{"id":97556,"date":"2012-02-13T09:40:24","date_gmt":"2012-02-13T07:40:24","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/?p=97556"},"modified":"2019-03-28T11:30:16","modified_gmt":"2019-03-28T08:30:16","slug":"tasarruf-paradoksu-5289","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/tasarruf-paradoksu-5289\/","title":{"rendered":"Tasarruf Paradoksu"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"<\/a>NationalTurk yorumcular\u0131m\u0131zdan Ekonomi ve Borsa uzman\u0131 \u00d6mer Demir\u2018in, bu haftaki \u201cTasarruf Paradoksu\u201d adl\u0131 makalesini sizlerle payla\u015f\u0131yoruz.<\/h2>\n

T\u00fcrkiye \u2018nin son on y\u0131lda ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131 bu g\u00f6z kama\u015ft\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcn ,d\u00fcnya ortalamas\u0131n\u0131n \u00fczerindeki b\u00fcy\u00fcme rakamlar\u0131n\u0131n ,s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilirli\u011finin tart\u0131\u015f\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 bu g\u00fcnlerde ,b\u00fcy\u00fcme lokomotifine en b\u00fcy\u00fck engel say\u0131lan cari a\u00e7\u0131kta zirve ve tasarruf oranlar\u0131ndaki tarihi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck rakamlar ,tehlike \u00e7anlar\u0131n\u0131n habercisi olabilirmi?<\/p>\n

Ba\u015fbakan Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 Ali Babacan\u2019\u0131n, \u015fu anda tasarruf oran\u0131n\u0131n, %12 olan tarihi en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviye d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc ,hane halk\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n % 45’inin ayl\u0131k gelirinden daha fazla harcad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirten a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 ile dikkatleri \u00fczerinde \u00e7eken tasarruf oranlar\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n sonucu iken ,y\u0131llarca enflasyonla ya\u015famaya al\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015f T\u00fcrk halk\u0131 i\u00e7in \u015fu andaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faiz oranlar\u0131 belkide tasarruf oranlar\u0131n\u0131n sebebi. \u015e\u00fcphe faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc olsa bile ,var olmayan faiz lobisi \u2018ne destek verdi\u011fim manas\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kabilir ama de\u011fil. Hatta ortada Faiz lobisini diye bir olu\u015fumda yok. Hem olsa bile bu lobi\u2019ye prim verecek bir ekonomi y\u00f6netimide yok. Durum b\u00f6yle olunca ortada kimin kastedildi\u011fi bilen de yok.O halde faiz lobisi olsa olsa sadece siyasi bir jargon,\u00f6tesi yok.<\/p>\n

\u0130ktisatta Cari a\u00e7\u0131k; yat\u0131r\u0131mlar ile tasarruflar aras\u0131ndaki fark\u0131 g\u00f6sterir. Geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkeler katagorisine s\u00fcrekli kendimizi soktu\u011fumuz analizler, ne yaz\u0131kki tasarruf oranlar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bizleri s\u0131n\u0131f d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcyor. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc T\u00fcrkiye giderek gelirinden daha az tasarruf eden bir \u00fclke haline geliyor. Tasarruf oran\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc T\u00fcrk ekonomisinin en \u00f6nemli yap\u0131sal sorunlar\u0131ndan biri durumunda g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkelerde tasarruf oranlar\u0131 %30 \u2018lar seviyesinde iken bu oran T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de son olarak %12 \u2018nin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kam\u0131yor. Cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n \u00fclke ekonomilerindeki k\u0131r\u0131lgan yap\u0131ya verdi\u011fi destek,uzun vadede ,tasarruflar\u0131n ,yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131nda kalmas\u0131n\u0131n sonucu olarak, kronik bir cari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131na yol a\u00e7arken T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin global yat\u0131r\u0131m g\u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fcn k\u00f6t\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcne neden oluyor. Cari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131ndaki bozulman\u0131n kronik bir durum g\u00f6stermesi, uzun s\u00fcredir uyuyan \u015foklar\u0131 beraberinde getirebilir.<\/p>\n

