{"id":96171,"date":"2012-01-31T09:37:00","date_gmt":"2012-01-31T07:37:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/?p=96171"},"modified":"2023-12-06T12:35:05","modified_gmt":"2023-12-06T09:35:05","slug":"altin-hala-guvenli-limanmi-9652","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/altin-hala-guvenli-limanmi-9652\/","title":{"rendered":"Alt\u0131n hala g\u00fcvenli liman m\u0131?"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"<\/a>NationalTurk yorumcular\u0131m\u0131zdan Ekonomi ve Borsa uzman\u0131 \u00d6mer Demir\u2018in, bu haftaki \u201cAlt\u0131n hala g\u00fcvenli liman m\u0131?\u201d adl\u0131 makalesini sizlerle payla\u015f\u0131yoruz.<\/h2>\n

2001 \u2018den ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fckselme trendine son 11 y\u0131ld\u0131r aral\u0131ks\u0131z\u00a0devam eden sar\u0131 maden, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131na ilk kez bu kadar kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k
\nsinyaller veriyor. 5 Eyl\u00fcl 2011 de g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc zirve 1903 ons\u00a0de\u011ferinden bug\u00fcne %10 de\u011fer kaybeden ,yine g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc
\nzirvesine g\u00f6re ge\u00e7en y\u0131l sonu %18 lik de\u011fer kayb\u0131 ya\u015fatan alt\u0131n\u00a0i\u00e7in bu y\u0131l ki tahminler aras\u0131 ilk kez bu kadar a\u00e7\u0131k.
\n11 Eyl\u00fcl 2001 sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n ilk saatleri. Reuters\u2019in d\u00fcnyaya ilk\u00a0sundu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fclerde terrorist sald\u0131r\u0131n\u0131n ayr\u0131nt\u0131lar\u0131 belli olduk\u00e7a spot piyasada alt\u0131n\u0131n ons\u2019unda\u00a0rakamlar hep ye\u015file d\u00f6n\u00fcyordu. Gelen a\u00e7\u0131klamalarda d\u00fcnyan\u0131n art\u0131k g\u00fcvenilir olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131, Amerika\u2019n\u0131n ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 bu a\u011f\u0131r darbenin dolara olan g\u00fcveni azaltaca\u011f\u0131na dair a\u00e7\u0131klamalar izliyordu.<\/p>\n

\u0130\u015fte o g\u00fcnlerden bu yana 278 dolardan ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ser\u00fcvenine yakla\u015f\u0131k 6 kat\u0131na \u00e7\u0131karak devam eden\u00a0alt\u0131n rallisini, temelde, ekonomilere olan g\u00fcvensizlik,enflasyon beklentileri ve para arz\u0131ndaki\u00a0de\u011fi\u015fimler-s\u00f6ylentiler destekliyor.<\/p>\n

Para musluklar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131rm\u0131 ?<\/h3>\n

ABD liderli\u011finde ki geli\u015fmi\u015f ekonomiler, \u00fclkelerinde resesyon ihtimalleri art\u0131nca yada maruz\u00a0kald\u0131klar\u0131 ekonomik krizleri a\u015fmak i\u00e7in ya para arz\u0131 yapm\u0131\u015f yada banknot basarak ,para\u00a0musluklar\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7m\u0131\u015flard\u0131r. 1810, 1820-1850’ler, 1870-80’ler, 1930-50 y\u0131lllar\u0131 buna \u00f6rnek, 1980-1990′ y\u0131llar\u0131 ve ABD banka iflaslar\u0131, 1997 Asya krizi, 1998 Rusya krizi ve akabinde 2001 – 2008\u00a0krizleri. B\u00fct\u00fcn krizlerin ortak \u00f6zelli\u011fi verdi\u011fi ortak korku ayn\u0131. Ekonomilerin korkulu r\u00fcyas\u0131\u00a0resesyon senaryosuna kar\u015f\u0131 \u00fclkelere ba\u011f\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131k kazand\u0131rmak ekonomi y\u00f6netiminin ilk \u00f6ncelikleri\u00a0olmu\u015f .Keza ekonomiler \u00fczerinde a\u011f\u0131r tahribatlar yaparak uzun y\u0131llar ekonomileri \u00e7\u0131kmaza sokan\u00a0resesyona kar\u015f\u0131 ilk akla gelen \u00e7arelerden say\u0131lan cansuyu ,piyasalara bol ve ucuz likidite\u00a0vermektir.Krizlere kar\u015f\u0131 halk\u0131n verdi\u011fi ilk tepkilerden biri olan t\u00fcketimi k\u0131sma rit\u00fcelinin ,reel\u00a0sekt\u00f6rde \u00e7abucak yay\u0131larak ,\u00fcretimdeki \u00e7arklar\u0131 durdurmas\u0131 ve bunun sonucunda zaten t\u00fcketime\u00a0dayal\u0131 kurulu olan sistemin h\u0131zl\u0131ca bozulmas\u0131 ekonomi y\u00f6netimlerinin istedi\u011fi son \u015fey.<\/p>\n

