CIA anticipates Chinese attack on Taiwan

The risk of an attack in this decade is increasing.

Despite Russian setbacks in the war of aggression against Ukraine, the US foreign intelligence service CIA assumes that China could take violent action against Taiwan in the future. The Chinese leadership is “uneasy” about Russia’s “strategic failure” in Ukraine, CIA chief William Burns said on Wednesday at the Aspen Security Forum.

But this has less bearing on the question “whether” the Chinese leadership might choose to “use force to control Taiwan” in a few years, and more on the question “how and when they would do it,” he said Burns on.

CIA chief: risk rising towards end of decade

China is likely to learn that “rapid, decisive victories” can only be achieved by pulling together “overwhelming forces”. In addition, China has probably learned that it has to protect its economy against possible sanctions.

China sees Taiwan as a breakaway province that should be reunited with the mainland – if necessary with military force. The Russian war of aggression against Ukraine has recently fueled fears that Beijing could use a similar approach when dealing with Taiwan.

Burns expressed caution at the Aspen Security Forum about speculation that China could take action against Taiwan later this year. “It seems to us that the risks are increasing as this decade progresses,” said the CIA chief.