Tasarruf ?Ama ni\u00e7in?<\/h2>\n

1988-1995 aras\u0131nda ortalama tasarruf oran\u0131 GOP\u2019larda % 23.4 iken, T\u00fcrkiye’de benzer bir rakamla % 22.7 olmu\u015f. 1996-2003 d\u00f6neminde ise tasarruf oran\u0131 GOP\u2019larda %25 seviyesinde iken , T\u00fcrkiye’de % 19.5’e gerileyerek ilk ayr\u0131m\u0131 ortaya koymu\u015f. 2003 -2011 y\u0131llar\u0131 aras\u0131na da yine benzer bir e\u011filim ile T\u00fcrkiye \u2018nin tasarruf e\u011filimi d\u00fc\u015ferken (%12) GOP\u2019larda bu oran %33 \u2018lere istikrarl\u0131 bir \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f sergilemi\u015f .Son onbe\u015f y\u0131lda birlikte ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z bu yolculukta GOP\u2019lardan bizi \u00fc\u00e7te bir oran\u0131nda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcren ayr\u0131\u015fma bizi her zamankinden d\u0131\u015far\u0131ya daha \u00e7ok ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 hale getiriyor. H\u00fck\u00fcmetin Bireysel emeklilik sistemi \u00fczerinden tasarruf oranlar\u0131na yapaca\u011f\u0131 katk\u0131 yeterli de\u011fil,daha fazla te\u015fvik gerekli.<\/p>\n

\u0130ktisatta tasarruf kavram\u0131 anlat\u0131l\u0131rken, bireylerin, t\u00fcketimlerini beklenen ya\u015fam s\u00fcrelerine g\u00f6re yayma fikrinden yola \u00e7\u0131karak bireyin \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece y\u00fcksek tasarruf etmesi, ama emeklilikten sonra birikimlerini harcayacak,emeklili\u011finde s\u0131f\u0131r tasarruf ilkesi ile a\u00e7\u0131klar. Tabi miras b\u0131rakma arzusu yoksa. \u0130\u015fte iktisattaki ya\u015fam Evresi Kuram\u0131 \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde, yeni i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fcne kat\u0131lan hanahalk\u0131n\u0131n emekliye ayr\u0131lanlardan b\u00fct\u00e7elerinde daha fazla tasarruf oran\u0131 ay\u0131rd\u0131klar\u0131na bakarsak neredeyse h\u00fck\u00fcmet politikas\u0131 haline gelen 3 \u00e7ocuk a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131m\u0131na \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131z.Son on y\u0131lda tasarruflardaki bu h\u0131zl\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f demogojik etkilerin bu derece h\u0131zl\u0131 ilerlemeyece\u011fini ger\u00e7e\u011fine dayan\u0131yorsa geriye hanehalk\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca tasarruf nedeninin risk almaktan \u00e7ekinmesi ilkesine ba\u011fl\u0131 ,halk\u0131n gelecekten korkusu ne kadar y\u00fcksekse o kadar fazla tasarruf yapabilece\u011fi tezine ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 bir ihtimali ak\u0131llara getiriyor. Yoksa tasarruf oranlar\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fcn sebebi halk\u0131n T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin gelece\u011fine olan g\u00fcvenimidir?<\/p>\n

\u00d6MER DEM\u0130R<\/strong><\/p>\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

NationalTurk yorumcular\u0131m\u0131zdan Ekonomi ve Borsa uzman\u0131 \u00d6mer Demir\u2018in, bu haftaki \u201cTasarruf Paradoksu\u201d adl\u0131 makalesini sizlerle payla\u015f\u0131yoruz. T\u00fcrkiye \u2018nin son on y\u0131lda ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131 bu g\u00f6z kama\u015ft\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcn ,d\u00fcnya ortalamas\u0131n\u0131n \u00fczerindeki b\u00fcy\u00fcme rakamlar\u0131n\u0131n ,s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilirli\u011finin tart\u0131\u015f\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 bu g\u00fcnlerde ,b\u00fcy\u00fcme lokomotifine en b\u00fcy\u00fck engel say\u0131lan cari a\u00e7\u0131kta zirve ve tasarruf oranlar\u0131ndaki tarihi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck rakamlar ,tehlike \u00e7anlar\u0131n\u0131n habercisi olabilirmi? Ba\u015fbakan …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":9192212,"featured_media":97558,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[6199],"tags":[3666,69441,195946,195988,92838],"class_list":["post-97556","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ekonomi","tag-ali-babacan","tag-cari-acik","tag-ekonomi","tag-omer-demir","tag-tasarruf"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/97556","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/9192212"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=97556"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/97556\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/97558"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=97556"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=97556"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalturk.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=97556"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}