2019 belirtmi\u015fler. Mesk\u00fck ve Ziynet alt\u0131n dedi\u011fimiz alt\u0131nlar\u0131 basan Darphane ve Damga Matbaas\u0131 Genel M\u00fcd\u00fcrl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc verilerine g\u00f6re de rekor alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131 ,talebi \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde azaltmam\u0131\u015f.<\/p>\n

\u00d6mer DEM\u0130R<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

NationalT\u00fcrk yorumcular\u0131m\u0131zdan Ekonomi ve Borsa uzman\u0131 \u00d6mer Demirin, bu haftaki Hem F\u0131rt\u0131na ,Hem Liman – II adl\u0131 makalesini sizlerle payla\u015f\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":9192212,"featured_media":187822,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[6199,5005],"tags":[66226,19708,77420,70747,75347,75348,10463,195988,70746],"class_list":["post-81345","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ekonomi","category-manset","tag-avrupa-merkez-bankasi","tag-baskan-obama","tag-bretton-woods","tag-dunya-altin-konseyi","tag-hem-firtina","tag-hem-liman","tag-merkez-bankasi","tag-omer-demir","tag-world-gold-council"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/81345","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/9192212"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=81345"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/81345\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/187822"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=81345"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=81345"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=81345"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}