{"id":91933,"date":"2011-12-19T13:23:45","date_gmt":"2011-12-19T11:23:45","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/?p=91933"},"modified":"2019-03-28T11:30:19","modified_gmt":"2019-03-28T08:30:19","slug":"yeni-para-senaryolari-965","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/yeni-para-senaryolari-965\/","title":{"rendered":"Yeni Para Senaryolar\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"<\/a>NationalTurk yorumcular\u0131m\u0131zdan Ekonomi ve Borsa uzman\u0131 \u00d6mer Demir \u2018in, bu haftaki \u201cYeni Para Senaryolar\u0131\u201d adl\u0131 makalesini sizlerle payla\u015f\u0131yoruz.<\/h2>\n

Bor\u00e7 krizinin vir\u00fcs gibi yay\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131, ge\u00e7ti\u011fi her yerde kartopu gibi b\u00fcy\u00fcyen ivmeyle yoluna
\ndevam etti\u011fi bug\u00fcnlerde ,AB \u2018de ki b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131klar\u0131 ve kamu bor\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n temel kayna\u011f\u0131 olarak g\u00f6sterilen \u2018g\u00fcven ve otorite\u2019\u2019sorunu hala S.O.S veriyor. Y\u0131l sonu yakla\u015f\u0131rken piyasalar\u0131n bekledi\u011finden fazla ya\u015fanan volaritenin temel kayna\u011f\u0131 da yine,Avrupal\u0131 liderlerin bor\u00e7 sorunununa \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm getiremeyecekleri endi\u015felerinden kaynaklan\u0131yor. Euro \u2018nun dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda,bu hafta, son 3 aydan bu yana g\u00f6sterdi\u011fi en h\u0131zl\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ile euro\/dolar paritesinde son 1 y\u0131l\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelerini g\u00f6rmesine neden oluyor.<\/p>\n

ABD\u2019nin bor\u00e7 tavan\u0131 sorunlar\u0131 nedeniyle euro lehine d\u00f6nen iki para biriminin oran\u0131,AB\u2019de sorunlar\u0131n herge\u00e7en g\u00fcn su y\u00fcz\u00fcne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131 bu g\u00fcnlerde tersine bir hareketle Dolar\u2019\u0131n de\u011fer kazanmas\u0131na neden oluyor.Asl\u0131nda iki tarafta\u2019da k\u00f6t\u00fc haberler sat\u0131n al\u0131n\u0131p piyasada r\u00fczgar\u0131n y\u00f6n\u00fc belli olsa da ,global piyasalar\u0131n t\u00fcm\u00fcnde kur sistemine olan g\u00fcvensizlik problemi \u2018\u2019yeni parasal sisteme olan ihtiyac\u0131\u2019\u2019 bir kez daha g\u00f6zler \u00f6n\u00fcne seriyor.<\/p>\n