Bu hafta\u00a0FED ve AMB\u2019nin para arz\u0131 yapmaya haz\u0131r olmas\u0131 faizleri uzunca bir s\u00fcre daha s\u0131f\u0131ra yak\u0131n tutma\u00a0kararlar\u0131 haberlerinin kulislerde d\u00f6nmesi ile yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n akl\u0131na ilk gelen fikirlerden olan bas\u0131lan\u00a0paran\u0131n mal fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fckseltecek olmas\u0131 ile enflasyonist bask\u0131lar\u0131n olu\u015fabilece\u011fine dair\u00a0beklentilere ilk tepki veren yat\u0131r\u0131m ara\u00e7lar\u0131ndan alt\u0131n, 1660 seviyelerinden 24 saat i\u00e7inde 1730\u00a0seviyelerine \u00e7\u0131kmay\u0131 ba\u015fard\u0131. Zaten i\u015fsizlik oranlar\u0131 ile imalat sanayiden, \u00f6zellikle ABD kaynakl\u0131\u00a0gelen olumlu haberlerin etkisi ,talep yans\u0131mas\u0131 olarak beklenirken ,bu geli\u015fmeye ilave enflasyon\u00a0ihtimalinin olu\u015fmas\u0131 alt\u0131na yeni rekorlar yazd\u0131rabilir di. Ama kan\u0131mca ortada Merkez Bankalar\u0131n\u0131n\u00a0para basaca\u011f\u0131 yada para arz\u0131 yapabilece\u011fi ger\u00e7e\u011fi olsayd\u0131 alt\u0131n b\u00f6yle bir ortamda gecede 50’\u015fer\u00a0puan artarak \u00e7ok h\u0131zl\u0131 bir y\u00fckseli\u015f trendine girer yeni zirvelere ta\u015f\u0131n\u0131rd\u0131. Burada b\u00fcy\u00fck resme daha\u00a0dikkatli bakmak gerekiyor. Medyada yaz\u0131lan \u00e7izilenler ger\u00e7ekmi yoksa ihtimalden mi ibaret,dikkatli takip etmek gerekiyor. \u00dcstelik \u015fayet \u00fclke bor\u00e7 vadelerinin uzat\u0131lmas\u0131 ve swap pozisyonlar\u00a0denilen \u00fclke bor\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n birbiri ile de\u011fi\u015fimi mant\u0131\u011f\u0131na dayanan bir sistem ile yap\u0131lacak arz\u0131n\u00a0enflasyon yaratma ihtimali d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oldu\u011fundan alt\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fckseli\u015fini durdurabilir.<\/p>\n

Y\u0131llard\u0131r alt\u0131n al\u0131n diye bas bas ba\u011f\u0131ran \u00fcnl\u00fc speculator George Soros\u2019un art\u0131k varl\u0131k balonu diye\u00a0i\u015faret etti\u011fi alt\u0131n pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131n %99\u2019unu kapatt\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair haberler, analistlerinin bu y\u0131l alt\u0131n i\u00e7in\u00a0%30’luk de\u011fer kazanma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 ile 2100 dolar ons seviyelerine \u00e7\u0131kaca\u011f\u0131 haberlerinin g\u00f6lgesinde\u00a0kal\u0131yor. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc hi\u00e7bir ger\u00e7ek ,hayalde g\u00f6r\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnden daha g\u00fczel de\u011fildir.<\/p>\n

\u00d6MER DEM\u0130R<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

NationalTurk yorumcular\u0131m\u0131zdan Ekonomi ve Borsa uzman\u0131 \u00d6mer Demir\u2018in, bu haftaki \u201cAlt\u0131n hala g\u00fcvenli liman m\u0131?\u201d adl\u0131 makalesini sizlerle payla\u015f\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":9192212,"featured_media":96173,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[6199,221420],"tags":[57457,75350,47262,6099,195946,8595,84982,16242,59406,7269,221482],"class_list":["post-96171","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ekonomi","category-gezi-parki-olaylari","tag-altin","tag-altin-ekonomisi","tag-altin-yatirimi","tag-borsa","tag-ekonomi","tag-fed","tag-george-soros","tag-issizlik-oranlari","tag-para","tag-resesyon","tag-soros"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/96171","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/9192212"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=96171"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/96171\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/96173"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=96171"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=96171"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=96171"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}