{"id":94773,"date":"2012-01-16T10:01:56","date_gmt":"2012-01-16T08:01:56","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/?p=94773"},"modified":"2019-03-28T11:30:17","modified_gmt":"2019-03-28T08:30:17","slug":"ab-yildizlar-kayarken-856","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/ab-yildizlar-kayarken-856\/","title":{"rendered":"AB\u2019de Y\u0131ld\u0131zlar Kayarken"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"<\/a>NationalTurk yorumcular\u0131m\u0131zdan Ekonomi ve Borsa uzman\u0131 \u00d6mer Demir \u2018in, bu haftaki \u201cAB\u2019de Y\u0131ld\u0131zlar Kayarken\u201d adl\u0131 makalesini sizlerle payla\u015f\u0131yoruz.<\/h2>\n

Ge\u00e7en yaz ABD \u2018ye ait b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n azalt\u0131lmas\u0131\u00a0konusunda kongreden onay alan plan\u0131n, bor\u00e7 krizini\u00a0\u00e7\u00f6zmekte yeterli olmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 gerek\u00e7e g\u00f6stererek ABD\u00a0tarihinde ilk kez kredi notunu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrme radikalli\u011fini\u00a0g\u00f6steren kredi derecelendirme kurulu\u015fu S&P, bu kez her ne kadar gerek\u00e7eleri onaylan\u0131p\u00a0desteklensede zamanlama konusunda yine radikal bir kararla aralar\u0131nda Fransa,\u00a0Avusturya ve \u0130talya’n\u0131n da yer ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 Euro B\u00f6lgesi’nin 9 \u00fclkesinin kredi notlar\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc.<\/p>\n

Uluslararas\u0131 kredi derecelendirme kurulu\u015fu Standard and Poor’s bu karar ile Fransa,\u00a0Avusturya, \u0130talya, \u0130spanya, Portekiz, Malta K\u0131br\u0131s Rum Kesimi, Slovenya ve Slovakya ya ait\u00a0kredi notlar\u0131 negative etkilenirken,Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n amiral gemisi Almanya\u2019ya ait AAA olan\u00a0kredi notunu de\u011fi\u015ftirmeyerek teyit etmesi \u2018\u2019\u00e7ekirdek AB\u2018\u2019 s\u00f6ylentilerinin ayyuka \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131\u00a0bu g\u00fcnlerde bu fikri destekler d\u00fczeyde.Almanya d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda en y\u00fcksek nota sahip di\u011fer\u00a0\u00fclkelerden olan Finlandiya, L\u00fcksemburg ve Hollanda’n\u0131n da not g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmlerinin negative\u00a0oldu\u011funu bilmekte yarar var. Keza \u00e7ekirdek AB olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 ger\u00e7ekle\u015firse bu d\u00f6rt \u00fclke ba\u015f\u0131\u00a0\u00e7ekecekler aras\u0131nda olacak.<\/p>\n

Yeni bir \u0130nsider Trading vakas\u0131!<\/h3>\n

Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc hem T\u00fcrkiye hemde Avrupa\u2019da ya\u015fanan sert sat\u0131\u015f dalgas\u0131 i\u00e7in herkes bahaneler\u00a0ararken 6 saat sonra, Avrupa\u2019dan gelen not indirim haberleri asl\u0131nda i\u00e7erden\u00a0\u00f6\u011frenenenlerin ticaretini birkez daha g\u00f6zler \u00f6n\u00fcne serdi. Milyar dolarl\u0131k i\u015flemlerin\u00a0ger\u00e7ekl\u015ftirildi\u011fi piyasada kazanan yine haberi ilk \u00f6\u011frenenler
\noldu.<\/p>\n