D\u00fcnya\u2019da halen kullan\u0131lmakta olan Bretton Woods parasal sisteminin mevcut hali ile art\u0131k devam etmeyece\u011fi,mevcut system \u00fczerinde ,gerekli reform niteli\u011finde g\u00fcncellemelerin yap\u0131lmamas\u0131 halinde ,sistemin bu y\u00fck\u00fc art\u0131k kald\u0131ramayaca\u011f\u0131na dair a\u00e7\u0131klamalar parasal sistemin en b\u00fcy\u00fck orta\u011f\u0131 \u0130ngiltere taraf\u0131ndan dillendirmeye ba\u015fland\u0131 bile.\u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131 Ekonomist\u2019lerinin haz\u0131rlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ara\u015ft\u0131rma raporunda, bir\u00e7ok de\u011ferlendirmeye g\u00f6re, hali haz\u0131rdaki sistemin, 1944\u2019de 2.D\u00fcnya sava\u015f\u0131 sonras\u0131 ABD ve \u0130ngiltere \u00f6nc\u00fcl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde kurulan Bretton Woods sistemine g\u00f6re daha k\u00f6t\u00fc bir performans g\u00f6sterdi\u011fine vurgu yap\u0131l\u0131yor.O\u00a0y\u0131llarda Amerika taraf\u0131ndan desteklenen white plan ile \u0130ngiltere taraf\u0131ndan desteklenen Keynes plan\u0131n\u0131n birle\u015fimi ile kurulan sistem temelde d\u00f6viz kurunu stabilize edip,mali politikalar\u0131 \u00fclke y\u00f6neticilerinin\u00a0ellerine teslim etmi\u015ftir. Bretton Woods\u2019un en \u00f6nemli sonucu, sava\u015f sonras\u0131 d\u00fcnya ekonomik sisteminde alt\u0131n ve Amerikan dolar\u0131n\u0131n baz al\u0131nacak olmas\u0131yd\u0131. \u0130\u015fte ABD\u2019yi s\u00fcper g\u00fc\u00e7 yapan bu anla\u015fma , ABD\u2019nin d\u00fcnya alt\u0131n rezervinin \u00fc\u00e7te ikisine sahip oldu\u011fu ger\u00e7e\u011finin yans\u0131mas\u0131 olarak, Amerikan dolar\u0131n\u0131n rezerv para birimi olmas\u0131 sonucunu do\u011furuyordu. ABD\u2019nin 2.D\u00fcnya Sava\u015f\u0131 sonras\u0131 bu karar\u0131 ,siyasi ,askeri g\u00fcc\u00fcne ekonomik g\u00fc\u00e7te ekleyerek \u00fclkeyi d\u00fcnya lideri yapm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. 1973\u2019te alt\u0131n fiyat hareketlenmeleri sonras\u0131 tekrar t\u00f6kezleyen sistem,bu g\u00fcne kadar k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck de\u011fi\u015fikliklerle geldi. Rezerv alt\u0131n para sistemi ge\u00e7mi\u015fte Osmanl\u0131 \u0130mparatorlu\u011funda da kendini g\u00f6stermi\u015f, paralar as\u0131rlar boyu alt\u0131n ve g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015ften olu\u015fmu\u015ftu.Yani paran\u0131n alt\u0131n kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 olmas\u0131n\u0131 bir kenara b\u0131rak\u0131n; Osmanl\u0131da \u2018\u2019paran\u0131n kendisiydi alt\u0131n\u2019\u2019. 2008 Lehman krizi\u00a0ile sars\u0131lan k\u00fcresel finansal sisteme bir kez daha kan\u0131tlanan bula\u015fma riski bu kadar fazla iken \u00fclke ekonomilerini ,d\u0131\u015f \u015foklara kar\u015f\u0131 korumak \u00fczere yeni bir balans ayar\u0131 art\u0131k yap\u0131lmal\u0131.<\/p>\n

Art\u0131k s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilirli\u011fi tart\u0131\u015fmal\u0131 hale gelen AB i\u00e7in yeni yol haritas\u0131 \u00e7izilmeden muhtelif senaryolar tart\u0131\u015f\u0131lmaya ba\u015fland\u0131 bile. Bulundu\u011fu co\u011frafi konum,ortak din anlay\u0131\u015f\u0131 ve AB\u2019nin Yunanistan\u2019\u0131 t\u00fcketici pazar\u0131 olarak g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc ile tarihteki Yunan medeniyetlerinin Avrupa\u2019ya etkisi gibi sebepler ile bir \u015fekilde AB\u2019ye giren Yunanistan,Avrupa\u2019da patlak veren krizde t\u00fcm su\u00e7lar\u0131n \u00fczerine y\u0131k\u0131lmas\u0131 sebebiyle yine senaryolar\u0131n merkezinde. AB\u2019nin yoluna Yunanistan\u2019s\u0131z devam etmesini destekleyen g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f temelde Yunanistan\u2019a ait borcunun bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc yeniden yap\u0131land\u0131rabilse bile, \u015firketlerin rekabet g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc olu\u015fturmadan, ekonomik\u00a0b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olmayaca\u011f\u0131 ger\u00e7e\u011fine dayan\u0131yor. 2000 y\u0131l\u0131nda Yunanistan\u2019\u0131n AB\u2019nin 12. \u00dcyesi olmas\u0131na izin verilmesinin, Maastricht Anla\u015fmas\u0131\u2019nda belirlenen kriterler de\u011ferlendirilirken b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131klar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n h\u00fck\u00fcmet\u00e7e gizlendi\u011fine dair dedikodular\u0131n art\u0131k belgelenmesi de bu senaryoyu halk\u0131 k\u0131l\u0131yor. 1980\u2019lerden bu yana rekor b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131klar\u0131yla k\u0131s\u0131r d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fc k\u0131ramayan Yunanistan\u2019\u0131n ,kendi para birimine geri d\u00f6nerek yerel paras\u0131 drahmiyi deval\u00fce etme re\u00e7etesi \u015fimdilik tek \u00e7\u0131kar yol gibi duruyor.<\/p>\n

