{"id":91144,"date":"2011-12-12T10:09:56","date_gmt":"2011-12-12T08:09:56","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/?p=91144"},"modified":"2019-03-28T11:30:19","modified_gmt":"2019-03-28T08:30:19","slug":"euro-basarilar-5146","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/euro-basarilar-5146\/","title":{"rendered":"Euro\u2019ya Ba\u015far\u0131lar"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"<\/a>NationalTurk yorumcular\u0131m\u0131zdan Ekonomi ve Borsa uzman\u0131 \u00d6mer Demir \u2018in, bu haftaki \u201cEuro\u2019ya Ba\u015far\u0131lar\u201d adl\u0131 makalesini sizlerle payla\u015f\u0131yoruz.<\/h2>\n

Para piyasalar\u0131n\u0131n haftalard\u0131r bekledi\u011fi AB\u2019nin i\u00e7inde bulundu\u011fu bor\u00e7 krizini \u00e7\u00f6zmek i\u00e7in Br\u00fcksel’de d\u00fczenlenen AB liderler zirvesi nihayet sonu\u00e7land\u0131. Toplant\u0131da al\u0131nan yeni kararlar i\u00e7in \u2018\u2019sorun \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcld\u00fc \u2018\u2019demek i\u00e7in erken olsa da, AB gibi \u00e7ok ba\u015fl\u0131 devleri bar\u0131nd\u0131ran bir konseyde ayn\u0131 fikirler etraf\u0131nda birle\u015filmesi bile umut verici oldu. 27 \u00fclkeden olu\u015fan Avrupa Birli\u011finin, Euro\u2019ya dahil 17 \u00fclkesinden ,\u0130ngiltere haricindeki di\u011fer AB \u00fcyelerince mutabakata var\u0131lan anla\u015fmaya g\u00f6re ;yeni ”Mali s\u00f6zle\u015fme” daha \u00f6nceki Maastricht Antla\u015fmas\u0131nda da belirtilen kriterleri ihtiva ediyor. \u00dcyelerden ,B\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 \/GSYH oran\u0131 % 3’\u00fcn\u00fc a\u015fan \u00fclkelere uygulanacak yapt\u0131r\u0131m ve Avrupa Finansal \u0130stikrar Fonu\u2019nun (EFSF) bor\u00e7 verme hacminin ,2012 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n Temmuz ay\u0131na kadar 500 milyar Euro seviyesine y\u00fckseltilmesi karar\u0131 ile bankalar\u0131n\u0131n IMF \u2018e 200 milyar Euro kredi verece\u011fi ve bu paran\u0131n kald\u0131ra\u00e7 i\u015flemler sayesinde D\u0130BS(Devlet \u0130\u00e7 Bor\u00e7lanma Senetleri)lere aktar\u0131laca\u011f\u0131 tahminleri hafta sonuna girerken borsalar\u0131n moralini yerine getirdi. Ad\u0131na PIIGS\u2019ler denilen sevilmeyen AB \u00fclkelerinin bor\u00e7 krizi ile bula\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131,ard\u0131ndan g\u00fcven ve y\u00f6netim krizine d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fen AB\u2019de asl\u0131nda de\u011fi\u015fen tek fikir,ayn\u0131 gemide olundu\u011funun hat\u0131rlanmas\u0131 ve domuzlar i\u00e7in de\u011fil \u00fclke menfaatlerinin \u00f6n plana \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor olu\u015fu.Yoksa birlikte Yunanistan i\u00e7in ;Yunanistan\u2019da sadece saatler \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131r \u2018\u2019s\u00f6z\u00fc hala hat\u0131rlan\u0131yor .<\/p>\n

Ya sonra<\/strong><\/p>\n

AB\u2019nin bu riskli deney fikri i\u00e7in bir \u2018\u2019B\u2019\u2019 plan\u0131 varm\u0131 bilinmez ama yat\u0131r\u0131m \u015firketleri Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u00b4nin tamamen da\u011f\u0131lmas\u0131 halinde olu\u015fabilecek kur tahminlerini yapmaya ba\u015flad\u0131lar bile .PIIGS \u00fclkeleri i\u00e7in yap\u0131lan \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcler birli\u011fin muhtemel da\u011f\u0131lmas\u0131 ile olu\u015fabilecek kur hareketlerini g\u00f6zler \u00f6n\u00fcne seriyor. ING\u2019ye g\u00f6re Yunan Drahmisi ,Alman Mark\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda % 80 de\u011fer kaybedecek. Portekiz Esk\u00fcdo\u00b4su ve \u0130spanyol Peseta\u00b4s\u0131 % 50, T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131 ve \u0130rlanda Poundu y\u00fczde 25 d\u00fc\u015fecek. ING\u00b4nin tahminleri da\u011f\u0131lma ya\u015fanmas\u0131 halinde Euro B\u00f6lgesi bunal\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 ve AB\u2019nin amiral gemisi Almanya\u2019n\u0131n durgunlu\u011fa girece\u011fini yans\u0131t\u0131yor. Olas\u0131 da\u011f\u0131lman\u0131n \u00e7ekirdek Avrupa \u00fclkelerinde % 25\u2019e varan daralmalar ile \u00e7ift haneli k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclme rakamlar\u0131 da cabas\u0131. Piyasa da var olan genel kan\u0131 PIIGS\u2019lerden ar\u0131nm\u0131\u015f bir \u2018\u2019\u00c7ekirdek Euro\u2019\u2019nun g\u00fc\u00e7lenece\u011fi kan\u0131s\u0131na g\u00f6re ,Hollanda Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n olas\u0131 da\u011f\u0131lma ile Euro\u2019nun ser\u00fcvenine ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ilk seviyeler olan 0.85 parite seviyelerine d\u00fc\u015fece\u011fi senaryolar\u0131 olduk\u00e7a karamsar.<\/p>\n