Euro b\u00f6lgesindeki temel sorun<\/h4>\n

\u015eu s\u0131ralar en moda s\u00f6ylemlerden biri AB\u2019ye ak\u0131l vermek hastal\u0131kl\u0131 \u00fclkelere re\u00e7ete vermek\u00a0gibi. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc g\u00fcn ge\u00e7miyor ki abs\u00fcrt bir yakla\u015f\u0131mla ak\u0131l verilmesin. Ekonomistlerin bence\u00a0temel hatas\u0131 PIIGS temelli hastal\u0131klar\u0131 t\u00fcm AB \u2018ye mal ederek yanl\u0131\u015f hastaya yanl\u0131\u015f ila\u00e7\u00a0vermekten ibaret .Bula\u015f\u0131c\u0131l\u0131k\u201d (contagion) riskinin bu derece yo\u011fun oldu\u011fu bir ortamda\u00a0Yunanistan\u2019a ait faiz oranlar\u0131nda ,CDS\u2019lerinde ba\u015flayan sorunun , kolayca \u0130talya , \u0130spanya\u00a0ve Fransa\u2019ya s\u0131\u00e7ram\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131 temelinde ayn\u0131 fakat sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 farkl\u0131 izler b\u0131rakmas\u0131 bunun\u00a0sonucu denebilir. Euro b\u00f6lgesinin art\u0131k kronikle\u015fen \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc sorunu olan kamu sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn\u00a0borcu ise alarm vermeye devam ediyor. Sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 yava\u015f yava\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fclen kamu borcu sorunu\u00a0resesyon habercisi.<\/p>\n

Y\u00fcksek b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131klar\u0131 ve b\u00fcy\u00fcme g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fcn bu derece zay\u0131f olu\u015fu\u00a0bor\u00e7lanma faizlerini tetikleyince zaten bor\u00e7 tuza\u011f\u0131na d\u00fc\u015fen AB i\u00e7in bor\u00e7\u00a0s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilirli\u011finin imkans\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor .Farkl\u0131 hastaya farkl\u0131 re\u00e7ete kavram\u0131n\u0131n\u00a0desteklendi\u011fi ba\u015fka bir kavram ise \u00fclkeler aras\u0131nda \u201c\u00f6demeler dengesi\u201d. Kabaca hastal\u0131kl\u0131\u00a0AB i\u00e7in Almanya\u2019ya da ayn\u0131 ila\u00e7 veriliyor Yunanistana\u2019da. Almanya gibi cari dengesi s\u00fcrekli\u00a0fazla bir \u00fclke ile Cari a\u00e7\u0131k ve tasarruf a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olarak kamu sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnden dolay\u0131s\u0131yla\u00a0b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131klar\u0131ndan kaynaklanan, toplam harcamalar\u0131n y\u00fcksek, i\u00e7 talebin y\u00fcksek hi\u00e7bir\u00a0sekt\u00f6rde rekabet\u00e7i ve ihtisasla\u015fm\u0131\u015f bir \u00fclke olamayan Yunanistan\u2019a da ayn\u0131 ila\u00e7lar.<\/p>\n

PIIGS\u2019ler i\u00e7in tek \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm yollar\u0131ndan biri olan paralar\u0131n\u0131 devalue etme ihtimalide\u00a0olamay\u0131nca sorunun kayna\u011f\u0131na inilemiyor. Halbuki kur serbest olsayd\u0131 kuru deval\u00fce etmek\u00a0PIIGS\u2019lerin \u00fcretkenli\u011fini artt\u0131raca\u011f\u0131ndan sorunlara ,siyasi karar alma mekanizmas\u0131\u00a0destekli daha etkin \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm getirecekti.<\/p>\n

\u00d6MER DEM\u0130R<\/strong><\/p>\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

NationalTurk yorumcular\u0131m\u0131zdan Ekonomi ve Borsa uzman\u0131 \u00d6mer Demir \u2018in, bu haftaki \u201cAB\u2019de Y\u0131ld\u0131zlar Kayarken\u201d adl\u0131 makalesini sizlerle payla\u015f\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":9192212,"featured_media":94775,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[6199],"tags":[4067,90494,2173,83837,2160,17,1668,77947,15,10,33770,195988,12188,66223,69443,5848,29947,8316],"class_list":["post-94773","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ekonomi","tag-ab","tag-ab-ekonomi","tag-avusturya","tag-euro-bolgesi","tag-finlandiya","tag-fransa","tag-hollanda","tag-insider-trading","tag-ispanya","tag-italya","tag-luksemburg","tag-omer-demir","tag-omer-demir-yazilari","tag-piigs","tag-piigs-ulkeleri","tag-portekiz","tag-slovakya","tag-slovenya"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/94773","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/9192212"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=94773"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/94773\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/94775"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=94773"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=94773"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=94773"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}