{"id":95759,"date":"2012-01-26T10:01:35","date_gmt":"2012-01-26T08:01:35","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/?p=95759"},"modified":"2019-03-28T11:30:17","modified_gmt":"2019-03-28T08:30:17","slug":"resesyon-963","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/resesyon-963\/","title":{"rendered":"Resesyon kap\u0131da"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"<\/a>NationalTurk yorumcular\u0131m\u0131zdan Ekonomi ve Borsa uzman\u0131 \u00d6mer Demir\u2018in, bu haftaki “Resesyon kap\u0131da” adl\u0131 makalesini sizlerle payla\u015f\u0131yoruz.<\/h3>\n

Ger\u00e7ekler daima hamasetten, yi\u011fitlikten \u00fcst\u00fcnd\u00fcr derler. 2008 Lehman bat\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n izleri d\u00fcnya ekonomileri \u00fczerinde hissedilirken, IMF\u2019in son yay\u0131nlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00f6zellikle ABD b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminlerine pembe g\u00f6zl\u00fcklerle bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131 bu iyimser tablo yerini h\u00fcsrana b\u0131rakabilir.<\/p>\n

Bu hafta d\u00fcnyan\u0131n \u00e7e\u015fitli \u00fclkelerinde a\u00e7\u0131klanan ekonomik datalar b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin yak\u0131n oldu\u011funu \u00f6zellikle geli\u015fmekte olan ekonomilerin b\u00fcy\u00fcme trendini devam ettirdi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyordu. VIX , Korku ya da Volatilite Endeksinin, 3 Ekim’den bu g\u00fcne yakla\u015f\u0131k % 60\u2019tan fazla d\u00fc\u015ferek 17 puan seviyelerini g\u00f6rmesi borsalar i\u00e7in y\u00fckselme trendinin habercisi olsa da ,asl\u0131nda piyasa PIIGS kaynakl\u0131 AB problemlerinin tamamen \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc sonucundan de\u011fil \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm yolunda, ekonomilerin istedi\u011fi cevaplar\u0131 ald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n yan\u0131t\u0131 olarak de\u011ferlendiriliyor.<\/p>\n

AB\u2019den gelen hizmet sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn h\u0131zla b\u00fcy\u00fcme s\u00fcrecine girdi\u011fi i\u015fsizlik oranlar\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ile istihdam oranlar\u0131ndaki h\u0131zl\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015fin sonucu olarak piyasan\u0131n,ekonomilere g\u00fcven duydu\u011funun i\u015faretleri olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcrken, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcpriz bir \u015fekilde neredeyse s\u0131f\u0131ra yak\u0131n tuttu\u011fu faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131n 2014 \u00fcn d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011fine kadar de\u011fi\u015fmeyece\u011fini g\u00fcvence olarak vermesi, resesyon beklentisi i\u00e7inde olan piyasa oyuncular\u0131n\u0131 rahatlat\u0131c\u0131 bir etki yapt\u0131. Keza FED 2008 den bu yana \u00fclke ekonomisine milyarlarca dolar pompalamak i\u00e7in s\u0131f\u0131ra yak\u0131n tuttu\u011fu faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131n hem t\u00fcketici hemde m\u00fcte\u015febbislere rahatlatma hedefini kendine misyon edinmi\u015f durumda. IMF \u2019in son a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131\u011f\u0131 K\u00fcresel Ekonomik G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm Raporu\u2019nda yer alan global, b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminini % 3,3\u2019e a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nde revize etmi\u015f ve IMF in defaatle vurgulad\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc olan piyasadaki en b\u00fcy\u00fck problemin yitirilmi\u015f olan g\u00fcvenin yeniden sa\u011flanmas\u0131 oldu\u011funu vurgulam\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n

AB B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nin 2012 y\u0131l\u0131 itibariyle %0.5 daralaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131, en erken, 2013\u2019te en iyi ihtimalle % 0,8 oran\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcyebilece\u011fini tahmini de a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nde revizyon edilmi\u015f durumda. AB ekonomisine ait temel politika gereksinimleri hala alarm verirken, orta vadeli mali dengesizliklerin g\u00fcn y\u00fcz\u00fcne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131,finansal sistemler \u00fczerindeki onar\u0131m ve reformlar\u0131n zaman\u0131nda ve h\u0131zl\u0131 bir \u015fekilde yap\u0131lamamas\u0131n\u0131n sonucu olarak 2012 y\u0131l\u0131nda hafif bir resesyona do\u011fru gitmesinin beklenilmesi \u015fa\u015f\u0131rt\u0131c\u0131 olmamal\u0131.<\/p>\n

Finansal ko\u015fullar\u0131n k\u00f6t\u00fcle\u015fti\u011fi, b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentilerinin zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc risklerin y\u00fcksek ivme ile h\u0131z kazand\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir ortamda ,y\u00fckselen ve geli\u015fmekte olan ekonomilerde b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin de d\u0131\u015f ko\u015fullar\u0131n k\u00f6t\u00fcle\u015fmesi ve i\u00e7 talebin zay\u0131flamas\u0131ndan dolay\u0131 yava\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131 yumu\u015fak ini\u015f s\u00f6zc\u00fc\u011f\u00fc ile dile getiriliyor. Ayr\u0131ca bencede 2008 krizinin patlak verme sebeplerinden en \u00f6nemlisi olan kald\u0131ra\u00e7l\u0131 i\u015flemlerin dillendirilmesi ile Euro b\u00f6lgesi politika yap\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n krizi tetikleyen orta vadeli sorunlar\u0131n \u00fczerine gitmeye y\u00f6nelik yapt\u0131klar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamalar sorunun kayna\u011f\u0131na inilmi\u015f olmas\u0131 sebebiyle cesaret verici. Ama halen EFSF\u2019nin sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 fonlar\u0131n \u00fclkelerce kald\u0131ra\u00e7la \u00e7o\u011falt\u0131lma senaryosu t\u00fcm d\u00fcnya \u00fczerinde sadece uzaktan izleniyor.<\/p>\n

Sa\u011flanan fonlar ekonomileri tatmin etmeyince paray\u0131 ya fotokopi makinas\u0131na koyup \u00e7o\u011faltmak yada kald\u0131ra\u00e7la bol s\u0131f\u0131rl\u0131 g\u00f6stermekten ba\u015fka \u00e7are kalm\u0131yor. E\u011fer fonlama zorluklar\u0131n\u0131 bankalar kald\u0131ra\u00e7larla sonu\u00e7land\u0131rmaya devam ederse ki bu b\u00f6yle gelmi\u015f b\u00f6yle devam edecek, Euro b\u00f6lgesinin bu k\u00f6t\u00fc durumdan korunmas\u0131 imkans\u0131z hale gelir ve gelen resesyon uzun sure ekonomileri sarar.<\/p>\n

\u00d6MER DEM\u0130R<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

NationalTurk yorumcular\u0131m\u0131zdan Ekonomi ve Borsa uzman\u0131 \u00d6mer Demir\u2018in, bu haftaki “Resesyon kap\u0131da” adl\u0131 makalesini sizlerle payla\u015f\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":9192212,"featured_media":95764,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[6199,6748,1],"tags":[4067,26053,83837,14595,12657,16242,7269],"class_list":["post-95759","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ekonomi","category-is-dunyasi","category-nationalturk","tag-ab","tag-euro","tag-euro-bolgesi","tag-imf","tag-issizlik","tag-issizlik-oranlari","tag-resesyon"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/95759","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/9192212"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=95759"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/95759\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/95764"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=95759"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=95759"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=95759"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}