S&P Yine Ba\u015frolde<\/strong><\/p>\n

ABD\u2019ye ait kredi notu indirimi sonras\u0131 yap\u0131lan misillemeler ile karar\u0131 ele\u015ftiren,ayn\u0131 karar sonras\u0131 ba\u015fkan\u0131 de\u011fi\u015ftirilen S&P, ise Avrupa i\u00e7in aceleci davran\u0131yor.Avrupa Birli\u011fi ile Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n \u00f6nde gelen bankalar\u0131n\u0131n hatta Avrupa Finansal \u0130stikrar Fonu(EFSF) nun da dahil oldu\u011fu kredi notlar\u0131n\u0131n S&P taraf\u0131ndan negative izlemeye al\u0131nmas\u0131 ,AB cephesinde problemin sadece parasal de\u011fil siyasi ve y\u00f6netimsel olu\u015funun g\u00f6stergesi olarak yorumlanabilir. Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n \u00f6nde gelen bankalar\u0131ndan Deutsche Bank ,Commerzbank, BNP Paribas, Unicredit ve Societe Generale\u2019nin not g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc de\u011fi\u015ftirmesini ,di\u011fer bir kredi derecelendirme kurulu\u015fu Moody\u00b4s\u2019in Credit Agricole ve BNP Paribas\u00b4n\u0131n uzun vadeli kredi notlar\u0131n\u0131 bir kademe indirerek Aa3,Societe Generale \u00b4in uzun vadeli kredi notunu bir kademe indirdi verisi ard\u0131 ard\u0131na geldi.<\/p>\n

Krizin U\u011framad\u0131\u011f\u0131 Tek \u00fclke<\/strong><\/p>\n

1999\u2019 y\u0131l\u0131nda Florin ile Ortak para birimine ge\u00e7en Hollanda krizin ger\u00e7ek anlamda te\u011fet ge\u00e7ti\u011fi bir \u00fclke. Kamu Borcu \/Milli Gelir d\u00fczeyi ,Gulden sonras\u0131 %58 ile sabit kalan Hollanda\u2019da enflasyon %2.2 seviyelerinden %1.3 e inmi\u015f durumda. \u0130\u015fsizlik oran\u0131da %4.5 ile D\u00fcnyan\u0131n en iyisi olma yolunda ilerliyor.<\/p>\n

Euro\u2019ya Hayatta Ba\u015far\u0131lar<\/strong><\/p>\n

Pen\u00e7esine ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 ekonomik kriz salg\u0131n\u0131na a\u011f\u0131r bir darbe indirebilmek ad\u0131na Br\u00fcksel’de toplanan Avrupal\u0131 liderler \u00e7o\u011funluk olarak anla\u015fmaya varsalar da muhalif seslerin hakl\u0131 serzeni\u015fleri yine g\u00fcndemdeydi. Fransa Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Nicolas Sarkozy’nin, son AB Anla\u015fmas\u0131 ile ilgili “kabul edilemez” talepler oldu\u011fu y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 ile “\u0130ngiltere’nin daha kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131 olmas\u0131n\u0131 beklerdim” s\u00f6zlerine kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k Cameron’dan cevap gecikmedi.\u0130ngiltere Ba\u015fbakan\u0131 Cameron’\u0131n “Euroya hayatta ba\u015far\u0131lar diliyorum” s\u00f6zlerine hak vermemek elde de\u011fil .Keza eldeki sonu\u00e7lar da Euro\u2019ya ge\u00e7en \u00fclkelerin b\u00fcy\u00fcme ve i\u015fsizlik verilerinde eski performans\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steremedi\u011finin kan\u0131t\u0131. A\u015fa\u011f\u0131da D\u00fcnyan\u0131n en bor\u00e7lu \u00fclkeleri tablosu var fazla s\u00f6ze gerek yok rakamlar konu\u015fuyor.<\/p>\n

\u201cTicaretin ilk kural\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 korumakt\u0131r\u201d Bankerlik Sanat\u0131 ,1775<\/p>\n

\u00d6MER DEM\u0130R<\/strong><\/p>\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

NationalTurk yorumcular\u0131m\u0131zdan Ekonomi ve Borsa uzman\u0131 \u00d6mer Demir \u2018in, bu haftaki \u201cEuro\u2019ya Ba\u015far\u0131lar\u201d adl\u0131 makalesini sizlerle payla\u015f\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":9192212,"featured_media":186328,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[6199],"tags":[87506,67558,1719,87508,57098,26053,9273,1668,195988,69443,19891],"class_list":["post-91144","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ekonomi","tag-ab-ulkeleri","tag-abd-kredi-notu","tag-avrupa-birligi","tag-bnp-paribas","tag-cameron","tag-euro","tag-fransa-cumhurbaskani-nicolas-sarkozy","tag-hollanda","tag-omer-demir","tag-piigs-ulkeleri","tag-sp"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/91144","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/9192212"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=91144"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/91144\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/186328"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=91144"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=91144"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=91144"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}