Almanya\u2019n\u0131n Euro\u2019dan ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f\u0131<\/h3>\n

AB\u2019nin amiral gemisi Almanya\u2019n\u0131n yeniden yerel para birimi Mark\u2019a ge\u00e7i\u015fi senaryosu da art\u0131k Alman halk\u0131n\u0131n bile dillendirdi\u011fi ,PIIGS \u00fclkeleri bizim cebimizden yiyiyor mant\u0131\u011f\u0131na dayan\u0131yor. Uzmanlar Almanya\u2019n\u0131n Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019ni terk etmesi halinde, g\u00fcney \u00fclkelerinin euro kullanmaya devam edebilecekleri ve bor\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 daha normal seviyelerde tutabilecekleri g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcn yans\u0131mas\u0131.Bu sayede Alman mark\u0131,yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar i\u00e7in tekrar alternatif para olacak ve euro kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda en az % 30 de\u011fer kazanacak .<\/p>\n

\u00c7ekirdek AB<\/h4>\n

\u00c7ekirdek AB senaryosu ise Euro i\u00e7in en radikal senaryo. Almanya Ba\u015fbakan\u0131 Angela Merkel\u2019in , \u00f6nceki g\u00fcnk\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131nda, d\u00fcnyan\u0131n geri kalan\u0131nda neler oldu\u011funa bakmaks\u0131z\u0131n yeni bir Avrupa olu\u015fturulmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini s\u00f6yleyen a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131 bu fikrin \u00f6nc\u00fcs\u00fc. Art\u0131k Maastricht kriterleri\u2019nin \u00f6tesinde daha kat\u0131 kurallar\u0131n koyularak \u00fcyelerinin se\u00e7ilece\u011fi ve bu sert kriterlerce yeni rota \u00e7izilip yola devam edilece\u011fi , yarat\u0131lan bu \u00e7ekirdek grubun daha derin ekonomik entegrasyon, vergi ve mali politikas\u0131 olu\u015fturabilece\u011fi fikride \u015fimdilik imkans\u0131z gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcnen fikirlerden sadece bir ka\u00e7\u0131 .<\/p>\n

G\u00fcne sar\u0131l\u0131n ve yar\u0131na m\u00fcmk\u00fcn oldu\u011fu kadar az g\u00fcvenin – \u00adYunan Filozof ,Horace<\/p>\n

\u00d6mer DEM\u0130R<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

NationalTurk yorumcular\u0131m\u0131zdan Ekonomi ve Borsa uzman\u0131 \u00d6mer Demir \u2018in, bu haftaki \u201cYeni Para Senaryolar\u0131\u201d adl\u0131 makalesini sizlerle payla\u015f\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":9192212,"featured_media":186220,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[6199],"tags":[1887,49447,71426,2517,77420,26053],"class_list":["post-91933","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ekonomi","tag-abd","tag-abd-ekonomi","tag-almanya-basbakani-angela-merkel","tag-angela-merkel","tag-bretton-woods","tag-euro"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/91933","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/9192212"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=91933"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/91933\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/186220"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=91933"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=91933"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=91933"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}